Rohac: In the event of US–Russia rapprochement, Moscow could demand greater sphere of influence in the Balkans

Senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and expert on Central and Eastern Europe, Dalibor Rohac, voiced concern that a rapprochement between Washington and Moscow could create a situation in which Russia would demand a sphere of influence in the Balkans, something that would lead to regional destabilization and a worsening of the situation in Kosovo.

Commenting on the recent meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Alaska and the possibility that the two countries could agree on a solution to end the war in Ukraine, Rohac said that the world is still “very far from anything resembling a solution for Ukraine,” and that, for now, everything remains in the realm of “hypothetical scenarios.”

Nevertheless, he expressed concern that “concessions to Russia” could move things further away not only from “a constructive solution for Ukraine” but also when it comes to the Western Balkans.

“I fear that some form of rapprochement between Washington and Moscow could create a situation in which Russia might demand a sphere of influence in the Balkans. One could expect Russia to assist Serbia in destabilizing various countries across the Western Balkans, and clearly in worsening the situation in Kosovo. Would that mean the US would step in to address the issue? I’m not entirely sure. Kosovo is a far less resonant public issue in the US than it is in Europe, and certainly less so than Ukraine,” Rohac told Kosovo Online.

He believes that in the event of a “redirection of spheres of influence” in the Western Balkans, Kosovo would be left as a “no man’s land.”

“As part of such a takeover of spheres of influence, it would be quite likely that Kosovo would be left as a ‘no man’s land,’ far removed from any Western influence. Whether the EU would withdraw under such circumstances, I think, remains an open question. I believe the EU will have plenty on its hands trying to support Ukraine so that it remains more or less intact in the coming years while facing Russian aggression and pressure from Washington,” Rohac said.