No major expectations from the dialogue before the end of the year

A new round of dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina at the level of chief negotiators will take place tomorrow in Brussels. According to sources from Kosovo Online, this could be one of the last meetings with Miroslav Lajcak as mediator. Compared to the previous round on October 24, no progress is expected, nor is it likely that any agreement will be reached on any issue by the end of the year.

Written by Dusica Radeka Djordjevic

Belgrade’s chief negotiator, Petar Petkovic, and Pristina’s Besnik Bislimi will travel to Brussels. European Commission spokesperson Anita Hipper announced that the meeting will address a range of issues, including the implementation of the Agreement on the Path to Normalization.

Petkovic has stated that he will once again insist on a trilateral meeting, emphasizing that the Serbian side has the political will to move toward resolving all issues, particularly those already agreed upon.

On the other hand, Kosovo Deputy Prime Minister Besnik Bislimi said no results should be expected from tomorrow’s meeting, citing a “critical moment” due to the attack on the Ibar-Lepenac canal, the arrival of new personnel in the European Commission, and the departure of EU Special Representative for Dialogue Miroslav Lajcak. According to Bislimi, this is not the ideal time to start “anything significant.”

While Lajcak stated after the October round that there had been no progress regarding the implementation of the 2023 Agreement on the Path to Normalization, he expressed optimism about potential progress on other key issues.

Dragisa Mijacic, Coordinator of the National Convention on the EU Working Group for Chapter 35, views tomorrow’s dialogue round as more of a formal meeting. He said progress is unlikely due to the ongoing election campaign in Kosovo.

“This meeting can be seen as routine for this time of year. There is usually some sort of meeting between representatives of Belgrade and Pristina before the Christmas break, during which long-standing issues are reviewed. I don’t believe a trilateral meeting will happen, and even if it does, I doubt any agreement will be reached,” Mijacic told Kosovo Online.

Regarding the agenda, he noted that the sequential plan — the implementation plan for the Brussels-Ohrid Agreement — would likely be discussed.

“The question is whether this is the last meeting organized by Lajcak, given that Kaja Kallas has assumed the position of High Representative for Foreign Policy. It’s unclear whether Lajcak will retain his role or leave, likely in January or February. If he does leave, this could be one of his final meetings, if not the last,” Mijacic stated.

When asked whether Belgrade and Pristina have different views on what should be implemented first from the Brussels-Ohrid Agreement, Mijacic pointed out the lack of clear implementation steps from Lajcak and the EU.

“They should not have left this constructive ambiguity for both sides to accuse each other over what comes first. It is expected that the first step would be to send the statute for the Community of Serb Municipalities (CSM) to the Kosovo government for Constitutional Court review, but the Kosovo government refuses to do so. Meanwhile, the Kosovo government has set three of its own conditions, as it always does during negotiations. Considering the current election campaign, I genuinely doubt Kurti will withdraw his proposal or accept further implementation of the Ohrid Agreement or work on the sequential plan,” Mijacic said.

In such circumstances, he added, the key question is how to maintain peace until the Kosovo elections, expressing hope that there would be no provocations and that the pre-election period would end without incidents.

Stefan Surlic, an assistant professor at the Faculty of Political Science in Belgrade, is also pessimistic about any new agreements in the dialogue before the end of the year. With elections in Kosovo scheduled for February, Surlic said it is not in Pristina’s political interest to make any concessions to Belgrade.

At this moment, Surlic told Kosovo Online, a new agenda from the European Commission is expected, as well as clarity on whether Miroslav Lajcak will be replaced as mediator or whether Kaja Kallas, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, will take on a dominant role in negotiating between Belgrade and Pristina.

Surlic added that even previously agreed measures are unlikely to be implemented in the near future.

“Perhaps issues like free trade, opening additional border crossings, and facilitating faster goods flow at Medar will be addressed through technical solutions. But even in this area, the end of the year is a tight deadline, despite general agreement among international actors, Belgrade, and Pristina to enable free trade,” he said.

When asked if tomorrow’s dialogue might address the attack on the Ibar-Lepenac canal, Surlic said political accusations could be exchanged, but no progress would likely result.

“It will probably conclude with a call for an investigation and for the competent authorities to make their judgment. Belgrade has openly offered international oversight for the investigation, but this won’t be a topic for the dialogue, just as the Banjska incident wasn’t. All field incidents must first undergo a final assessment by the competent authorities to determine who is behind them and who is undermining peace between Serbs and Albanians,” Surlic explained.

Political analyst Belgzim Kamberi from Pristina also believes the meeting will be largely procedural, with no major progress expected in the dialogue or in implementing the Brussels-Ohrid Agreement. This is due to Kosovo's elections and the ongoing leadership transition in the U.S. and EU institutions following internal elections.

“The dialogue remains at the implementation plan stage, specifically the sequential plan. Pristina demands that Belgrade recognize Kosovo’s symbols and support its inclusion in international organizations, while Belgrade insists that the statute for the CSM be submitted to the Constitutional Court first. Under these circumstances and with such tactics, no significant progress can be expected,” Kamberi told Kosovo Online.

He also doubts there will be a high-level meeting between Albin Kurti and Aleksandar Vucic by the end of the year.

“Not only is Prime Minister Kurti unlikely to agree to meet President Vucic before the elections, but it is also difficult to imagine Vucic finding time for such a meeting due to the current circumstances and recent events in Belgrade and the tragedy in Novi Sad,” Kamberi concluded.