Igrutinovic: The fall of governments in Berlin and Paris could strengthen the Brussels administration

Milan Igrutinovic, a research associate at the Institute for European Studies, assessed that the fall of governments in Germany and France would not cause significant upheavals within the EU or in relation to the Western Balkans but could strengthen the position of the Brussels administration.

"It is possible that the Brussels administration itself will somewhat strengthen in comparison to Berlin and Paris. Emmanuel Macron has indeed been weakened by the fall of Berlin's government, which lasted only two and a half months. Elections will not be held in France before next summer, and this represents a kind of interregnum and uncertainty. They have just begun fiscal restructuring to achieve budget savings of 60 billion euros. Whether anything will come of this under the new government remains to be seen," Igrutinovic told Kosovo Online.

On the other hand, he emphasizes that the crisis in Germany was caused by the Free Democrats in a situation where the three-party ruling coalition had different directions of action from the start.

"In some way, elections were the only logical solution. It is expected that the CDU will be the new leading party of the future coalition, that is the expectation," Igrutinovic said.

When asked whether the crises in the two most significant EU countries will affect relations with the Western Balkans and the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, this researcher believes it will depend on future US foreign policy but that everything indicates there will be no breakthroughs or creative solutions in the near future.

"The dialogue with Mr. Lajcak remains what it has been for the past two years. Very rare bilateral meetings at the highest political level, and on the technical level, a physical meeting between the two sides occurs only at every third session. Nothing significant is happening there, nor in implementation, and I do not believe there will be any progress in this regard in the near term," Igrutinovic emphasized.

He doubts that there will be changes concerning already agreed documents that should, with EU mediation, lead to normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina.

"When these texts enter official documents in such a large bureaucracy, they simply will not change, nor is there political will on their part to do so. They will continue to insist on implementing them now, in a year, or two years. No particularly creative solutions will emerge," Igrutinovic stressed.

Potential changes might occur with the involvement of a new US administration.

"Will they receive some specific impetus from the next US administration? Maybe. Will they be willing to make significant changes even then? We will see. But I think they will stick to what has already been established, which was once the Franco-German plan. It is now the European Plan. It has been adopted at the European Union level, passed through all committees, even in countries that have not recognized Kosovo, so it is now simply the European Plan, and they will adhere to it because their administration tends to stick to plans even when they are unfulfilled and not entirely aligned with the realities on the ground," Igrutinovic concluded.

He emphasizes that the crises in the two most powerful European states could lead to certain turbulence within the EU.

"There is an apparent stability. It is possible that we are entering a slightly more turbulent period, but not excessively so because Ursula von der Leyen has experience and comes from Germany. She will, in a way, try to assert the authority of the European Commission over these two member states, at least for a period until things completely stabilize," Igrutinovic said.

He assesses that the EU's attention is currently focused on negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, which are expected to follow with the arrival of the new US administration.

"It seems to me that they don’t have much time to focus internally on what France and Germany will do. French and German policies are generally aligned with the main course of European politics. They are not the ones who stand out particularly, nor do specific issues involving their absence of functional governments in Berlin and Paris necessarily negatively impact functioning. So, I expect that with some minor issues, some grinding in their mechanisms, the course that has essentially been anticipated since the last European Parliament elections will simply continue," our interlocutor concluded.