Pavkovic: With new elections, the opposition has the potential to improve results

Milos Pavkovic, an associate of the Center for European Policies in Belgrade, says that the February 9 elections showed that the Self-Determination Movement has entered a trend of declining voter support, which is why he does not expect the party to achieve better results if new elections are held. On the other hand, he believes the opposition has the potential to improve its results.

The inability to elect a president of the parliament, Pavkovic told Kosovo Online, is a strong indicator that there is no parliamentary majority – that is, Albin Kurti, as the leader of Self-Determination, has not succeeded in gathering the necessary majority either to form a government or to elect the speaker of the parliament. On the other hand, there is also no unity among the opposition parties that would allow them to gather the necessary majority to form a government.

"With developments like these, new elections are slowly becoming the most realistic scenario. I do not expect, however, that the Self-Determination Movement could achieve better results in such elections. At best, they might get the same results, possibly even worse. New elections do not work in Self-Determination's favor, and I believe their strategy will be to try to form a government at any cost. However, if new elections are held, there is a possibility that parliamentary and local elections could be linked, raising the question of Self-Determination’s ability to remain in power not only at the central level but also in many local self-governments," our interlocutor stated.

If new elections do occur, what could work in favor of the opposition, according to Pavkovic, is that a new campaign would provide an opportunity to further criticize Albin Kurti’s government – a way to gain new votes and potentially receive more substantial support, including a boost from the international community.

"Even now, the opposition potentially has the numbers to form a government, but with repeated elections, a slightly better result, more mandates, and international support, that government could be more stable than any currently formed, whether by Self-Determination or a united opposition. From this perspective, it seems the opposition's strategy is to push for new elections and seek better results to definitively unseat Albin Kurti and establish a new political structure in Pristina," Pavkovic said.