Ankara's diplomatic offensive: Can Turkey skip the line into the EU?

The waiting room is already crowded and tense, with everyone wondering who's next. At a time when Brussels officials are declaring that the European Union is incomplete without the Western Balkans, a complete outsider on that path—Turkey—claims that the best move would be for it to be among the first to join the European family. The war in the East, internal turmoil spiced with disagreements with the new U.S. administration, and Turkey’s military leadership in southern Europe are, for Ankara, the key assets in favor of that demand being accepted. However, experts from Tirana, Pristina, and Belgrade interviewed by Kosovo Online believe it is unlikely to happen.

Written by: Djordje Barovic

"If the European Union wants to prevent or even reverse the loss of its power and influence, it can achieve that only through Turkey's full membership," Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said at a joint press conference after his bilateral meeting with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

This idea was immediately supported by Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama.

"Today, Europe needs Turkey and other Middle Eastern allies more than Ankara and those allies need today’s Europe," Rama stated.

Opening the fourth Antalya Forum, Erdoğan declared that Turkey advocates "dialogue and common sense, not polarization and conflict."

"We want to contribute to building peace and security by maintaining good relations with neighboring countries, creating opportunities for trade and exchange, and building bridges of dialogue," Erdoğan said.

Pragmatism and Alliances

One of those bridges could be membership in the European Union.

Editor-in-chief of the media platform Tema from Tirana, Jili Pata, told Kosovo Online that Europe is taking an increasingly pragmatic approach toward Turkey and sees the country as a strong future ally.

"There is a shift in the international approach toward Ankara, and Europe—especially Germany—is becoming more pragmatic in geopolitical terms, as they see Turkey as a strong ally in the future," Pata said.

Turkey’s membership in the EU is still seen as a distant prospect.

“We still don’t know when Turkey could actually join the European Union. It will take a lot of time, as there are many uncertainties. In the past, there were clear positions from Germany, France, and even the Netherlands against Turkey — especially during the times of concern and controversy surrounding Muslims and Islamic terrorism,” says Jili Pata.

He explains that one of the reasons is Turkey’s current internal crisis.

“I’m concerned about what’s happening in Turkey. Erdoğan made a very serious move by arresting the mayor of Istanbul, who is clearly someone capable of challenging him. Polls even show that he could defeat him,” Pata warns.

He considers the unequivocal support from Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama as natural, describing him as one of Erdoğan’s closest allies in the region.

“It’s true that Erdoğan has good relations with Bosnia, Serbia, North Macedonia, and also with Kosovo.

He has good relations with Croatia and Slovenia too, but his relationship with Edi Rama is politically strong. Albania is the only country where Erdoğan directly intervenes before elections, repeatedly supporting Edi Rama,” Pata explains.

He adds that Turkey has shifted its rhetoric toward the EU, and its key advantage lies in its military capacity, which could help in the war in Ukraine.

“This renewed stance from Turkey comes after many years. In the last elections, Erdoğan adopted a completely anti-Western posture, campaigning against the West, Washington, and Germany, and gaining support through this approach. Under current European circumstances, Turkey is being seen as an important ally for Europe regarding the war in Ukraine. There’s growing talk that Turkey could be a key part of future peacekeeping missions there,” Pata believes.

He sees this security factor as Turkey’s main asset in its bid for EU membership.

“We must keep in mind that German media and the future chancellor Friedrich Merz have clearly stated that Germany is rearming and strengthening its military. This should also be viewed as a strengthening of the political bloc in Europe, in which Turkey is an important part. We saw that even during the meetings in London, following the White House tensions between Trump and Zelensky, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan was urgently invited. Only a few countries were present — not all EU states. Turkey has begun its efforts to be part of this axis,” says Pata.

He believes Syria is a perfect example of this, as “Europe supported Erdoğan in taking control.”

“Just days ago, Erdoğan spoke harshly against Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who is having major issues with Europe and is an ally of Trump. We’re seeing many developments, and I think Turkey is worried about a potential new division of the world between China, Russia, and the U.S., which could harm its interests,” he adds.

Complex Interests

Marko Savkovic, senior advisor at the ISAC Fund, has no doubt that many global powers would seek an alliance with Turkey due to current events, which is why this country, with its “expansive interests,” feels it is the right moment to reopen the question of its EU membership.

“Turkey believes it is strong enough to raise this issue. In light of recent developments in the war in Ukraine, it has once again emerged as a key player — one whose alliance is sought by all sides in the conflict,” Savkovic told Kosovo Online.

Despite Turkey becoming a major interlocutor for Europe regarding the war in Ukraine, Savkovic says the EU membership request comes at an “unusual time.”

“It’s unusual because Turkey is simultaneously facing an internal political crisis triggered by the arrest of the mayor of Istanbul. It’s hard to see how this fits, especially given that some EU member states struggle to accept Turkey as it is — with its current system of governance,” he explains.

Commenting on Erdoğan’s statement that Turkey’s accession would strengthen EU military power and security, Savkovic calls it a contradictory claim made “from a position of relative strength.”

“I don’t believe Turkey’s membership — a prospect frozen for more than 20 years — is realistic,” he emphasizes.

From an economic standpoint, cooperation between Turkey and the EU is already advanced and would likely grow with membership. However, the main concern lies in security and defense.

“Membership would strengthen European security, assuming there’s mutual trust and shared values. It could help Western Europe manage the migration crisis. But on the other hand, it would raise questions such as Turkey’s role in Syria. Europe might be more secure, but also more exposed,” Savkovic notes.
He cites the need for Ankara to align a wide range of regulations and “European value systems” as the key obstacle to membership.

“Security and defense are just one dimension. Internal organization, democracy, and human rights are also evaluated — especially now. The key question is whether the candidate country shares EU values.

It sounds abstract, but it’s crucial: does Turkey share the values of countries currently aiding Ukraine and confronting Russia? Turkey does not. On top of that, it’s grappling with a serious internal crisis. We’ll have to see how that develops,” Savkovic concludes.

Regardless of whether Turkey becomes an EU member, he emphasizes that it will remain a regional power with “expansive interests.”

“Turkey will continue to play a significant role in this region, regardless of potential membership. It will maintain a specific relationship with the EU, influence certain outcomes, and continue to be consulted — so its position is already quite solid,” he says.

The Balkans and the Middle East

Political analyst Nexhmedin Spahiu also asserts that Turkey is a key player, particularly in the Western Balkans and the Middle East, making it indispensable to Europe.

“Relations between the U.S. and Europe are strained, as are those within NATO, which makes Turkey a crucial player in the Middle East, the Balkans, and in the balance between major powers. Europe still needs Turkey,” Spahiu told Kosovo Online.

He agrees with the initiative for Turkey’s EU membership — supported by Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama — and says Europe would benefit not only from a larger market, but also from greater security.

“Turkey would contribute a bigger market, as would other countries aspiring to join the EU. A unified market would bring prosperity to all. And Europe would gain enhanced security. A large, powerful country within the EU certainly adds potential. It would also strengthen ties with Asian countries with which Turkey already has good relations, as well as with Middle Eastern states. This would mean a comprehensive strengthening of Europe both economically and in terms of security,” Spahiu argues.

Geopolitical Calculations

Historian Igor Vukadinovic doesn’t rule out the possibility of “short-term alliances of necessity” between Ankara and Brussels, but says Turkey is still far from EU membership.

“Despite Erdoğan’s statements, full EU membership for Turkey doesn’t appear viable due to the many objective obstacles along the way. However, a temporary alliance of necessity could emerge, allowing both sides to achieve short-term goals — for the EU, a foreign policy objective; for the Turkish regime, internal consolidation,” Vukadinovic told Kosovo Online.

He believes the talk of Turkish EU membership is part of Erdoğan’s “geopolitical calculus.”

“While Erdoğan’s statements likely serve short-term political goals and aim to pacify the pro-European part of Turkish society, they also reflect geopolitical calculations prompted by tectonic global changes.

The Trump administration’s actions largely dismantled the concept of the EU as a mere periphery of the American empire obediently following orders from Washington. This has triggered an identity crisis and political turbulence among EU member states,” Vukadinovic explains.

He does not exclude the possibility of Ankara and Brussels drawing closer, citing not just Turkey’s internal issues but also problems within the EU.

“There is an obvious crisis among semi-authoritarian regimes, such as Erdoğan’s, facing increasing pressure from mass protests and civil disobedience. Today, no political actor in Europe or North America is fully at ease. So we can’t rule out the possibility of new political alignments that bring Ankara and Brussels closer,” the historian believes.

Turkey, as a regional power with significant human and economic potential, would undoubtedly strengthen the EU’s global standing, but would also fundamentally alter its identity and internal structure. As for the benefits for Turkey, it’s hard to tell whether joining the EU would bring more harm or good. Membership might strengthen Turkey’s role in the Caucasus and the Middle East. On the other hand, alignment with EU bureaucracy and regulations has often hindered the economic development of both member states and candidate countries.

Regarding interest in Turkey’s EU membership among Balkan political actors, Vukadinovic says it is highest among Albanian and Bosniak elites.

“As traditional allies of Turkey, and former protégés of Brussels and the U.S. deep state, Edi Rama and Bosniak politicians are now concerned about the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s foreign policy. However, there’s a notable distinction. While Rama is primarily focused on maintaining personal power in Albania through foreign backing, Bosniak political elites hope external support will help them dismantle Republic of Srpska and take over its territory. The announced arrest of the RS president is the most significant step in executing that operation,” Vukadinovic concludes.