Lunic: In order for Croatia, Albania, and Kosovo to be in a military alliance, NATO, the EU and the OSCE have to approve it

The Executive Director of the Council for Strategic Policies, Nikola Lunic, tells Kosovo Online that any memorandum of cooperation in the field of defense is essentially a non-binding document that merely serves as a legal basis for initiating more serious military cooperation. He stated that the trilateral memorandum signed by the defense ministers of Croatia, Albania, and Kosovo is also a non-binding document that only indicates the potential for greater cooperation. He emphasized that it does not constitute a military alliance.

"Despite some calling this agreement a military alliance, it is not one. For it to be recognized as such, NATO and the European Union would have to approve it. Additionally, the OSCE, which oversees arms control in the region, would also need to grant its consent, which we have not seen happen," Lunic stressed.

He explains that any state entity can sell weapons to another entity. In the context of arms exports and military equipment, Croatia and Albania recognize Kosovo as an independent state.

"This document may or may not serve that purpose, as any intergovernmental bilateral agreement could suffice. What matters more is the context of the military industry. The EU and NATO have decided, something we saw at the recent NATO summit, to significantly increase arms and military equipment production. In this context, the synergy of these three defense industries could be of strategic interest to both the EU and NATO. Serbia must take this into account, and now is the right time to act, as the current complex geopolitical situation presents an opportunity to establish an allied relationship with the EU and NATO in terms of military industry. Serbia’s defense industry operates on a strategic level, rather than on an operational or tactical level, as Pristina aims to develop," Lunic said.

At the same time, he warns that the Balkans should prepare for a new security situation, as Kosovo Security Forces are being prepared for transformation into Kosovo’s Armed Forces, which is planned to be formally completed by 2028.

"And that will certainly not bring stability in the security context of our region if we continue with a virtual arms race, if we all keep purchasing weapons without any control, knowing that our societies and states in the region are neither capable nor financially equipped to sustain such an arms race," our interlocutor stated.

He adds that the region still grapples with unresolved historical tensions and a high level of distrust between neighboring countries.

"If we recall how enthusiastically Serbia received the news that, according to Global Firepower, it is the leading military power in the region, it becomes clear that other countries cannot fully trust a so-called militarily neutral country. Military neutrality has been declared in Serbia, yet paradoxically, we have never sought international recognition of that neutrality. This raises concerns about the security and stability of the region," Lunic stated.

Rutte and Vucic likely discussed Bosnia and Herzegovina, Belgrade-Pristina relations, and KFOR as an ally

Commenting on the recent meeting in Brussels between Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Lunic notes that, given the length of the meeting, over two and a half hours, it likely covered all tactical and operational aspects of regional peace and security.

"I am certain they discussed Bosnia and Herzegovina, possibly Montenegro too, but certainly Kosovo and the normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina. NATO, through its KFOR mission, is undoubtedly an ally of Serbia. Former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg explicitly opposed the transformation of Kosovo Security Forces into Kosovo’s Armed Forces. That has been emphasized. However, NATO cannot influence the individual bilateral decisions of its most powerful member states. In this context, and in the broader Serbia-NATO relationship, as well as regional stability, Serbia must consider the sustainability of its security system. It must ensure that neither Serbian national interests nor the Serbian population in Kosovo and also Bosnia and Herzegovina are jeopardized. The declared military neutrality is unsustainable, not just in a security or military sense, but also in a broader foreign policy context," Lunic concluded.