Ivanov: The Western Balkans is important, but the EU faces much greater strategic challenges

Helena Ivanov, a research associate at the Henry Jackson Research Center, assessed that the European Union's recent actions have shown that the Western Balkans is an important region for it and that the normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina would be a significant diplomatic achievement. However, she noted that the EU faces much greater strategic challenges both externally and internally.

"The Western Balkans is an important part of Europe, and resolving the dispute between Belgrade and Pristina and normalizing those relations would be a major diplomatic success. The countries of the Western Balkans want to join the European Union, and the EU has recently been sending more positive messages regarding the bloc's enlargement. So, this region and resolving normalization are important, but on the other hand, there are now much more significant and strategically relevant issues for the European Union," Ivanov said for Kosovo Online.

According to her, these include the war in Ukraine, the EU's positioning concerning the new US administration, and internal tensions within the Union.

"EU member states are facing a very large number of internal problems: the rise of the right, the issue of the migration crisis… I think all these problems will be more relevant than the Western Balkans, even though the Western Balkans is important to the European Union, just not to the same extent as these other issues," Ivanov clarified.

When asked how much Poland's presidency of the EU Council could contribute to progress in the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, this analyst stated that official Warsaw would likely follow the previously established EU policy.

"I believe that whichever state is tasked with this will continue with the same philosophy," she emphasized.

Poland, immediately after assuming the presidency on January 1, stated that the normalization of relations and the implementation of agreements from the dialogue are essential conditions for the progress of Serbia and Kosovo on their EU paths.

Ivanov sees this as an expected message.

"The normalization process has been ongoing for a very long time. In recent years, it has operated like one step forward, two steps back. Both sides have, at various times, refused to fulfill some of their contractual obligations. Albin Kurti's government has recently taken many unilateral actions. Additionally, it has not yet fulfilled its Brussels obligation to establish the Community of Serb Municipalities. I think, in this context, the EU is in a hurry. The EU wants to achieve a diplomatic success, to be able to say that this issue, which has been unresolved for decades, has finally been resolved," Ivanov pointed out.

Hence, as she says, the EU's primary tool will be conditionality.

"I believe this conditionality, requiring that contractual obligations be fulfilled and constructive participation in the normalization process, will remain a condition for accession to the European Union. I also think there will be significant pressure on both sides in these negotiations," Ivanov clarified.

She doubts that Poland’s membership in the group of EU states that have recognized Kosovo will influence its approach to either Belgrade or Pristina.

"I highly doubt it, maybe behind closed doors. I believe that behind closed doors, you might have slightly better or worse cooperation depending on the country of origin, its affinities, and its perspective on things. But I think major and complex issues, such as the normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina, are decided at a much higher level. Once that policy is established, whoever is tasked with fulfilling and implementing that major decision must act in accordance with what has been decided at that higher level. The individual preferences of countries or representatives regarding the normalization process will play a very minimal role in how that process unfolds," Ivanov emphasized.

She explains that the EU has a clearly defined policy, which is why every representative must act "one way or another" in accordance with this "general stance."

"On the other hand, much also depends on Belgrade and Pristina when it comes to normalizing relations. At this point, it is crucial for both Belgrade and Pristina to show the will to make this process succeed, to constructively engage in the process, to work on reducing escalations, and, ultimately, to ensure that the people living in Kosovo, regardless of their ethnicity, can live normal and functional lives. A lot depends on the international community, of course, but much also depends on the authorities in Belgrade and Pristina," Helena Ivanov concluded.