Fidanovski: Taxes on singles are not the right solution, Poland is a good example of population policy

Demographer from Skopje Kristijan Fidanovski, who earned his PhD on Poland’s population policy, says the entire region is experiencing a negative natural population growth trend, which began in North Macedonia during the COVID-19 pandemic. Instead of introducing taxes on singles and unmarried individuals, he argues the Polish model of population policy should be applied.

"Throughout the region, natural population growth has been negative for quite some time," Fidanovski says.

He explains that North Macedonia had recorded a slight positive trend in natural population growth until 2019.

"The pandemic worsened the situation, and the negative trend has persisted ever since."

The key issue, he emphasizes, is not only low birth rates but also continuous emigration, which further reduces the population and accelerates aging.

In an attempt to reverse these trends, many countries in the region are implementing various pro-natalist policies, but according to this demographer, the results are often modest.

He highlights Poland as a good example of population policy.

"In Poland, for instance, we have a case of progressive policy which, although initiated by a conservative government, was later accepted and improved following a change in power. The main value of that policy wasn't a direct increase in birth rates but a significant reduction in child poverty," says Fidanovski.

The core of Poland’s population policy, he stresses, is the provision of "generous child benefits" to families regardless of their income.

By contrast, Hungary and Serbia pursue pro-natalist policies with a strong focus on third and fourth children.

"This can have regressive effects, as the greatest benefits go to wealthier families, especially through tax relief," Fidanovski notes.

He explains that Hungary’s population policy is centered on the tax system and has some regressive implications.

"Parents don’t pay taxes until their third child reaches adulthood. And if you have four children, you're exempt from paying income tax for the rest of your working life as a parent," Fidanovski explains.

In practice, parents in Hungary are exempt from 15 percent of total tax.

"This practically means much more money for wealthier families. So for those reasons, I personally don't like that approach at all. Serbia has a somewhat less regressive policy," the expert clarifies.

As a drawback of such policies, he points out the “neglect of reality” that most parents wish to have one or two children.

"Policies that focus on large families won’t significantly impact overall birth rates," Fidanovski believes.

Commenting on a recent statement by North Macedonia's Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski about the possible introduction of additional taxes for singles and unmarried individuals, Fidanovski says such a measure would be counterproductive.

"I was immediately against such an idea. Punitive policies don’t solve the problem. On the contrary, what’s needed is to improve the living conditions for parents, not punish those who aren’t," Fidanovski states.

He adds that it’s wrong to draw a direct connection between marriage and birth rates:

"In modern societies, children are often born outside of marriage, in stable, mature relationships. Marriage is an important institution, but it must not be a prerequisite for parenthood," this demographer clarifies.

He concludes by saying the demographic issue is serious but not unsolvable.

"What’s needed is a combination of social, economic, and healthcare policies that will help parents achieve the number of children they truly desire. There are no quick fixes, but through well-designed measures, we can slow the decline and mitigate its consequences," Fidanovski concludes.