Radicevic: Right-wing parties will gain majority in the EP, but without dramatic changes in European policy

RTS correspondent from Germany, Nenad Radicevic, assesses that a bloc of right-wing parties will gain a majority in the upcoming European Parliament elections, but that this will not lead to dramatic changes at the top of the EU, in relations with the Western Balkans, or the mediation in the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue.

"It is apparent that the hard-right bloc will strengthen, along with the moderate right, or the right closer to the center, having a majority in the European Parliament. However, this doesn't mean that there will be a dramatic change in power at the top of the European Union, but rather that some form of coalition between conservative parties, the Social Democratic Party, and the Liberals or Greens will be needed. In this quadrangle, a new government at the EU level will emerge. But the European Parliament as a kind of speaker for all these parties will be somewhat different. Voices that are not so popular with those in power will be heard more," Radicevic assesses.

He says that changes at the top of the EU, from a new High Representative for Foreign Policy to the announcement of establishing a Defense Commissioner, will also impact the Western Balkans and the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, but one shouldn't expect dramatic changes there since most Western European countries, which have a decisive influence, among other things, on the election of European officials, have a fairly united stance on Kosovo.

"In that sense, one should not expect a drastic turn. However, in the European Parliament, it will be possible to hear more voices questioning whether the idea of Kosovo's independence is correct and whether the EU is wrong on that issue. The debate in the European Parliament may sound good to our ears, in terms of reporting and work and discussions in the EP, but in practice, it will not lead to change," Radicevic claims.

He explains that regardless of who will lead the EU in the future, it will not question or change the essence of the negotiating process between Belgrade and Pristina.

"In practice, officials who will take over EU leadership will not question the essence of that process, which is something called the normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina, and in fact, when viewed in the context of European integration, it is an effort for Belgrade to normalize those relations so that it can enter the EU without Kosovo. Actually, that is the essence, not a return of Kosovo under Belgrade's jurisdiction," Radicevic emphasizes.

Speaking about the upcoming European Parliament elections, Radicevic says that it is already clear that the biggest losers will be center-left parties, social-democratic parties, Liberals, and Greens.

"They are seen on numerous issues at national levels as someone who has worked against some interest groups, such as farmers. We have seen a series of farmer protests across the EU, and the Greens or Liberals are actors who were opponents of the interests of farmers. In the end, the EU abandoned some controversial regulations. Specifically, Ursula von der Leyen herself, at the last minute, withdrew some legal procedures, including for farmers. Among other things, to benefit as a representative of that conservative stream in European elections," Radicevic says.

He adds that this is also visible regarding the war in Ukraine.

"Now we see that even regarding the war in Ukraine, the actions of certain officials are fundamentally aimed at regaining the trust of their voters before the European elections and making it difficult for opponents who have either pro-Russian or anti-war views," Radicevic emphasizes.

Asked whether upcoming national elections in EU member states could bring surprises, Radicevic says that one should not expect dramatic changes there either.

"In Germany, it is difficult for Alternative for Germany or the Left, which have different views compared to mainstream parties, to come to power at the federal level. Maybe at the state level, there is a chance, but at the federal level that decides on foreign policy, there is no chance. The same is a big question in France, even if theoretically Marine Le Pen became the new president, would she change policy? Did Giorgia Meloni change Italy's course? No, even though she was seen as someone who played against the system. In that sense, I don't believe that there could be a major turnaround, at least not in the near future," Radicevic concludes.