Nedeljkovic: Trump's victory favorable for Serbia, but I'm afraid of a quick solution to the Kosovo issue

Assistant Professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences in Belgrade, Stevan Nedeljkovic, assesses that with Joseph Biden's rise to power, the US maintained a somewhat mild approach toward Serbia, and in case Donald Trump wins the presidential election in November, he expects an even more favorable approach. However, when asked if Trump's victory could lead to a final solution regarding Kosovo, Nedeljkovic responds that this is one of the scenarios that he is afraid of.

"At this moment, people close to Donald Trump hold rather mild and positive views toward Serbia. Of course, I don't expect a radical shift in terms of the US derecognizing Kosovo, but it seems to me that Kosovo would not be as high on the agenda as other issues like the economy and improving bilateral relations between Serbia and the US. In a way, this would be good for Serbia concerning bilateral relations specifically. However, considering the broader picture, Trump brings a level of uncertainty as a president, and this uncertainty at a global order level could spill over to the Balkans and Serbia, which I am not sure would be quite good," Nedeljkovic tells Kosovo Online.

On the other hand, he also expresses concern if Trump desires a swift resolution to the Kosovo issue.

"A quick resolution of Kosovo's status under Trump scares me a bit. Why? Because Trump is quite decisive. During his first term, he was almost obsessed with winning the Nobel Peace Prize. Hence his mediation in the Middle East, the relationship between Belgrade and Pristina, and other places in the world, such as North Korea. If Trump had a fixed idea that the status needed to be quickly resolved, this could include a solution entirely unfavorable to Serbia, possibly involving direct recognition of Kosovo by Serbia," Nedeljkovic notes.

He adds that such quick solutions "do not make him happy" because even if favorable for Serbia at that moment, they could generate other problems.

"It could plant a seed of trouble for the future. Additionally, if Europeans are not satisfied with the US approach, I think there would be no agreement. Because Serbia's primary goal, its national interest, is EU membership, and I am not sure Serbia would go so far as to alienate all European countries, even at the expense of warming and improving relations with the US," Nedeljkovic says.

Biden administration's mild approach

Commenting on the Biden administration's relationship with Serbia, Nedeljkovic says, "We married much better than we hoped."

"When Biden won, a drastic shift and significantly more pressure from the US administration on Serbia was expected. We can indeed testify that this is not the case. The greatest pressures from 2021 to today came primarily from European countries, specifically Germany and the United Kingdom. The US maintained a somewhat mild approach toward Serbia," Nedeljkovic pointed out.

As an illustration of instances where there were even more positive shifts compared to Trump's administration, he cites the congratulatory message on Serbia's Independence Day.

"If we look at Trump's message, it encouraged mutual recognition between Serbia and Kosovo. There is no such message from Biden; mutual recognition is not mentioned. Instead, a diplomatic step-by-step approach is taken, avoiding directly poking Serbia in the eye," he emphasizes.

When asked how a possible Trump victory would affect the current, rather tangled geopolitical situation, Nedeljkovic says that in foreign policy, unlike domestic policy, Trump and Biden share a lot.

"Their approach to Israel would be quite similar, though Trump would be somewhat more radical in his support for Israel. In policy toward China, I also think they share the same views on what the US national interest is in East China. The only significant uncertainty and difference would be Trump's approach to Europe, which would be fundamentally different from Biden's current approach. We would reset to 2020, where Trump would significantly more passionately demand his European allies share the defense burden and also demand clear positions regarding Russia," Nedeljkovic says.

He adds that Ukraine would be the only country significantly harmed by Donald Trump coming to power.

"Support for Ukraine would be quite uncertain or, at the very least, conditioned on concessions that Ukraine and President Zelensky would have to make to both Trump and Russia," Nedeljkovic believes.

Most influential debate in US history

Commenting on the TV duel between Trump and Biden, Nedeljkovic says it was one of the most influential debates in US history, since 1960, when TV debates began.

"Biden was definitely defeated, although Trump did not have an outstanding performance either, considering the amount of misinformation he presented and some rather controversial views, along with avoiding answering questions. However, Joseph Biden's performance was indeed the worst in memory. If you compare his debates from 2020 to today, you will see that we are indeed not talking about the same person," our interlocutor says.

He adds that the debate sparked a broader discussion about whether Biden should remain in the race, which took place in a triangle involving Biden's family, the Democratic establishment, and campaign financiers.

"It seems to me at this moment that this triangle is somewhat closer to the decision that Biden remains in the race for several very important reasons. One is tradition and inertia. It would be highly undemocratic for the candidate who won a good number of delegates for the convention in mid-August in Chicago not to be the candidate. If you now decided it should be someone else, it wouldn't come from the democratic process but from the party establishment, which would be viewed very negatively," Nedeljkovic explains.

On the other hand, he says, when everything is put on paper, Biden, although it sounds strange, still has the best chance on November 5 in the US presidential election against Donald Trump.

"None of the candidates being mentioned, neither Michelle Obama, Gavin Newsom, nor Kamala Harris, has as much chance of defeating Trump. This might seem a bit surprising at the moment, but that is just how it is. Another factor is that no one has yet measured themselves as a candidate against Donald Trump. All this adds a huge dose of risk for which the Democratic Party, at least at this stage of the campaign, is not ready. It is not ready for Joseph Biden to step down from the race," Nedeljkovic concluded.