EU gradually lifts sanctions on Kosovo: Has the desired outcome been achieved?

Talks between representatives of Pristina and the European Union within the framework of the Stabilisation and Association Agreement are the first indication that Brussels has begun to gradually lift punitive measures against Kosovo. Analysts, however, note that these measures have not influenced Kosovo’s authorities to avoid unilateral actions in the north — a striking example being the start of construction of two new bridges over the Ibar River — nor have they prompted implementation of the dialogue agreements. At the same time, due to the arrest of Igor Popovic, Assistant Director of the Office for Kosovo and Metohija, Belgrade is calling for a tightening of EU sanctions against Pristina.

Written by: Dusica Radeka Djordjevic

The work of the bodies under the Stabilisation and Association Agreement was suspended in 2023 as part of the EU’s sanctions package against Pristina for failing to take steps towards de-escalation in the north. Brussels' outreach through talks with Kosovo representatives on July 11 in the Subcommittee on Trade, Industry, Customs, and Taxation does not necessarily mean the sanctions have had the intended effect.

On the contrary, sources told Kosovo Online that the EU’s measures were ineffective and that Brussels must find new ways to encourage Kosovo to act constructively.

As things stand, continuation of the dialogue will not be possible as long as Igor Popovic remains in custody in Kosovo, having been arrested on July 18 for a speech he gave in Velika Hoca after a memorial for Serbs killed 25 years ago.

“As long as members of our negotiating team are being arrested, no meetings are possible,” said Serbia’s Foreign Minister Marko Djuric today, adding that the EU sanctions regime imposed on Pristina should be strengthened and expanded.

According to Stefan Vladisavljev, Program Coordinator at the BFPE Foundation for a Responsible Society, the gradual lifting of EU sanctions on Kosovo is not a result of positive progress by Pristina in implementing the 2023 Brussels Agreement or its implementation annex, but rather should be seen as laying the groundwork for future talks.

“We’ve had fire-fighting of ongoing crises, so at this point, unfortunately, the situation is defined by the absence of crisis rather than any positive developments. It seems that the political situation throughout Kosovo, including the north, is currently defined by inactivity. If there’s any appearance of a constructive role, it’s due more to the absence of negative actions than the presence of positive ones,” Vladisavljev told Kosovo Online.

Some of Pristina’s recent steps, he said, can be called cosmetic, as the situation regarding implementation of agreements has not substantially improved.

He praised the fact that the new European Commission envoy, Peter Sorensen, is a frequent visitor to the region, but emphasized that essentially things remain stuck in 2023.

“There is a kind of fundamental disinterest by the EU in the dialogue process, as attention is focused on other areas. This results in stagnation. Political crises within both the Kosovo and Serbian societies are currently drawing attention away from this issue. I wouldn’t call the lifting of sanctions fundamentally relevant to the future of the dialogue process. First of all, we don’t even know who will lead the dialogue from Pristina, since they’ve been unable to form a parliament, let alone a government, for a long time,” Vladisavljev said.

To recall, the EU’s punitive measures against Kosovo included putting the 2024 IPA (Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance) programming “on hold,” suspending bilateral visits, and not inviting Kosovo to high-level events except those related to crisis resolution in the north through EU-supported dialogue.

Former EU Envoy for Kosovo Wolfgang Petritsch believes that the government in Pristina is clearly ignoring the sanctions imposed by the European Union, as they have proven ineffective.

“One must take into account that Kosovo’s low economic level makes sanctions much less impactful,” Petritsch told Kosovo Online.

He cited Russia as an example illustrating the ineffectiveness of sanctions.

“Serbia took a critical stance from the start towards EU sanctions on Moscow. That is a problem, but it now appears that sanctions themselves are not a solution,” said Petritsch.

He believes the EU has limited ability to pressure Albin Kurti.

“Exerting pressure on or working with Kurti is certainly more difficult than it was with Hashim Thaçi. A new approach is needed,” said the former Austrian diplomat.

Still, he expressed confidence that Peter Sorensen will find means and opportunities and will have the support of Brussels, and that his proposals will be taken seriously by both Pristina and Belgrade.

“I think it is now necessary to find a new beginning,” Petritsch added.

Political analyst Shkëlzen Maliqi from Pristina assessed that the EU’s 2023 sanctions significantly harmed Kosovo’s budget, and sees their easing as a signal to Kosovo’s President Vjosa Osmani — who, he said, is trying to adapt to EU demands — as well as to Albin Kurti, who occasionally rhetorically shows willingness and claims the U.S. or EU are serious partners for Kosovo.

“These weren’t harsh but were serious sanctions for Kosovo. They mostly targeted the government and caused significant damage to Kosovo’s budget and capital investments, as they affected all planned EU aid and were linked to the EU accession process,” Maliqi told Kosovo Online.

However, he pointed out that Kurti constantly introduces new symbolic measures, such as the plan to build two pontoon bridges over the Ibar River.

“These bridges won’t have any significant function except as a campaign gesture, portraying himself as the liberator of the north — where democracy and free movement should reign. Everyone agrees with those principles, but what’s really needed is serious and honest dialogue with the Serbian community across Kosovo — in the north and elsewhere — because relations have been bad for decades, since the 1980s and 1990s. A normal democratic order must be established everywhere, and if nothing else, everyone should be heard and some positive, mutually agreed measures applied, not just unilateral ones,” Maliqi concluded.

It’s worth noting that a unanimous agreement of all EU member states is required to completely lift sanctions on Kosovo.

As EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas explained during her visit to Pristina in May, “some within the EU expect Kosovo to respect the Ohrid Agreement and believe the actions of Pristina’s authorities in the north do not contribute to de-escalation.”