Savkovic: Focus of NATO summit will be defense spending and arming Ukraine

Marko Savkovic of the ISAC Fund told Kosovo Online that he expects the NATO summit in Ankara to focus primarily on increasing defense spending by Alliance members, arming Ukraine, and replenishing NATO's military stockpiles, while noting that discussions will also cover global security hotspots, including Kosovo.

"I think the first topic will be the desire, or pressure, to increase defense spending. That has always been a NATO issue, but now the idea is to raise it to five percent of GDP, which is extraordinary. On the other hand, until recently it seemed extraordinary for members to spend more than two percent, yet now a large number of member states are doing so, and some have already begun moving toward that five percent target," he said.

Savkovic pointed out that the pressure to increase defense spending comes from Washington as well as from Eastern European countries bordering Russia.

"The second major topic is the package intended for Ukraine in terms of procuring weapons and military equipment, worth 60 billion euros. However, that has largely already been agreed upon, and I think they will reach consensus on it," he said.

According to Savkovic, another topic of the summit will be rebuilding military capabilities for the Alliance as a whole, as well as addressing areas with elevated security risks, including Kosovo.

"It is still not entirely clear what exactly that entails, but everything revolves around it. Rearmament, new deployments, and a constant focus on potential threats, with Russia being the primary threat and perhaps China becoming the second in the future. We do not know that yet, nor does NATO formulate it in those terms. And, of course, there are hotspots around the world, including the Western Balkans, specifically Kosovo, where NATO continues to maintain a mission," Savkovic added.

Speaking about NATO members' defense spending, he said that US President Donald Trump's administration is pressuring European allies to assume greater responsibility for the continent's defense.

"He can always say, 'You are not contributing enough,' and threaten to withdraw troops. Of course, he will not withdraw them, but he can make the threat. In that dynamic, the United States once again positions itself as indispensable, as the cornerstone of European security, even though many voices in Europe argue that this is no longer the case and that Europe should finally develop its own security and defense policy," Savkovic noted.

He concluded that tensions among Alliance members are unlikely to increase, adding that Turkey will use the opportunity to promote its own interests.

"It is no coincidence that the summit is taking place in Turkey, as that serves the country's interests. Turkey wants all remaining restrictions on arms imports, imposed when it flirted with the idea of moving closer to Russia, to be lifted. At the time, the United States took the position that it could not supply Turkey with certain systems, primarily F-35 fighter jets, as well as other advanced systems," he explained.

He emphasized that Turkey's defense industry is exceptionally strong and, among other things, plays an important role in the war in Ukraine.

"It is clear that the goal is to ensure that Turkey remains where it is now, an ally and part of the alliance, rather than becoming isolated and sidelined," Savkovic assessed.

Commenting on reports that next year's NATO summit might not be held in Albania as planned because of Trump's dissatisfaction with Albania's defense spending, Savkovic said that this also represents a form of pressure on Tirana, adding that it could also be linked to protests against Jared Kushner's project.

"It is certainly a convenient way to pressure Albania and Prime Minister Rama, who could probably increase defense spending, but budget allocations are not unlimited. If you allocate more funds to one area, you have to cut spending somewhere else. There are many arguments in favor of NATO holding the summit in Albania. Albania is still a relatively new member, a country involved in the enlargement process, and it is strongly pro-NATO and pro-American. But there is another issue, namely the protests against the Sazan project. If we are looking for a reason why the venue might change, I would sooner bet on those protests than on defense spending," Savkovic concluded.