Dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina at an impasse: Can Brussels finish the job it has started?

The EU Special Representative for the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia, Miroslav Lajcak, visited Pristina after the recent failed talks in Brussels and announced a new round of negotiations between the chief negotiators. However, Kosovo Online interlocutors are skeptical that the dialogue will break the deadlock.

Brussels, as the main negotiator, is aware of the difficulties in the dialogue, but also of Pristina's strategy to force the Serbs in Kosovo into a fait accompli, Vladimir Vuletic, an associate professor at the Faculty of Philosophy in Belgrade and a sociologist, assesses for Kosovo Online.

"After the unilateral moves by Pristina, negotiations have become more difficult. All participants in the talks are aware of this. Just as everyone is aware negotiations are necessary. Or, Pristina may think they are not necessary if they succeed in what they undoubtedly intend, which is to put the Serbs living in Kosovo and Metohija in front of a fait accompli that implies 'either bow down or be removed.' Then, only technical issues remain for them. However, this is something that the European Union is aware of and could cause various problems. Everyone is aware that such solutions do not solve the problem but only bury the embers and the smoldering fire," Vuletic says.

Commenting on the stalemates in the negotiations, as well as the claim by the EU Special Representative for the Kosovo-Serbia Dialogue, Miroslav Lajcak, that "many political questions remain unanswered," Vuletic says that some of them are unilateral moves by Pristina, especially the abolition of the dinar.

He emphasizes that from Pristina's perspective, it seems logical that if Kosovo is effectively already independent, then they already have all the prerogatives of a state, and it's a technical matter of how to implement and use a single currency.

"Pristina sees those things that way. For Brussels, as a mediator and negotiator, it is clear that there are certain political issues because, on the other side, there is Belgrade, which sees all of this quite differently or oppositely. Therefore, political issues must be resolved to reach an agreement. For Pristina, it is now only a matter of a technical level. To be honest, for Belgrade, it is also only a matter on a technical level of how to solve some problems within the framework of what Serbia is, but Brussels sees it as an attempt to reach a political agreement on what the Ohrid Agreement implies," Vuletic points out.

He highlights that the key political issue on which Belgrade and Pristina need to agree is the final solution.

"That is actually the key political issue, and all others stem from it. But the difference between political and technical issues is that technical issues are something that needs to regulate decisions that have already been made, which everyone has agreed upon. However, it is clear that such decisions have not yet been made," Vuletic emphasizes.

Asked how official Belgrade could continue negotiations after a series of unilateral moves by Pristina, Vuletic says it is a "very tricky position" because he understands that only through economic development can they fight for Kosovo and for the rights of Serbs.

"Belgrade is in a very independent position. For specific reasons. Pristina, primarily Kurti, sees the whole thing as only, exclusively a question of Kosovo's independence. All other issues related to Kosovo's economic development, and its political position, which, they are aware, cannot be significantly worsened. All those issues are secondary to them. Belgrade, on the other hand, must take into account a multitude of other things related primarily to Serbia's economic development because it is clear that without an economically strong Serbia, you cannot fight for Kosovo or for the rights of Serbs in the region in general. That is equally important for Belgrade, if not more important, to achieve economic stability and progress because that is a prerequisite. We have no other sources for political struggle than what we create ourselves," Vuletic emphasizes.

He assesses that economic issues are not of fundamental importance for the Pristina authorities and Albin Kurti, while Belgrade is additionally faced with a geostrategic situation.

"On the other hand, Kosovo, namely Kurti, has a completely different kind of sources, so that economic issue is not essentially important to him, and that is his advantage. Belgrade has limitations because it must also take into account the geostrategic situation. The fact that Russia is not only in conflict but is an enemy of the EU, that China is an unwelcome guest here. Some of our natural allies who advocate for respecting UN principles and Resolution 1244 are effectively excluded from this process, and we are actually fighting alone, which is by no means easy," Vuletic specifies.

Pristina analyst and former Yugoslav politician Azem Vllasi also says for Kosovo Online that it is unclear to anyone how the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, mediated by the European Union, will proceed further.

"Currently, it is not clear to anyone how the dialogue will proceed. If the dispute is about the abolition of the dinar, then it should be removed from the agenda immediately because it is not a real issue but a fabricated problem. The Central Bank of Kosovo has taken the necessary steps to ensure that amounts in euros are deposited into the accounts of users from Serbia," Vllasi says.

When asked about the latest statement by the EU Special Representative for the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, Miroslav Lajcak, that "many political issues remain unanswered," Vllasi emphasizes that Lajcak should say that.

Vllasi assesses that Belgrade, or Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, is the party in the dialogue that, as he stated, "unnecessarily tightens" the situation regarding the dinar in Kosovo.

"Lajcak should say which questions remain unanswered. And he could clearly tell Vucic not to unnecessarily tighten the situation regarding the dinar because the euro does not endanger the Serbs in Kosovo unless the issue of the dinar hinders the path to the final normalization of relations," Vllasi emphasizes.

However, former diplomat Zoran Milivojevic assesses for Kosovo Online that negotiations are at a standstill due to Pristina's unilateral decisions and that the dialogue can only be unblocked if Washington and Brussels decide to do so.

"While there is no political will and no concrete actions, it is pointless to talk about any kind of dialogue," Milivojevic says.

He sees the key reason in Pristina's exclusivity, which, as he notes, does not give any signal or show any willingness to continue the dialogue.

"There are no negotiations because the Pristina side is exclusive. It does not give any signal or show any kind of willingness to continue the dialogue. Second, it implements measures that not only distance us from the dialogue but also close the possibility of any kind of dialogue. These are two elements that lead me to the conclusion that the negotiations have failed. And this is true now; we are still in the same situation. Now everything depends on the sponsors of the Pristina side, the centers of power in Washington and Brussels. They also do not show signs that there could be a breakthrough. There are no prospects for measures and actions to prevent what Kurti is doing, which is the expulsion of Serbia and the persecution of the Serbian people in Kosovo and Metohija. This is still ongoing," Milivojevic believes.

According to him, the crucial question that remains open is the full implementation of the agreements signed in Brussels in 2013 and 2015, and within that, the question of all questions – the formation of the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities.

However, Milivojevic believes that Albin Kurti, through unilateral moves, is trying to obstruct the formation of the CSM.

"The formation of the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities is the question of all questions. Now we see that if we had the CSM, we would not have had this escalation, and we would not have had the situation we have because these matters are practically under the jurisdiction of the CSM. My impression is that Kurti is obstructing the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities in this way, indicating that he has no intention of forming it. In such a situation, this question remains central for the next meeting of any kind. Not counting what is related to the dinar and seeking a solution for this people down there to start living normally," Milivojevic says.

He assesses that Pristina's unilateral moves are the main reason why the dialogue is at a standstill.

"They start from maximalist positions. Kurti firmly maintains that only recognition can be discussed. He insists on signing the Ohrid Agreement, which is unacceptable to Serbia, and in such circumstances, there are no negotiations. You know, negotiations always require two sides. As far as Serbia is concerned, it is open to dialogue, it will respond to every call for dialogue, but dialogue implies fulfilling previously undertaken obligations, putting the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities on the table, and, secondly, preventing measures and actions that jeopardize the survival of the Serbs in Kosovo and Metohija," Milivojevic concludes.

He assesses that the invitation to the main negotiators from Belgrade and Pristina is an attempt by the EU Special Representative for the Dialogue Miroslav Lajcak to save the EU's reputation but also to prevent a possible escalation of conflict in Kosovo.

"This is an attempt by the European Union, or Miroslav Lajcak, to somehow return to the dialogue as much as possible, considering the obstruction by Pristina and their behavior the last time he convened a meeting, and then their insistence on measures and actions that they implement regardless of the objections coming from Washington and Brussels and regardless of the mediator's attempts to continue the dialogue," Milivojevic says.

He emphasizes that the key reason for Lajcak and the EU is to bring the parties back to dialogue to prevent a possible new escalation of conflict.

"This is an attempt to somehow return to the dialogue and, what is even more important, an attempt by the mediator of the European Union to prevent a wider escalation that is looming, considering the measures and actions related to the dinar and what is happening to the Serbs on the ground," Milivojevic believes.

However, he is not sure how much such a meeting will contribute to the progress of the dialogue.

"The impression is that the Pristina side will not change its position, that Kurti is determined in implementing policies regarding the dinar and everything else. We see this through the latest arrests and through the constant repression. There are no reactions to what is happening to the Serbian people on the ground. They do not have the opportunity for a normal life, the functioning of institutions: health care, education, etc. I do not expect any change. Everything still depends on how Washington and Brussels will behave," Milivojevic states.

He adds that the upcoming elections for the European Parliament should not be overlooked.

Therefore, he says, Lajcak is trying to save the reputation of the main mediator in the negotiations, that is, the European Union.

"This should be kept in mind before the upcoming elections in the EU, saving the reputation of the main mediator, the European Union, given that all the last meetings have been unsuccessful, and they practically end their term unsuccessfully. That is the key thing," Milivojevic says.