How likely is a second term for Vjosa Osmani?

She has taken off the gloves and is trying to clear the path to a second term. She claims that this is demanded of her by two thirds of Kosovo’s citizens. That very threshold—two thirds—is what Vjosa Osmani must secure in parliament in order to remain in the presidential office. Interlocutors of Kosovo Online assess that this will be difficult, primarily because the opposition will not easily forgive her for supporting Self-Determination during the campaign. They also note that, if she secures another five years in office, there will be no change in her approach toward the Serbs in Kosovo, as she has had no contact with them.

Written by: Dusica Radeka Djordjevic

For a long time, she delayed answering journalists’ questions about whether she wanted another term as president, and then presented data claiming that polls conducted by non-governmental organizations show that two thirds—or in some cases 81 percent—of citizens are calling on her to seek a second term.

In this case, however, it is not the citizens who decide directly, but the members of parliament. Without 80 votes in the Assembly, her ambition will remain unrealized. Even if the process reaches a third round of voting, in which a two-thirds majority is no longer required, the key still lies in the hands of 80 MPs who must ensure a quorum.

Analysts note that it is not easy for Osmani (43) to secure a second term.

Some believe that Self-Determination, which has the largest number of MPs and can be considered “indebted” to Osmani because of the date she selected for parliamentary elections, is now not particularly interested in her re-election.

She insists that she has correct institutional relations and excellent personal relations with the leader of the Self-Determination Movement, Albin Kurti.

Within at most a month and a half, when the deadline for electing a new president of Kosovo expires, Kurti too will have to show his hand and disclose whether this native of Mitrovica, who holds a PhD in international law from the University of Pittsburgh, will once again, as in 2021, be Self-Determination’s candidate.

A (Un)Successful President

Opinions in Kosovo differ on whether Osmani is the right choice to serve as president for another five years.

Analyst Nexhmedin Spahiu told Kosovo Online that she was not a successful president and that an arrogant president does Kosovo no honor, while Professor Mazlum Baraliu believes that Osmani deserves another term because she played an important role in promoting Kosovo on the international stage.

Judging by statements coming from opposition parties, Spahiu assessed that it will be very difficult for Osmani to be elected to a second term, and that it would not be easy even in a potential third round of voting, since, as he notes, 80 MPs must be present in the chamber and at least 61 must vote for her.

“We will see whether anyone changes their position by then,” Spahiu said. Speaking about her term, which is nearing its end, he reiterated that she was not a successful president.

“She was boastful and arrogant. Such a president does not bring honor to Kosovo. The president of Kosovo must be a man or a woman with more moderate views, capable of building international relations with countries that Kosovo needs,” Spahiu said.

On the other hand, Baraliu praised Osmani, saying that she represented Kosovo with dignity on the international stage and crediting her with the main responsibility for securing four new recognitions of Kosovo last year.

“Any other consensus candidate that the opposition might propose, with all due respect, cannot replace the role she can now play after five years of experience and a successful contribution to the affirmation of Kosovo. It would be in Kosovo’s best interest for her to receive another term,” Baraliu said.

Whether she is good for Kosovo or not, journalist Lazar Stevic from North Mitrovica says that Albin Kurti, together with minority and non-Serb parties, cannot secure her a second term. Additional support from a stronger party, such as the Democratic League of Kosovo or others, would be needed to elect her president.

“Vjosa Osmani has reason to believe that Self-Determination will once again nominate her for president of Kosovo because she cooperated closely with Albin Kurti. She has announced that she will submit her candidacy and now expects Albin Kurti to fulfill his part of the agreement and nominate her for a second term. However, we see that Kurti is already calculating, primarily because he knows that the opposition will certainly not support her. During the campaign, she supported Self-Determination and Albin Kurti, and that is something the opposition will not easily forgive. Therefore, it is still debatable whom Self-Determination will nominate for president of Kosovo,” Stevic told Kosovo Online.

As he adds, these are now more serious and far-reaching calculations, because Albin Kurti wants a stable government. He is aware of the level of public support he received in the parliamentary elections on December 28 and would not want to squander it by making a mistake in proposing a new president.

“If Osmani is not elected the first or second time, it is most likely that new elections will be called. Whether that would benefit Albin Kurti remains to be seen, since he invested all his efforts in holding the parliamentary elections on December 28, when members of the diaspora came to Kosovo in large numbers. He took advantage of that opportunity and won 57 seats. If new elections are held in April or May, I do not believe he could repeat such a result. He must carefully consider his next steps—whether to support Vjosa Osmani or perhaps propose someone else,” Stevic assessed.

Historian Stefan Radojkovic also points out that the key question at this moment is which opposition parties, if any, would support Osmani or another candidate nominated by Kurti’s government in order to secure the required two-thirds majority.

“Will any opposition party be constructive, or will the opposition overturn the entire process and force another round of elections? Then the question arises of whether that would be in their interest and whether they want to gamble with an electoral result that is generally worse for the opposition than the one in February last year,” Radojkovic told Kosovo Online.

He adds that pressure from the international community is certain, and that, judging by the interests of major powers, they will likely strive to see a president elected in March.

If an opposition party supports the election of a president, Radojkovic notes, it will expect that, at least as far as Self-Determination is concerned, it will no longer be targeted in the media and will enjoy preferential status as an unofficial coalition partner of Kurti’s third government.

No Help for the Serbs

As for what the Serbs can expect from Osmani if she is re-elected, Spahiu says there will be no change compared to her first term.

“Serbs, and others as well, know what she was like. One cannot expect her to be different in a second term from what she was in the first,” he stressed.

If she wins a second term, Stevic believes that her approach toward the Serbs in Kosovo will remain the status quo—meaning an absence of contact.

According to him, Osmani had no relationship with Serbs during her first term either, and her numerous interviews showed that she used every opportunity to accuse Serbia “of everything under the sun,” starting with events in the north.

“She called on the international community to punish Serbia, to impose sanctions on Serbia; Serbia was to blame for everything. As for the local Serbs in Kosovo, she had almost no contact with them. She did not speak with Serbs to see how they live, but instead used every opportunity to accuse them of everything. So if she enters a second term, she will still have no cooperation with Serbs, because that is how she has positioned herself. And Serbs do not want to have any contact with her either, because she has done nothing good, nor taken any step or extended a hand of reconciliation,” Stevic said. Serbs, Radojkovic believes, know that she will not be a president of all citizens and therefore should not expect any assistance from her.

“Serbs do not need to fear her directly, but she will not truly be the president of all citizens of Kosovo and Metohija. She likely will not do anything extra to make their lives harder, but she certainly will not help them either. There are others tasked with shaping such relations toward the Serbs,” Radojkovic concluded.