Can Bedri Hamza stand up to Albin Kurti?

The opposition in Kosovo is calling on the ruling Self-Determination Movement every day to measure forces in early elections, accusing the current government of lacking a formula for Kosovo's development and of causing it harm. In preparation for this "confrontation," the Democratic Party of Kosovo has proposed its candidate for Prime Minister - Bedri Hamza, the mayor of South Mitrovica. Interlocutors of Kosovo online say there are qualities that recommend Hamza as the opposition's trump card, but it's uncertain whether he and the DPK can bring down Kurti.

Interestingly, the DPK did not nominate its party leader Memli Krasniqi for Prime Minister, but Krasniqi proposed Hamza, presenting him as a "proven figure" and as the DPK's response "to citizens' calls for a better and safer life." Hamza was the Governor of the Central Bank of Kosovo from 2013 to 2017, and the Minister of Finance from 2017 to 2019.

After his nomination, Hamza himself stated that he has a better team than Albin Kurti and a good program, and that he would be a better Prime Minister than the president of the Democratic League of Kosovo, Lumir Abdixhiku.

On the competitor from DPK, Self-Determination has already expressed the view that he is an "exploited figure" and part of previous governments that were deemed corrupt.

However, political analyst Shkelzen Maliqi believes that Hamza can be a competitor to Albin Kurti because he is, according to him, one of the three municipal presidents from the DPK who are very successful in their municipalities. While he was the Minister of Finance, he had no "stains."

"Hamza is respectable. The fact that he was nominated is a good move in terms of democratic procedures because the party president does not always have to be nominated. With Hamza, it's counted on that he will become attractive to other parties due to Kurti's 'anti-Americanism,' that is, spoiling relations with Kosovo's strategic partners," Maliqi told Kosovo online.

Maliqi points out that the fight for second place is between the Democratic League of Kosovo and the DPK, and it's not excluded that one of these parties could lead the future government.

"Whoever comes in second could also be first in some distribution. It is assumed that Self-Determination is losing support, and if, for instance, 100,000 DLK voters who last time voted for Kurti return to the pro-Western camp, then it's possible that one of these two opposition parties could come first and form the government," says Maliqi.

Regarding what Hamza's campaign might look like and whether it will engage with the Serbs, our interlocutor suggests that the DPK in its campaign should not go against the agreements signed by Kurti because those are not "Kurti's agreements."

"These are the agreements that Isa Mustafa and Hashim Thaci signed earlier. Those 40 agreements, more or less, were settled in 2016, while the remaining two or three contentious issues. So, they can't be against Kurti and against their predecessors who had better cooperation with Western partners. The Community of Serb Municipalities is the minimum or optimum that can 'activate' a new future for Kosovo, so on one hand, we have a de facto recognition of Kosovo by the Serbian authorities without formal recognition because the Constitution of Serbia prohibits it, and on the other hand, it frees the path for Kosovo to international organizations," Maliqi explains.

Marko Milenkovic from the NGO "New Social Initiative" says that Bedri Hamza is a trump card that part of the opposition is pulling from its sleeve, and his nomination, although somewhat surprising, is also sensible because clear political leaders have not emerged in the previous period.

"The decision for Krasnici not to be the candidate but Hamza instead I see as rational because Hamza has had management experience as part of significant institutions and has the experience that Krasnici lacks, which is important for a potential Prime Minister position if you want to gain the trust of the citizens and manage institutions. However, I am not sure how the electorate will react to this candidate," Milenkovic tells Kosovo online.

He reminds that Hamza, who is the current mayor of South Mitrovica, achieved a significant result in the municipal elections there, but it's uncertain whether he can be the key asset for overthrowing Self-Determination from power.

Regarding Hamza's relationship with the Serbian community, our interlocutor notes that he was not very visible in the positions he previously held, such as the Minister of Finance and the Governor of the Central Bank.

"What we know is that the party he comes from had a somewhat better relationship with the Serbian community than the relationship that Self-Determination and the current government in Pristina have. The stance towards the international community and the dialogue and normalization processes was much more constructive during the DPK's rule, and many important agreements were signed during that period, building trust with the Serbian community. The expectations of the international community, and perhaps the Serbian community as well, are somewhat more positive, but we still have to see how the political campaign develops," Milenkovic says.

Although he believes that Bedri Hamza, as the DPK's candidate for Prime Minister, can increase the party's rating by some percentage, university professor Nedzmedin Spahiu is convinced that the only competition for Albin Kurti could be a candidate from the Democratic League of Kosovo with strong support.

"Hamza's candidacy was more aimed at preventing the DPK from dispersing after its leaders went to The Hague, as there is a struggle for power. Behind his nomination, there is an intention to preserve the unity of the party," Spahiu tells Kosovo online.

He points out that Albin Kurti's Self-Determination did not come to power by taking votes from the DPK but from the DLK.

"For Albin Kurti to fall, the votes he took from the DLK need to return to the DLK because they won't go to the DPK since the DLK and DPK have a deep ideological rift, many post-war political murders, and it's hard for DLK membership to switch to the DPK and vice versa. Kurti received more than 50 percent of the votes when DLK voters switched to him, so if someone wants to topple Albin Kurti, they must invest in getting the DLK votes back to the DLK," Spahiu says.

When asked about the potential relationship Hamza could have with the Serbian community, Spahiu suggests it could be inferred from the relationship he had with North Mitrovica before the Serbian mayors in the north resigned.

"While the mayor of South Mitrovica was Agim Bahtiri, he had contacts with Rakic and others, he had some cooperation, however, Hamza during his mandate had no contacts," Spahiu says.