Is the EU bluffing or has the West reached its limit?

EU spokesperson Peter Stano made it clear—if Pristina continues with unilateral measures, including the latest intention to open the main bridge on the Ibar River, it will face new EU sanctions. However, Albin Kurti was equally clear—the bridge will be opened. The question now is whether Kosovo should brace for new sanctions or if the EU is merely making empty threats.

By: Arsenije Vuckovic

"Not just the EU, but all international partners in Kosovo are telling the Pristina administration not to engage in these serious, counterproductive, negative, unilateral, uncoordinated actions. We hope they will finally hear this message and stop us from imposing measures in response if the situation does not change," stated EU spokesperson Peter Stano late last week.

Two days later, Pristina responded that increasing measures would only deepen the injustice toward Kosovo.

"Their addition would only deepen the injustice," was the message from Kurti's office.

Sanctions against Kosovo were imposed more than a year ago. According to economists, the consequences of these sanctions amount to at least several hundred million euros in losses.

"We haven't had the opportunity to take advantage of many projects offered by the European Commission and various organizations. The value of these projects goes up to 300 million euros," says Lulzim Rafuna, President of the Kosovo Chamber of Commerce.

However, the Kosovo Business Alliance notes that the value of the financial damage could reach up to 600 million euros.

"To the extent that the Government of Kosovo is willing to be our partner in overcoming these concerns, it will strengthen our partnership. To the extent that the government is unwilling to be our partner on this very sensitive issue, it will impact the quality of our partnership," stated U.S. Ambassador to Pristina Jeffrey Hovenier after a meeting with Prime Minister Kurti in February of this year.

The Quint member states and the EU sharply reacted to the abolition of the dinar and a series of raids on the institutions of the Provisional Authorities south of the Ibar. Western officials expressed concern, issued warnings, and called for the cessation of unilateral moves, yet nothing substantial happened.

So, is the EU once again threatening with "an empty gun," or has the West reached its limit?

"Signals in the Fog"

Helena Ivanov, a research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, suggests that there is no concrete plan on how the EU might sanction Pristina's behavior and that the threats of new measures are a signal to the Kosovo administration to change its policy of unilateral actions.

"I think that at this moment, there is still no concrete plan on how current measures could be further strengthened, increased, or even some new measures that could be introduced. At this moment, it is only a signal to Pristina that it needs to change its current approach, that it needs to return to the dialogue moderated by the European Union, which is trying to normalize relations between Belgrade and Pristina," says Ivanov.

Ivanov further notes that the Quint countries have been clear about the opening of the main bridge on the Ibar River, but they are also aware that Albin Kurti's government is calculating the potential impact of sanctions on its unilateral actions.

"The Quint countries were very clear that the opening of the Ibar is not something that should happen, and when it does should primarily depend on the dialogue and the normalization process between Belgrade and Pristina. But what is happening now is just part of the overall behavior of Kurti's government that we have seen for several months, if not years, where unilateral moves are simply being made. Pristina is likely hoping that any sanctions it may face either won't materialize or, if they do, won't be too severe—meaning that the government there, and the people living there, won't feel them too acutely. I think this is simply part of a now-established pattern of behavior from Kurti's government," Ivanov emphasizes.

She is convinced that for the EU, "all options" for punitive measures are on the table, ranging from economic sanctions to reconsidering visa liberalization.

"All options are on the table, and which one might eventually be implemented largely depends on what Kurti's government does and to what extent it listens to what the Quint says, and what official Brussels is saying. However, we can likely expect, based on everything the EU has done so far, that the first wave of sanctions will probably be economic, affecting Kosovo's economy and business sector, because, in the end, these have generally yielded some positive results—not only in the case of Belgrade and Pristina but in general—economic sanctions are usually the first course of action," Ivanov concludes.

Ivanov adds that only if economic sanctions fail to achieve the desired outcome, the EU might take a further step and consider suspending visa liberalization.

"But I believe that the European Union does not want to escalate the situation in any way and hopes that the mere threat of sanctions and the refusal to lift the current measures in place will be enough to persuade Kurti to return to the negotiating table, to stop making unilateral decisions, and to cease complicating the already challenging process of normalization between Belgrade and Pristina. This process is inherently difficult because it involves two sides with mutually exclusive political goals, and Kurti's unilateral decisions only make it harder for this process to function normally," Ivanov explains.

She also does not rule out the possibility that the EU might be waiting for elections in Kosovo to potentially get an "easier negotiator" than Albin Kurti. However, she warns that the real issue in the normalization process is not Kurti himself but the fact that the EU does not act as a strong actor capable of contributing to the real normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina.

"Realistically, more than ten years have passed since the Brussels Agreement was signed, and we still don't have the Community of Serb Municipalities. The provisions of the Brussels Agreement have still not been implemented. The European Union might be hoping for new elections, perhaps hoping for a change in leadership, someone with whom they might find it easier to negotiate than with Kurti, but this problem predates Kurti. The issue of normalization has been dragging on for too long, and the EU must seriously confront the fact that the parties are not fulfilling what they signed and committed to," Ivanov concludes.

Threats and Consequences

Agim Shahini, President of the Business Alliance, has no doubt that the opening of the main bridge on the Ibar, despite its political symbolism, could lead to catastrophic punitive measures for Kosovo.

"For me, the bridge is open, and for someone else, the bridge is closed. I believe this is political symbolism, but it can directly affect Kosovo through severe measures that could be catastrophic. This is a real threat, and that threat could result in a significant loss of support. The threat could even involve travel bans for certain individuals to the EU or the suspension of visa liberalization if we continue to take unilateral measures that are not in line with the EU," Shahini said in an interview with Kosovo Online.

Shahini reminds that Kosovo has been under EU sanctions for almost two years, but warns that this is the least of its problems.

"We have lost financial, political, and diplomatic support that cannot be measured in money. After the EU sanctions, Kosovo has not become a member of any international mechanism, nor has it received any new recognitions. In fact, we've seen a deficit of about 600 million euros in foreign investments from the European Union, from funds for schools, over these two years. And now, we're not talking about lifting the previous sanctions, but rather about the possibility of receiving additional punitive measures. This is why the Government of Kosovo is both obligated and responsible to be more cautious in every decision it makes. It is necessary not to make decisions unilaterally, but in coordination with the international community, which remains our main partner," Shahini emphasizes.

(Un)clear Positions

Juliana Armas, Coordinator of the Western Balkans Group at the Hungarian Institute for International Relations, believes that the EU currently does not have a clear stance on imposing new sanctions on Pristina.

"I would say that the sanctions introduced last year after the incident in northern Kosovo will remain in place, but the EU is uncertain at this moment and is being very cautious about it. Therefore, despite public statements and declarations, they will wait a bit longer and be careful about imposing new sanctions," Armas said in an interview with Kosovo Online.

Armas also reminds us that after the incident in Banjska, there was no agreement among the EU member states, the parties involved, or the EU institutions regarding sanctions.

She adds that the EU currently assesses the situation as "somewhat stable."

"Sanctions could lead to new tensions. At this moment, they consider the situation to be somewhat stable, and in a way, they are satisfied with it," concludes Armas.

EU's Leverage

Sociologist Vladimir Vuletic believes that we should not expect radical steps or actions from the EU towards Albin Kurti's administration and that the issue of visa liberalization is the Union's leverage in potentially conditioning Pristina.

"We can hardly expect any substantial, radical steps or changes in response to Kurti's behavior. Everyone is now in a state of anticipation, especially regarding the potential outcomes of the U.S. presidential elections. However, to be honest, I don't expect any significant changes even there. Only if Kurti were removed from the head of these institutions might we hope for a change, if nothing else, in the way the provisional institutions treat the Serbs and in the approach to dialogues. But until then, there is still a long way to go, and I don't believe anything will change, especially not the imposition of stricter sanctions on Kosovo," Vuletic said in an interview with Kosovo Online.

Vuletic explains that the international community is well aware that Albin Kurti, since the beginning of his mandate, has pursued a unilateral policy aimed solely at the mutual recognition of Belgrade and Pristina.

"We all know, and the international community knows, that from the moment he came to the head of the provisional institutions, Kurti, and this policy in general, has been pursuing a unilateral policy, one that assumes the sole goal is mutual recognition between Kosovo and Serbia, or rather, between Belgrade and Pristina. They are fully aware of this," Vuletic emphasizes.

He adds that Kurti has softened his "formal rhetoric" by agreeing to participate in talks, but he has compensated for this in other ways.

"He has taken unilateral actions, and in the end, these talks have turned into, or he has tried to turn them into, a sort of normalization of these unilateral moves. He continues on this path, depending on how much Belgrade agrees, and to that extent, the international community issues statements like that of Peter Stano," Vuletic explains.

Vuletic doubts that the introduction of additional economic sanctions against Kosovo would change Pristina's political course, but he believes that conditioning visa liberalization could be the EU's "ace" that might have an effect.

"As for economic sanctions, there is no doubt that this is something that concerns the Albanians the least. We've seen that they don't really care much about that. If they did, they wouldn't be taking actions that were aimed, of course, against Serbia, but also against the population in Kosovo. When it comes to visa liberalization, that is indeed something that the European Union has as a trump card now, especially ahead of these elections, and whether and to what extent it will use it remains to be seen. A serious threat in that direction would be enough, of course, but I'm not entirely convinced that the EU is prepared to fundamentally change what has been an established pattern of behavior so far," Vuletic concludes.

Vuletic suggests that a change in the West's stance toward Pristina might occur if a different administration were in power in the United States, as different mechanisms would be employed.

"The EU has mechanisms at its disposal, tools that could be used to discipline Kurti. Why is it not doing so? Part of the answer is something we will likely see unfold in the coming months," Vuletic concludes.