Subotic: The political crisis in the leading EU countries is not good news for Serbia

Strahinja Subotic, program manager at the European Policy Centre, assessed that the political crisis in France and Germany is not good news for Serbia because the lack of leadership in these two central countries will also affect the Western Balkans.

"For Serbia, it is certainly not good news that this duo, Germany and France, is not functioning at this moment. I think they are facing a pronounced political crisis. Once again, the government in France has fallen, and the question is how it will recover moving forward. We know that in Germany, cooperation between coalition partners has broken down. It is well-known that when leadership is lacking in France and Germany, a vacuum usually arises that someone else attempts to fill. At this moment, Trump is stepping in, who has ambitions, criticizes the EU on various issues, and will want to impose his own rules of the game. Consequently, this will also reflect on the Western Balkans and Serbia," Subotic told Kosovo Online.

According to him, the good news is that the European Parliament and the European Commission have been formed, and despite challenges in Ukraine, Syria, and the Middle East, they will attempt to send a message to the region that they want to maintain both political and economic primacy.

"Considering that a new Growth Plan is now in the works, along with reforms aimed at unlocking additional funds for Western Balkan countries, and thereby for Serbia, as the largest state in the region, they will try to reaffirm this influence. Regardless of the political instability in France and Germany, Ursula von der Leyen and her Commission will attempt to signal that we can still rely on EU institutions during crises and periods when leadership from individual member states is lacking," Subotic stated.

When asked whether the crisis in the two most powerful European states will spill over into the new European administration, the researcher said this influence will be minimal.

"Member states will not be able to interfere much. All commissioners selected by Ursula von der Leyen have been approved by the European Parliament, and now she has a clear path ahead to act over the next five years to achieve her ambitions and strategic goals, as defined alongside other EU institutions," Subotic emphasized.

He added that this scenario would remain unchanged even in a hypothetical situation where far-right parties take power in France or Germany.

"Let’s assume that the far-right comes to power in France in six months, they cannot change Macron's choice for commissioner. The same applies to a shift in the balance of power in Germany. Ursula von der Leyen is from Germany, and she is the President of the European Commission. Regardless of who comes to power, she will remain in her position. Thus, member states' ability to influence the administrative work of EU institutions or the composition of these bodies is very limited, almost nonexistent. Therefore, I do not expect changes in power in these countries to have a decisive impact on the course the European Commission has set for the next five years," Subotic stressed.

However, the strengthening of the far-right could, in the long term, influence a shift in the political climate within the EU.

"In the long run, if Europe continues to veer further to the right, they could influence the implementation of policies envisioned by the Commission through the Council, especially considering that unanimity is still required for many policies, including enlargement policy. For example, all 27 member states must agree on opening new Clusters. Each member state has a say on whether to impose sanctions against Russia or other countries. In this sense, member states, whether Germany or France, will retain significant influence in the decision-making process for the foreseeable future," Subotic concluded.