Savkovic: Every US administration will seek implementation of the dialogue agreement; Trump would probably be tougher

Every subsequent US administration will continue to insist on the implementation of the agreement from the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, and if it is Trump's administration, it would likely take a tougher stance. If Albin Kurti has any concerns about the possible return of Donald Trump to power, they are likely justified because Kurti did not have good relations with his previous administration, which also contributed to the fall of his first government, Marko Savkovic, a senior advisor at the ISAC fund, says to Kosovo Online.

He adds that it should be noted that Kurti's first government fell under Washington's pressure, but Kurti returned with a second government and had a stronger position.

Savkovic emphasizes that US foreign policy regarding our region will not change even if Republicans and Trump come to power, because it already changed to some extent in 2017.

"At that time, there was a kind of correction in their course, meaning they began to seek a more intense partnership with Serbia, primarily. If we look at how US foreign policy developed after Trump was replaced by Biden, we see that there weren't many significant changes. So, essentially, some basic theses in that foreign policy continue. For instance, the US will not suddenly withdraw support for Kosovo's independence and take a different stance in that regard. But what the US is trying to do is understand the positions of both sides. It strives to act as a mediator seeking a solution, sometimes even more intensely than some European partners. It is open to new initiatives, some of which it proposes itself, and some it supports, like the Open Balkan initiative, and is continuously trying to give momentum to the process under European leadership, which is not yielding results," Savkovic says to Kosovo Online.

Asked whether the policy towards the Belgrade-Pristina relations would continue from Trump's previous mandate if he were to become president again, specifically with economic normalization as a priority, Savkovic says it would be highly necessary now because there is currently no exchange since Serbian goods are blocked and the dinar has been abolished, which greatly affects the Serbian community living in Kosovo.

"We would first need normalization there. Probably every administration, including this hypothetical one, would first insist on that. But I would certainly expect even greater pressure on Pristina. We must not forget that Kosovo is under sanctions, restrictive measures from the European Union, and the criticism from America is quite strong. We recently had a visit from a high-ranking State Department official, which not only did not bring any results, but immediately after, there was an ordered raid on the Postal Savings Bank, closing branches, and so on. So, every subsequent administration will certainly continue to insist on the implementation of the agreement, and Trump's administration would likely act tougher," Savkovic assesses.

He also points out that there is much speculation about whether Richard Grenell will have a place in a new administration if Trump wins, and what that place would be.

"Grenell is present in this region, and I assume he has gotten to know it well. There are now other economic interests emerging. So, it's clear to me why this scenario would be desirable for Belgrade, and quite clear why Kurti's government would not see it as a good thing. Regarding staying in power, we must dispel the notion that America is omnipotent and can change the government in Kosovo at any moment. It is not that simple anymore. Kurti has significant support. He presents himself to citizens as a sovereigntist, strengthening Kosovo's statehood. And this is a policy with many supporters, not only among citizens in Kosovo but also in the very strong diaspora. Over half a million people in the diaspora vote. Everyone expects elections in Kosovo this year, and there will likely be attempts by opposition parties to unite, and certainly, they are also calculating who will be the next US president," Savkovic says.

Kurti recently stated that the "possible return of Donald Trump to the White House worries the leaders of European countries, but also Kosovo."