Turmoil in Albania: How much does the conflict with Berisha, affairs, and opposition protests weaken Edi Rama's position?

Continuous attempts by the Albanian opposition to topple Prime Minister Edi Rama and his Socialist Party from power at any cost have gained intensity in recent months, deepening internal conflicts and increasing tensions on the political scene of Albania.

The Socialist Party headed by Edi Ram is already in power for the third mandate, which is an unprecedented case in Albania. Rama does not hide his intention to extend his power in the next parliamentary elections, which should be held in 2025.

On the other side is Sali Berisha, who still pretends to be the undisputed leader of all the Democrats even though he controls only part of the Democratic Party, after retiring from the post of president in 2013 and a long period in the opposition. Berisha is not giving up on returning to power despite numerous burdens, especially since he was declared persona non grata in the US, due to the corruption scandal that was extended to his family members.

Ilir Meta became even more involved in the conflict with the government after the five-year mandate as the head of state, in which his party, the Socialist Movement for Integration, was led by his wife Monika Kryemadhi, quite unsuccessfully and with numerous mistakes. He is now seeking to restore the influence of his party, which he has renamed the Freedom Party. He is aware that this is the last chance to hold on, but also to take a more important position on the unstable political scene of Albania, which is still sharply polarized, because the Socialist and Democratic parties are in charge.

In anticipation of the local elections

The stated reasons speak volumes about the increasingly frequent protests of the opposition, but also the circumstances in which the upcoming local elections will be held on May 14 and why they are so important for all political forces in Albania. In the opinion of the main actors, all means are allowed in this fight.

Therefore, the opposition presents new accusations practically every day and uses every opportunity to deal with the authorities, trying to make them as sensational as possible. In Albania, protests have already become folklore, and are often violent and always without the desired results. Often there are more journalists and police there than the demonstrators themselves.

Therefore, according to the opinion of the opposition, the case of the recently arrested FBI member Charles McGonigal and his alleged connection with the Prime Minister of Albania was an ideal occasion to further discredit Edi Rama, for the opposition to go on protests, create tensions inside and outside the parliament, but also to show that at this important moment, above all, Sali Berisha and his part of the party are on the "right side" and true friends of the US.

But, by all accounts, Prime Minister Rama does not pay attention to the opposition's protests and demands, nor to the McGonigal affair itself. He travels actively and receives foreign visits, and as he recently stated in a guest appearance on television, he would go to the parliament regarding McGonigal when he deemed it necessary, insisting that he had nothing to do with that affair.

Political analyst and director of the Institute for Political Studies in Tirana Afrim Krasniqi says that the upcoming local elections will be an important political test for both the government and the opposition in a statement for Kosovo online. According to him, two parts want to be confirmed, the government to have a majority, and the opposition to unite the internal factions.

The McGonigal Affair

"The opposition needs to attract voters who are dissatisfied with the government, so it is trying to start protests and radicalize the pre-election situation. Their main argument is the high level of corruption, numerous affairs, and the arrogance of the government, which does not respect the opposition and is rude to its every request or political proposal," Krasniqi says.

He believes that the current McGonigal affair significantly damages the reputation of the country, especially of Edi Rama, especially concerning international partners and the media.

"His image as an artist, a modern politician will be greatly damaged and will overshadow his ambitions for a more active role in foreign policy, but also the strong support of the West that he has had for years. If the opposition had a more modern and capable, but also more accepted leadership, this would be the case for a change of government, but Mr. Rama, although he is much weaker than in the last 10 years, will still remain in power," Afrim Krasniqi stated and added that he did not expect a change of government while the Socialist Party and Edi Rama had such a weak and personalized opposition, led by the former prime minister who was on the US sanctions list, Sali Berisha. The government of Albania was not threatened, because it had full power and control over the country and would confirm it in the local elections.

According to him, protests could be a temporary political tool, but not a long-term strategy.

"Anti-corruption investigations of high-ranking officials, especially some ministers and former ministers in the government, can have a much greater role in changing the situation than opposition protests. There is a wide perception that the third mandate of the current government and Prime Minister Rama is a waste of time and that in the next parliamentary elections - a political rotation will have to happen. Until then, the opposition must change and reform. The debate awaits us after the local elections in May 2023," Afrim Krasniqi concludes.

As long as the opposition in the country is divided, Edi Rama has a chance to stay in power, according to a local journalist and analyst Ben Andoni. In a statement for our portal, he confirms the opinion of his colleague Krasniqi that Rama's reputation on the international scene has been shaken, but also on the domestic political scene because now he is seen more and more as a political actor, who does not play fair and is completely different from the image that he created about himself.

Frame under pressure

"I believe that Rama is extremely damaged by these affairs, and it shows, because his role in the country, but also on the international stage, is fading. While before he did not miss the opportunity to speak and criticize the EU in almost all international forums, now he seems very withdrawn and careful. He is waiting for the progress of the McGonigal trial in the US and how his name will be mentioned in that trial," Andoni assesses.

"The situation in Albania does not affect Kosovo much, at least not more than an event in a neighboring country. In this respect, events are followed here, but people are not very knowledgeable. As for Edi Rama, the biggest scandal in post-communist Albania has surfaced in which Edi Rama bribed one of the major figures of the FBI, Charles McGonigal. And it is not only a scandal in Albania but a big scandal in America as well. It is about declaring Sali Berisha as persona non grata in America, and in which the US Secretary Antony Blinken is also involved, who declared him undesirable based on FBI data. After that, even though Sali Berisha was almost politically dead, he managed to take the party into his own hands, even though his close friend, whom he personally appointed as the president of the Democratic Party, distanced himself from him. This scandal helped Berisha to clear his name," Spahiu explains.

According to the estimates of local analysts, it is to be expected that in the coming period coming period, the disagreements between the government and the opposition will deepen. It is certain that until the day of the election, which this time will be an important indicator of the balance of power on the political scene, but of the possible directions of further development of the situation, the mutual raising of tensions will continue with an increase in the number of often unfounded mutual accusations.