Pavkovic: Dialogue on the technical level until summer; Sorensen’s success will depend on the support of EU members

Milos Pavkovic, a researcher at the Center for European Policy in Belgrade, tells Kosovo Online that following EU Special Representative Peter Sorensen’s visit to Belgrade and Pristina, he does not expect a new round of dialogue in the near future, given that both Serbia and Kosovo currently have technical governments. He assumes that in the coming months, the dialogue will continue at a technical level, while high-level political meetings will likely be postponed until summer.

"Of course, everything is subject to change, as we see how quickly things shift in both Belgrade and Pristina. But for now, it seems that Sorensen’s focus will be on establishing contacts and potentially continuing the dialogue at a technical level, while high-level political negotiations are left for a later stage," Pavkovic stated.

He interprets Sorensen’s initial visits to Belgrade and Pristina as fact-finding missions and an opportunity to familiarize himself with key figures in the dialogue and gather as much on-the-ground information as possible about the current state of negotiations, which will help him plan his next steps as the EU mediator.

Pavkovic believes the main issue Sorensen will be addressing is the Agreement on the Path to Normalization and its Ohrid Annex, which were reached two years ago but have yet to be fully implemented.

"For Pristina, the primary focus is on creating the Community of Serb Municipalities, meaning submitting the draft statute of the CSM to the Constitutional Court for review. Regarding Belgrade, a constructive approach will likely be expected in Kosovo’s representation in international organizations, but that step will only come after Pristina fulfills its obligations. Right now, the main focus seems to be on the CSM and the return of the Serbian community to Kosovo’s institutions. This is the most pressing issue, and without addressing it, we cannot even discuss other aspects of the dialogue. This is something Sorensen will have to work on with all parties involved," Pavkovic explained.

When asked whether it is possible to assess at this stage if Sorensen will have more influence than his predecessor Miroslav Lajcak in pushing both sides to engage in dialogue and implement agreements, Pavkovic noted that Sorensen’s role is somewhat strengthened because it is solely focused on the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, whereas Lajcak also handled broader issues related to the Western Balkans.

"The main criticism of Lajcak was that he lacked the capacity to enforce the implementation of agreements. Whether this will change under Sorensen is difficult to say at this point. His success and ability to enforce implementation will largely depend on the level of support he receives, primarily from the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, but perhaps even more importantly, from individual EU member states. If he secures strong backing from member states and they work in synergy with him, we can expect better results compared to Lajcak. However, if certain member states continue to act independently and pursue their own agendas, Sorensen’s job will become much harder, and his credibility will be undermined by those very states," Pavkovic concluded.