Prorokovic: Russia and China would set aside the option of territorial exchange; Bolton expressed personal opinion

Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for International Politics and Economics in Belgrade, Dusan Prorokovic, tells Kosovo Online that for Serbia, the option of a territorial exchange as a solution to the Kosovo issue is not acceptable and that there is no interest in such an outcome among the Albanians. Even if there were goodwill from all sides, he believes it would be difficult and complicated to implement.

For these reasons, Prorokovic says, Russia, and even China and some other non-Western actors, would set this option aside, as it could increase conflict potential in the Balkans.

"I don’t see it being in Russia's interest to escalate conflict potential and lead to new conflicts in the Balkans, or at least new crises. It is certainly not in China’s interest, as they have invested significantly here. Overall, this is a long shot and very difficult to implement," Prorokovic states.

According to him, European actors also show no inclination to accept territorial exchange.

"On the contrary, everything Kurti is doing in northern Kosovo is done after verbal agreement with the Franco-German plan. So, he is acting with the support of European partners, I would say more with British support than French, and partly with German backing. The situation on the ground is about integrating northern Kosovo into the so-called Kosovo institutional system. Why would Kurti then even negotiate on territorial exchange? And with elections in Kosovo next year, and Kurti likely securing another four-year mandate, this issue simply won’t make it to the agenda," Prorokovic says.

The topic of territorial exchange was brought up by John Bolton, former national security advisor under US President Donald Trump, who said that the US position for "some time" has been that Serbia and Kosovo could reach something acceptable to both sides, including territorial exchange. However, according to Prorokovic, this should be considered as Bolton’s personal view, rather than a strategic projection.

Bolton, Prorokovic says, is one of the American Republican politicians who views international relations from a realist perspective, but his influence was far greater in the past than it is today.

“He has had quite a few missteps in his strategic views in recent years, and that is ultimately why he was removed from the Trump administration. Additionally, his influence on US foreign and security policy is highly questionable,” Prorokovic adds.

The key question, however, as he points out, is whether the territorial exchange is acceptable to Serbia.

"This is primarily about our interests, our identity issues, geopolitical views, and assessments of how to proceed in the coming decades in a very unstable international environment. I don’t see this as acceptable to us. First, due to identity issues. We are witnessing everything that’s happening in Kosovo and Metohija, and in the case of partition, it would open up many very unpleasant, if not catastrophic, consequences for us. This includes the seizure of cultural heritage and the fate of the remaining Serbs in the part of Kosovo we would recognize. There is also Kosovo’s positioning in international relations, and we should expect lawsuits for genocide or war crimes. So, there are many reasons why this is unacceptable to us," Prorokovic argues.

He also points to the issue of guarantees that Serbia would receive in such a scenario and whether they would be respected. He adds that we are witnessing that the guarantees given to Russia, a great power and a permanent member of the UN Security Council, as defined by the Minsk agreements, were not respected in Ukraine. So, he says, if such guarantees aren’t respected for Russia, the question arises: why would they be respected for Serbia?

Prorokovic also doesn’t see any willingness among European states, the European Union, or the United Kingdom to engage in discussions on this topic.

“A partition plan was already proposed several years ago, albeit through French and German magazines. This plan involved not only the partition of Kosovo but also parts of central Serbia. Bujanovac and Presevo were mentioned, as well as a special status for Kosovska Mitrovica, and other issues related to concession rights, mutual recognition, and unrestricted participation in international relations. This wouldn’t unfold even if there were a formal proposal in the way we imagine in Belgrade. It would involve many indicators and factors, and I don’t see any way, even with goodwill from all sides, for it to be accomplished. It is a very, very complex and complicated process,” Prorokovic emphasizes.