Kosovo without NATO consensus—But is there a “backdoor” path to membership?

Foreign policy expert Nile Gardiner recently expressed optimism in the U.S. Congress about Kosovo’s prospects for NATO membership—a claim Pristina officials have made for years. However, interlocutors of Kosovo Online are adamant that without full consensus among member states, such accession is currently impossible. Still, some do not rule out the possibility that ongoing geopolitical upheavals could open a “backdoor” to membership.

Written by: Djordje Barovic

At the recent congressional debate in Washington titled “Assessing the Challenges Facing NATO”, U.S. Congressman Keith Self, Chair of the Subcommittee on Europe of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, addressed the issue of Kosovo’s NATO accession and emphasized:

“Kosovo wants to join NATO. Yet, we have four member states that do not recognize Kosovo, even though they participated in its defense in 1999.”

Despite that, foreign policy expert Nile Gardiner expressed growing optimism:

“Great strides have been made. I think we’ve seen a lot of positive developments. We’ll have to see how things unfold over the coming months and the next two years. But I must say there’s growing optimism about Kosovo joining NATO,” Gardiner stated.

Albania’s Deputy Minister of Defense, Blerina Abraxhda, also argued that Kosovo must join NATO unconditionally, stressing that Albania will always support its Euro-Atlantic aspirations:

“Kosovo must definitely join NATO. It has a complete armed force, sovereignty, a constitution—everything a state needs to qualify. Of course, the mechanisms and political hurdles are significant due to geopolitical complexities,” she explained.

Kosovo is not recognized by four NATO members: Spain, Romania, Greece, and Slovakia. According to Article 10 of the North Atlantic Treaty, this is enough to block its admission:

“The Parties may, by unanimous agreement, invite any other European State… to accede to this Treaty.”

This makes clear that new members can only be admitted with unanimous consent.

Criteria and Precedents

Geopolitical and security consultant Nikola Lunic told Kosovo Online that Kosovo’s NATO membership would set a precedent—but he doesn't exclude the possibility, given today’s global instability.

“At present, a country must meet several conditions to join NATO: political, military, and security criteria; legal and technical alignment; and most importantly—unanimous agreement of all NATO members. The only thing Pristina currently has is public support within its own society,” Lunic said.

He added that Kosovo fails one of the core criteria—it is not a UN member state.

“If a state that is not recognized by the UN were admitted to NATO, it would set a precedent NATO is unlikely to accept. But given the global geopolitical climate and widespread hysteria, such a scenario cannot be completely ruled out,” he warned.

On the other hand, Lunic acknowledged that Kosovo enjoys the strong backing of NATO’s most powerful members—the U.S., UK, and others:

“They support Kosovo not only in meeting criteria to establish its armed forces by 2028, but also in becoming a full NATO partner and eventually a member,” he said.

But, he emphasized, that scenario is currently unfeasible.

“We mustn’t bury our heads in the sand. It may become possible within a foreseeable time frame,” Lunic cautioned.

Asked how Kosovo might take a “shortcut” into NATO, Lunic pointed to recent EU practices, where key decisions are no longer made by consensus, but by qualified majority voting. A similar model, he suggested, could be applied in NATO:

“In today’s global crisis, international organizations avoid requiring consensus to make decisions. We’ve seen this in the EU, and there’s little doubt NATO will eventually follow suit. This way, member states that do not recognize Kosovo could be bypassed in blocking full membership. With the influence of powerful countries like Washington, Ankara, London, and eventually Paris and Berlin, I have no doubt it could be achieved,” Lunic concluded.

The solution for Serbia is to focus on its own interests and how to achieve them.

“It's not in our interest to stand on the sidelines lamenting their incompetence or to play the victim by saying this isn't international justice. We have to take action,” says geopolitical consultant Nikola Lunic, underscoring that Serbia must proactively pursue its national goals instead of merely reacting.

Indirect Models for NATO Integration

Political analyst Mazllum Baraliu from Pristina also believes that, despite the required consensus among NATO member states, Kosovo could, given shifting geopolitical realities, become part of NATO through an indirect model.

“Direct membership isn’t possible due to the obstacle of the four NATO states that don’t recognize Kosovo, and also because the EU itself does not recognize Kosovo as such—five of its member states do not recognize it. However, through indirect means, Kosovo could enhance its status and improve its ability to defend its territory in the event of potential risks,” Baraliu told Kosovo Online.

He argues that the prerequisites for such an indirect model are already in place.

“It’s clear that when there’s goodwill and urgent need imposed by geopolitical circumstances, a workaround model can be found to advance relations. Through the Partnership for Peace, Kosovo can be brought closer to NATO because, in reality, NATO is already present in Kosovo,” Baraliu explained.

He adds that Kosovo has “proven itself as a factor of peace and stability in the Balkans,” and that its Kosovo Security Forces (KSF) are strategically structured solely for defense, with no offensive intentions.

Baraliu cites Kosovo’s membership in the NATO Parliamentary Assembly as a key argument.

“Kosovo is already part of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly and can also conclude special bilateral agreements with NATO members—as it has already done with Albania and Croatia. These agreements are defensive in nature and pose no threat to anyone. Therefore, further indirect progress is possible, especially since 2028 marks the end of a ten-year period after which the KSF will meet all criteria to be considered a NATO-standard army,” Baraliu said.

“Simple Math”: No Consensus, No Membership

However, Igor Novakovic, Senior Fellow at the Center for International and Security Affairs, argues that regardless of statements from Pristina officials or Western analysts, there is no chance of Kosovo joining NATO without the support of all member states.

“This is very simple. I believe there is absolutely no chance,” Novakovic told Kosovo Online.

He added that Kosovo’s entry into the NATO Parliamentary Assembly does not increase its chances.

“That body is of an informal nature, not directly tied to NATO. It does not reflect the will of NATO governments, but is made up of parliamentarians, and decisions are made by a simple majority,” Novakovic explained.

He stressed that NATO’s admission rules are clear—unanimity is required for new members.

“As long as all NATO member states don’t agree, there is no path for Pristina to join the North Atlantic Alliance,” he emphasized.

Novakovic also reminded that Kosovo is not even a member of the Partnership for Peace program, often seen as a gateway to NATO.

“Kosovo is not part of this program either, so all this talk is speculative—coming from optimistic experts. But the reality is: unless all member states agree, nothing will come of it,” Novakovic concluded.