Panovic: Kosovo in the focus of the election campaign only in case of an agreement between Belgrade and Pristina

Demostat Program Director, Zoran Panovic, assessed for Kosovo Online that the elections announced by Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic for the spring of next year were expected and pointed out that Kosovo could be the focus of the campaign only if a concrete agreement was reached between Belgrade and Pristina.

Panovic assessed that it was a more rational decision for the ruling Serbian Progressive Party to hold the elections in the spring.

He states that March is a "symbolically a bit inconvenient month for the Serbs" and reminds that numerous tragedies have happened to the Serbs throughout history precisely in March, since 1941, and in recent history, it is the bombing of the FRY, the assassination of Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic and the March Pogrom in Kosovo in 2004.

"March has this heavy symbolism and there is always a risk that the elections held in that month will gain additional weight. When we work in the Demostat research, Kosovo does not appear at the top of the list of priorities, when people say what is most important to them. First, they say the standard of living, health... However, in some crisis situations, when there are incidents or some kind of terror against the Serbs in Kosovo, then the Kosovo issue suddenly comes to the fore, because it carries, quite logically, a great emotional significance for Serbs," Panovic believes.

According to him, the elections in Serbia were never primarily determined by the issue of Kosovo.

"The elections in Serbia were never primarily determined by Kosovo, and Kosovo was not the main topic, but the 'atmosphere of Kosovo' always permeates the elections, a little bit through the stories of who is a greater patriot, who is a traitor, but it has not directly been a primary topic until now" Panovic stated.

He points out that "Kosovo is an emotionally risky topic" in pre-election campaigns.

"Declaring decisively about Kosovo is always politically risky for both the government and the opposition, while it is also politically irresponsible to 'play around' with some masculinist and unrealistic goals," Panovic said.

He added that Kosovo could become the focus of citizens' interest in the campaign if, as he said, "some form of the final agreement was reached under the auspices of the EU and the USA" before the elections.

"If something like that happened before the elections in Serbia, Kosovo would be an important issue. If, for example, this trend continued until March - escalation, then calming down, then unsuccessful meetings between Vucic and Kurti, nothing would suddenly change," Panovic said.

If, as he says, a solution for Kosovo would be reached in the meantime, it would have certain consequences.

"The Government would say in the campaign that it got the most out of it, a part of the opposition would probably criticize it, and it would be difficult for the pro-European opposition not to support, for example, the agreement that Vucic reached under the auspices of the USA and the EU," Panovic says.

He points out that the main problem lies in the fact that Serbia often talks about unity, but there is no "basic social consensus".

"Kosovo should be an important topic for which we need to have a realistic, basic social consensus, at least two-thirds. There will always be extravagant opinions from various sides, from the fact that everything should be left immediately, that everything is lost, to the fact that the Serbian army should again return to Kosovo in full capacity. But the basic two-thirds consensus of the main political actors regarding the Serbian national interest on real forces and optimal solutions is sometimes lacking," Panovic said.

He concludes that concerning that issue there are "daily politically incorrect fights where parties and Serbian public opinion are being exhausted, and it shouldn't be like that".