Open Balkan - half full or half empty glass?

The wine fair 'Wine Vision by Open Balkan', which brought together around 350 exhibitors from Serbia, North Macedonia, and Albania in Belgrade in recent days, is closing today. Although the 'closure' of this regional platform has been predicted in recent months, economic experts and analysts, speaking to Kosovo Online, assess that the Open Balkan Initiative has the potential to survive.

To achieve this, they believe it would be desirable to establish institutional cooperation between the ministries of the participating countries, and all agreements signed between the participants in the initiative should be implemented on the ground. In Montenegro, they see a possible future member of the Open Balkan.

Just as it was noted that Montenegrin President Jakov Milatovic was a guest at the opening of the wine fair in Belgrade, it is also noted that Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama, one of the initiators of the Open Balkan, was absent, who has been considered the weakest link in the initiative for some time. However, he addressed via a video message, saying, 'Connecting our countries with the world and not connecting with each other is short-sighted'.

On that occasion, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic stated that the Open Balkan was an established platform for peace, and North Macedonian Prime Minister Dimitar Kovacevski said that Open Balkan opened up paths of cooperation for countries in the region.

However, are the words of politicians sufficient for the Open Balkan, founded in 2019 as the 'Mini Schengen', to survive?

Professor at the Faculty of Economics in Belgrade, Predrag Bjelic, says that it is necessary to establish institutional cooperation between the ministries of the member countries for the work within the initiative to be more operational. However, he adds that it is questionable whether that will happen.

"I'm afraid there is some obstacle in the form of the overlapping of political influences from abroad that can affect it. We saw, there was a wine fair, which was previously organized. That is, for example, one visible side of this initiative, although I think that cooperation is more driven by companies and chambers of commerce that have good cooperation within the region than it is implemented by the governments", Bjelic assesses for Kosovo Online.

The greatest achievements of the Open Balkan, he says, are measures to facilitate trade and border crossings, agreements between states on recognizing authorized economic operators initiated in CEFTA but operationalized in the Open Balkan, as well as the joint promotion of the region through events such as fairs.

Bjelic says that at one point it was evident that Albania was politically withdrawing from this initiative, despite being, in his opinion, one of the biggest advocates of the entire process. He also emphasizes that it would be very important for Serbia if Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina joined the Open Balkan.

He explains that Open Balkan came to life at a political moment when North Macedonia and Albania were blocked on the European path and that it was a regional response to that situation.

"On the other hand, since CEFTA was politically blocked due to the Kosovo-Serbia relations, it was a favorable moment for Serbia, North Macedonia, and Albania to create their own regional integration. This is, let's say, the first initiative that comes directly from the region. All these others were stimulated from outside, and it primarily came to life politically, although its basic purpose is economic, meaning the liberalization of trade in the region", Bjelic says.

As he says, Open Balkan is actually a subregional integration in which three out of seven signatories of CEFTA are involved.

"Any cooperation is welcome, and every liberalization contributes further to the development of regional trade. I believe the lack of initiative is that only three sides are involved, and even if more of them entered, the question arises, what do we need this for if we already have CEFTA? Some strategic decisions need to be made, and coordination of work is necessary because the goal should be to establish the most liberal market in the region and accession to the European Union", Bjelic says.

Analyst and communication expert from North Macedonia, Petar Arsovski, believes that the Open Balkan Initiative is currently in a kind of hibernation but will experience a renaissance because the region's accession to the European Union will be on a slow track.

As the EU slows down the accession process due to its internal dilemmas and debates, as well as dilemmas in the candidate countries in the Balkans, I think that process will revive and experience a renaissance. This regional initiative, with a common market, is good both as an economic and political initiative because it increases the EU's interest in the Western Balkans. To revive, symbolic gestures like a wine fair or joint meetings of leaders are not enough; it must undergo true implementation on the ground when it comes to borders, recognition of documents, free movement of people, ideas, and capital", Arsovski says for Kosovo Online.

Although numerous agreements have been signed within the Open Balkan Initiative, Arsovski believes that signed documents and their implementation on the ground in the Balkans are often two different things.

"We have documents guaranteeing free passage at borders, yet at the borders, you have two points where you must stop and provide documents. We have signed agreements for recognizing diplomas, certificates, and qualifications, yet in different countries, this is subject to various certifications. So, there is some difference between what is on paper and what happens on the ground. One of the good initiatives that has worked is abolishing roaming charges for the Western Balkans, so initiatives that citizens immediately feel and that have been implemented are worth more than signed agreements on paper. It is important for this initiative to remain alive, for countries to have the political will to implement it, and to dedicate themselves to implementation so that citizens have confidence in the process. Favorable times are coming for this because accession to the EU will be, conditionally speaking, on a slow track due to internal problems in the EU, not only because of the failure to implement reforms and align external policies with the EU, so the Open Balkan will be doubly significant in the next period", Arsovski says.

He believes that Montenegro and Bosnia should definitely be a part of this initiative and says that the EU will pay attention to this region, "the larger we are, and the more fragmented we are, the less their interest in joining".

When it comes to Albania and the possibility of it leaving the Open Balkan Initiative, Arsovski says that if the EU insists that two regional processes - the Berlin Process and Open Balkan - cannot coexist, then it is possible that Albania will decide that Open Balkan is dead for them and will turn to the Berlin Process. At the same time, Arsovski also says that in the end, Open Balkan and the Berlin Process may even merge into a joint initiative.

Economist Mihailo Gajic believes that the Open Balkan Initiative has a future.

"The greatest current benefits we see from it are in the domain of crossing borders for goods, in the mutual recognition of phytosanitary certificates. In other words, trucks no longer have to wait for hours at the border; they pass through customs procedures more quickly. For example, Serbian customs accept documents issued by laboratories in Albania and North Macedonia, which speeds up and reduces the costs of trade. This is particularly positive for us consumers who later buy these goods on the shelves", Gajic says for Kosovo Online.

He notes that it is also essential that the regional labor market has been in operation since July.

"By registering on the website, you can enter your name and surname and get a kind of temporary unique master citizen number (JMBG) that is valid in all three countries, members of the Open Balkan. In other words, you don't have to seek a work permit later if you are a citizen of one of these three countries to work in them. For now, we see that. Open Balkan originated as a kind of response to the fact that such agreements within the Berlin Process were blocked due to poor political relations between some countries, primarily Montenegro and Kosovo if we accept it as some kind of extra-territorial unit in relation to Serbia. When all six countries and entities need to agree on something, it goes much slower and more difficult than when only those three are ready to deepen mutual cooperation. And that's why Open Balkan has been more successful in initiatives than the Berlin Process", Gajic believes.

He adds that the results of the Berlin Process, backed by EU bureaucracy, are almost minimal or practically nonexistent compared to the situation with the Open Balkan, and that "it is quite clear which of these regional initiatives is currently producing results".

"Open Balkan can serve as a kind of 'laboratory' to prove what works and how in this region", Gajic says.

According to him, there is a possibility that Montenegro will become a member of the Open Balkan within a year, taking into account the political changes in that country.

"As for Bosnia and Herzegovina, some politicians there, such as some ministers like Elmedin Konakovic, give quite conciliatory statements regarding Open Balkan, considering that the main goal is actually trade and economic integration and has little to do with politics", Gajic notes.

However, he still mentions that he is not sure, due to the history of the 1990s, that there is a possibility of Bosnia and Herzegovina joining this initiative soon, emphasizing that this also applies to Kosovo.

"I think they will look more towards the Berlin Process as a kind of way to deepen regional cooperation and the regional market", Gajic believes.