Vladisavljev: Possible new incidents due to stagnation in Dialogue

Program Coordinator of the BFPE Foundation for a Responsible Society, Stefan Vladisavljev, emphasized that the lack of progress in the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina has led to heightened tensions and that new incidents at the local level are possible. However, the US still perceives Serbia as a factor of stability and a party ready for agreement and cooperation.

Commenting on statements by Kosovo officials about a potential war with Serbia and the US stance that local tensions in the Western Balkans could escalate into serious political issues, Vladisavljev pointed out that Belgrade pursues a policy of peace and that escalation of conflict is not in the interest of either side.

"The lack of progress in the dialogue and the failure to implement what was agreed between Belgrade and Pristina has definitely led to increased tensions between the two sides, which is evident in the narratives being propagated. Belgrade pursues a policy that always emphasizes themes of peace and stability. This is part of the narrative most often propagated by Serbian officials," Vladisavljev said to Kosovo Online.

However, he notes that there have been certain situations in the past year and a half involving the Serbian side that have led to increased tensions.

Taking this into account, as well as the rhetoric from Pristina, he believes that conflict is not impossible, but that it cannot escalate into war.

"Now, if we start from the premise that we have fairly sharp narratives coming from Pristina, and a different kind of narrative coming from Belgrade, but there have been a few incidents involving the other side, we can definitely talk about the potential for conflict. How can this conflict evolve? I would not list war as one of the options. It does not seem that war will affect our region, although there are certain bilateral tensions. It seems to me that actors within the region are focused on internal issues, developmental issues, and issues that will improve the living conditions of citizens within Western Balkan states, primarily referring to Serbia. War would be of no benefit," explains Vladisavljev.

If Pristina's approach within the dialogue does not change, he emphasizes, current tensions could lead to an escalation of the situation that could result in some form of localized conflict in Kosovo.

"Conflict is something that, unfortunately, is cited as one of the potential options if there is no change in Pristina's approach, but also to some extent the implementation of what was agreed upon in the Ohrid Agreement, the implementation agreement, but ultimately the result of the entire dialogue process over the past ten or more years," Vladisavljev pointed out.

He reiterates that the official stance of Belgrade is to avoid any conflict and preserve human lives at all costs.

Unfortunately, he observes that narratives from Pristina are sometimes very sharp.

"There is a possibility that localized tensions could gain a new basis. We had an incident in 2023 that was the result of long-term processes and expressed dissatisfaction, primarily of Serbs in northern Kosovo, but also a reaction of the Kosovo Security Force delegated by Pristina. If we had a loss of life in the incident that occurred in Banjska, we can say that this potential exists because something happened, but the messages coming from Belgrade indicate that this is not anyone's goal, that the goal is not to escalate conflicts, lose lives. Unfortunately, narratives from Pristina in certain situations are quite sharp," said Vladisavljev.

Serbia is perceived by Pristina's institutions as a threat, although there is no continuous narrative to justify this.

Incidents are classified as incidents; a lot of time has passed since they occurred, and it seems that such events will not be repeated, at least not as represented and potentially expected by representatives in Pristina, he notes.

"Definitely moving away from this situation of tension and the position where it seems that neither side is satisfied with the position it is in is a prerequisite for such a possibility not to exist in the future. It seems to me that some percentage of the potential for localized conflicts that can reach a higher level, unfortunately, still exists," Vladisavljev believes.

He emphasizes that it is obvious that Serbia is currently viewed by the US as a key factor of stability.

The US knows, he adds, that the stability or potential instability in the Western Balkans will depend on Serbia's further actions and moves.

He concludes that Serbia has proven to be a reliable partner of the US and that relations between Belgrade and Washington are at their highest historical level.

"The cooperation between the US and Serbia has probably reached its highest level in recent years in any modern history we have between Belgrade and Washington. With the direction of foreign policy and the messages sent by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, it seems to me that there is a tendency for further development of partnership relations between Serbia and the US. Serbia has proven to be a reliable partner to Washington on numerous issues, such as dialogue and the de-escalation of situations where we have heightened tensions. I would say that if Serbia is potentially seen as a source of instability, Washington sees the solution in providing full support to Serbia to remain in its current position, which is that of a stabilizing force in the region, sending messages of cooperation with neighbors in the Western Balkans," concluded Vladisavljev.