How will political crises in Germany and France impact the EU and the Western Balkans?

One administration has been successfully formed—the European one—but in the two most powerful EU countries, Germany and France, governments have collapsed. According to the interlocutors of Kosovo Online, these are largely expected turbulences. They emphasize that this political seesaw should not affect the Union's plans or its approach to the Western Balkans.

Written by: Arsenije Vuckovic

It hasn’t even been three full months, and the government of Michel Barnier has fallen by a vote of 331 to 574 in the French parliament.

Things went downhill following an attempt to adopt the budget under a special article of the French Constitution (49, Paragraph 3).

As a result, France is left without a prime minister, without a government, and without a budget.

The only remaining figure is President Emmanuel Macron, who insists he will remain in office until the end of his term.

He sees a solution in forming a new government and drafting a new budget at the beginning of next year.

In Germany, according to analysts, the situation was even more predictable—not in the past three months but over the past three years. That is how long the "traffic light coalition" lasted before it was brought down for a relatively similar reason—a new budget item rejected by the finance minister.

Public opinion polls indicate that the Christian Democrats (CDU) have the best chance of winning the next election. However, the Social Democrats (SPD) of Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the Greens aim to pass several laws before positioning themselves for the upcoming electoral race.

German media claim that Scholz’s government recently broke an inglorious record—it has become the most unpopular cabinet in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany.

At least Scholz has the support of his party.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has informed the leadership of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) that he does not wish to be a candidate for chancellor and that he supports Scholz.

The political crises in France and Germany coincide with the successful selection of the new European Commission. The complicated procedure, which includes hearings for all candidates, went off without the predicted hitches, and Ursula von der Leyen and her team officially took office on December 1.

Gears Grinding

Will the crises in the EU's two most powerful states trigger a political seesaw on the continent? If you ask Milan Igrutinovic, a research associate at the Institute for European Studies, the answer is no.

He describes the current situation as "a bit of grinding in the gears."

"It’s possible that the Brussels administration itself will gain a bit more strength relative to Berlin and Paris. Emmanuel Macron is indeed weakened by the fall of Barnier’s government, which lasted only two and a half months. However, elections in France won’t be held before next summer, so this is a kind of interregnum and an unknown factor," Igrutinovic told Kosovo Online.

He explained that the French government had just begun fiscal restructuring to save 60 million euros in the budget.

"The question is whether anything will come of this in the context of the new government," Igrutinovic opines.

On the other hand, he emphasizes, the crisis in Germany was caused by the Free Democrats in a situation where all three ruling parties had clear action directions from the start.

"In a way, elections were a logical solution. It is expected that the CDU will be the new leading party of the future coalition; that is the expectation," Igrutinovic notes.

When asked whether the crises in the two most significant EU states will affect their stance on the Western Balkans and the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, this researcher believes it will depend on future U.S. foreign policy but that all signs point to no progress or creative solutions in the near future.

"The dialogue with Mr. Lajcak has been the same for the past two years. Very rare bilateral meetings at the highest political level, while on a technical level, physical meetings between the two sides happen at every third session. Essentially, nothing is happening there, just as nothing significant is happening in terms of implementation. I don’t believe this will change in the coming period," Igrutinovic stresses.

He doubts there will be changes regarding the already agreed-upon documents, which, through the EU, aim to normalize relations between Belgrade and Pristina.

"When those texts enter official documents in such a large bureaucracy, they simply won’t be changed, nor is there political will on their part to change them. They will continue insisting on their implementation now, in a year, or in two years. No particularly creative solutions will be achieved," Igrutinovic emphasizes.

Potential changes might arise with the involvement of a new U.S. administration.

"Will they receive a specific impulse from Trump’s administration? Perhaps. Will they then be ready to change anything significantly? That remains to be seen. But I believe they will stick to what has been established, which was once the Franco-German plan. It is now the European Plan. It has been adopted at the EU level, passed through all committees, even in countries that haven’t recognized Kosovo. So, it is now simply the European Plan, and they will adhere to it because their administration tends to stick to plans even when they are not fulfilled and do not align well with on-the-ground realities," Igrutinovic concludes.

He emphasizes that the crises in Europe’s two most powerful states may lead to some turbulence within the EU.

"There is this appearance of stability. It’s possible that we’re entering a slightly more turbulent period, but not excessively so, because Ursula von der Leyen has experience and comes from Germany. In some way, she will try to assert the authority of the European Commission against these two member states, at least for a period until things stabilize," Igrutinovic believes.

He points out that the EU’s attention is currently focused on the upcoming negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, expected to begin with the arrival of a new U.S. administration.

"It seems to me that they don’t have much time to deal internally with what France and Germany will do. French and German policies are generally aligned with the main flow of European policies. They are not the ones stepping out significantly or raising particular issues that would make the absence of functional governments in Berlin and Paris necessarily have a negative impact on functioning. So, I expect that with some minor issues, a bit of grinding in their gears, things will simply continue along the path that has essentially been expected since the European Parliament elections," the interlocutor concludes.

Electoral Fears

Igor Novakovic, a senior associate at the Center for International and Security Affairs (ISAC Fund), believes that the upcoming elections in Germany and France should not bring major surprises, including regarding their stance on the Western Balkans, but notes that the greatest fear in these countries is the rise of the far-right.

"The key question is whether, in one of these two countries, the far-right might gain more votes and thus gain an opportunity to form or influence government policy. Currently, the European administration reflects the largest political families within the European Parliament, and this will likely form the backbone of the new governments in France and Germany. So, I don’t think there will be any changes there," Novakovic told Kosovo Online.

According to this researcher, the crucial question for global dynamics and the rest of the world is what the policies of the new U.S. administration will look like.

"There is a lot of speculation, but the practical applications and consequences are still unknown. This will, in turn, influence the policies of major European states toward the Western Balkans," Novakovic concludes.

Bad and Good News

Strahinja Subotic, Program Manager at the European Policy Center, believes that the political crises in France and Germany are bad news for Serbia because the lack of leadership in these two centers will reflect on the Western Balkans.

"For Serbia, it’s certainly bad news that this duo—Germany and France—is not functioning at the moment. They are facing a pronounced political crisis. Once again, the government has fallen in France, and it’s unclear how it will recover. In Germany, we see a breakdown of cooperation between coalition partners. When leadership from both France and Germany is missing, that vacuum is usually filled by someone else. At this moment, Trump is arriving, who has ambitions and criticisms of the EU, and he will want to impose his rules of the game. Consequently, this will reflect on the Western Balkans, including Serbia," Subotic told Kosovo Online.

According to him, the good news is that the European Parliament and European Commission have been formed, and despite the challenges they face in Ukraine, Syria, and the Middle East, they will attempt to send a message to the region that they aim to maintain both political and economic primacy.

"Given that a new Growth Plan is now in the works, along with reforms that should unlock additional funds for Western Balkan states—and consequently for Serbia, as the largest portion of these funds will go to Serbia as the largest country in the Western Balkans—they will try to reaffirm their influence. Despite the unstable political situation in France and Germany, Ursula von der Leyen and her commission will attempt to send a message that we can still count on the institutions of the European Union during crises or times when leadership in individual member states is lacking," Subotic explains.

When asked whether the crisis in the two most powerful European countries will affect the new European administration, this researcher says the impact will be minimal.

"Member states won’t have much opportunity to interfere. All commissioners chosen by Ursula von der Leyen have passed through the European Parliament, and now she has a clear path to act over the next five years in a way that achieves her ambitions and strategic goals, which she has defined in collaboration with other EU institutions," Subotic emphasizes.

He adds that this dynamic will remain even in the hypothetical case that right-wing parties come to power in France or Germany.

"Let’s assume that in France, six months from now, right-wing parties come to power. They cannot change Macron’s choice of commissioner. The same applies to changes in power dynamics in Germany. Ursula von der Leyen, who is from Germany, remains the President of the European Commission regardless of who takes office. The ability of member states to influence the administrative work or the composition of EU institutions is very limited and nearly nonexistent. Therefore, I do not expect that changes in power in these states will decisively affect the direction the European Commission has set for the next five years," Subotic emphasizes.

However, the rise of the far-right could, in the long term, impact the political climate within the EU.

"In the long term, if Europe continues to shift further to the right, they could influence the implementation of policies envisioned by the Commission through the Council, considering that many policies, including enlargement policy, still require unanimity. That means all 27 member states must agree when deciding to open new clusters, or whether to impose sanctions on Russia or other countries. In this regard, member states—whether Germany or France—retain the right to have a significant say in the coming period," Subotic concludes.