NATO Summit in Ankara: European allies under pressure, Western Balkans takes a back seat

This year’s NATO Summit will take place in Ankara on Tuesday and Wednesday, with discussions expected to focus on defence spending and strengthening the defence capabilities of the Alliance’s European members, analysts told Kosovo Online. They expect Allied leaders to reaffirm their support for Ukraine, while the Western Balkans will also be discussed, although the region is not expected to rank among the summit’s top priorities.

Written by: Jelena Novakov

At the insistence of U.S. President Donald Trump, NATO members last year agreed to increase defence spending to five percent of GDP over the next decade, even though seven member states had not yet met the Alliance’s previous target of allocating two percent of GDP to defence.

Those countries, including Spain, Belgium, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Portugal, Italy and Croatia, reached the two-percent benchmark by the end of 2025, but they still remain among the European allies with the lowest defence expenditures. Albania currently spends 2.3 percent of GDP on defence, which, according to Reuters, has raised questions about whether the next NATO Summit will be held there.

By contrast, NATO’s eastern flank allocates the largest share of GDP to defence, including Poland (4.7 percent), Estonia (3.4 percent), Latvia (3.4 percent) and Lithuania (3.3 percent), while the United States ranks behind Poland with defence spending also amounting to 3.4 percent of GDP.

According to Kosovo Online’s interlocutors, Ukraine will once again be one of the summit’s central topics.

As for the Western Balkans, Kosovo has not been invited to this year’s summit. Officials in Pristina justified the absence of an invitation by pointing out that Kosovo is not a NATO member, despite the fact that former President Vjosa Osmani attended the closing event of the 2024 summit. Some Kosovo analysts and opposition representatives have argued that cooperation with NATO should remain one of Kosovo’s key foreign policy objectives and that Kosovo has effectively been “punished” by not receiving an invitation this time.

Military analyst Vlade Radulovic told Kosovo Online that defence spending by European NATO members, the expansion of military production capacities and continued support for Ukraine would be among the key issues discussed by NATO leaders in Ankara.

“The question is no longer whether we can agree on the funding—we will find the money because we have committed ourselves to it. The real question is how quickly we can translate those resources into operational military capabilities. In one sentence, the issue is: how quickly and efficiently can Europe compensate for any potential shortfalls if we consider a reduced American military engagement in Europe,” Radulovic said.

According to him, the United States will insist on reaching a clear agreement, particularly in light of developments in the Middle East and what Washington views as insufficient European assistance during the war in Iran.

Radulovic stressed that the summit was preceded by the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the White House, where the main topics to be discussed in Ankara were outlined.

“As far as Ukraine is concerned, I do not expect anything groundbreaking. The summit will simply reaffirm continued and sustained support for Ukraine in terms of its defence effort during the war,” he said.

Despite tensions between Europe and the current U.S. administration, Radulovic noted that Europe increasingly understands it will no longer be able to rely on the United States for its defence to the same extent as it has over previous decades.

“European countries must invest in their own capabilities and think seriously about strengthening their own armed forces,” he said, adding that the “new reality” in Washington has prompted Europe to focus more heavily on its own defence.

Radulovic said that the United States will not leave NATO but is reassessing its relationship with Europe and increasing pressure on its European allies.

“Two questions are hanging in the air: whether the sporadic announcements regarding a possible withdrawal of U.S. troops from Europe and the closure of military bases will materialize, and whether, in the future, the United States will continue to view Europe in the same way it has for decades,” the analyst said.

According to him, the Western Balkans will be addressed in a broader context, although the primary focus will remain on Ukraine and the Middle East.

“We should not forget that there are still two major flashpoints in Europe. Apart from Ukraine, the continent has two particularly sensitive areas, and both are in the Balkans. One is Kosovo and Metohija, and the other is Bosnia and Herzegovina,” he explained.

Speaking about the Balkans, Radulovic said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan would use the opportunity of hosting the summit to demonstrate that, in conventional military terms, the Turkish Armed Forces are NATO’s strongest military force after those of the United States.

“Turkey sees itself as a Balkan country, so it is unrealistic to expect there will be no discussion about developments in what it considers its own neighbourhood. Still, I would focus on two key issues. According to all current assessments, Europe as a continent faces difficult years ahead, and 2030 is increasingly mentioned as a turning point. When I speak with Europe’s largest defence companies, it is clear that their production capacities are fully booked for at least the next three years,” Radulovic concluded.

Marko Savkovic of the ISAC Fund agreed that defence spending and Ukraine would dominate the agenda, while also pointing out that Turkey would use the summit to promote its own strategic interests.

“I think the primary issue is the push to increase defence spending. That has always been a NATO topic, but now the target has been raised to five percent of GDP, which is remarkable. Until recently, allocating more than two percent seemed unrealistic, whereas now many member states have already exceeded that level and some are moving toward the five-percent target,” he told Kosovo Online.

Savkovic stressed that pressure to increase defence spending comes both from Washington and from Eastern European countries bordering Russia.

“The second major topic is the €60 billion package for Ukraine, intended for the procurement of weapons and military equipment. However, that has largely already been agreed upon, and I believe consensus will be reached,” he said.

Another issue on the summit agenda, according to Savkovic, will be rebuilding NATO’s military stockpiles and strengthening security in areas facing elevated security risks, including Kosovo.

“It is still not entirely clear what exactly that will entail, but everything revolves around rearmament, force repositioning and continued adaptation to potential threats, with Russia remaining the primary threat and perhaps China becoming the second in the future. NATO itself does not formulate it in exactly those terms. And, of course, there are global flashpoints, including the Western Balkans, namely Kosovo, where NATO still maintains its mission,” Savkovic added.

Speaking about defence spending by NATO member states, Savkovic said the Trump administration was pressing European allies to assume greater responsibility for the continent’s defence.

He concluded that tensions within the Alliance were unlikely to increase, adding that Turkey would make particular use of the summit to advance its own interests.

“It is no coincidence that the summit is taking place in Turkey—that is clearly in Turkey’s interest. Ankara wants all remaining restrictions on arms imports imposed at a time when it was moving closer to Russia to be lifted. At that time, the United States decided it could not supply Turkey with certain systems, above all the F-35 fighter aircraft, as well as other advanced military systems,” he explained.

Commenting on reports that the next NATO Summit might not be held in Albania as planned because of President Trump’s dissatisfaction with Albania’s level of defence spending, Savkovic said this should also be viewed as a form of pressure on Tirana. He added that the issue could likewise be linked to protests against Jared Kushner’s investment project.

“It is certainly a convenient way of putting pressure on Albania and Prime Minister Rama, who could probably increase defence spending, although budgetary resources are not unlimited. If you allocate more funds to one area, you inevitably have to reduce spending elsewhere. There are many arguments in favour of NATO holding the summit in Albania. Albania is still a relatively new member, a country undergoing the EU enlargement process, and it remains strongly pro-NATO and pro-American. However, there is another issue—the protests against the Sazan project. If I were looking for a reason why the venue might change, I would sooner point to those protests than to defence spending,” Savkovic concluded.

Analyst Nexhmedin Spahiu told Kosovo Online that he expects NATO leaders in Ankara to devote most of their attention to the wars in Ukraine, Iran and Lebanon, as well as to developments in the Balkans.

“As for the conclusions, we can only speculate. They will most likely amount to a summary of the major developments that have taken place around the world,” Spahiu said.

He added that it is difficult to imagine NATO without the United States, while the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have placed the Alliance under considerable strain.

“They will probably try to find a solution and a compromise that will allow NATO to continue functioning,” he said.

Spahiu nevertheless noted that, after the summit, Alliance members would likely be closer to one another than they had been in recent months.

“When people meet, it means they are at least closer to reaching an agreement. When they stop meeting, that is when the danger of an organisation falling apart becomes much greater,” Spahiu concluded.