The opposition in Pristina announces a series of protests: Will Kurti be overthrown in the street?

The political crisis in Pristina caused by fierce criticism, but also by specific institutional actions of the opposition against Prime Minister Albin Kurti and the government he leads due to the violation of relations with allies and isolation, could in the coming weeks "spill over" to the streets, in a series of protests primarily caused by dissatisfaction with the catastrophic economic situation in which Kosovo is, according to the interlocutors of Kosovo Online, professors Rastislav Stojsavljevic and Mazllum Baraliu.

The political crisis in Pristina caused by fierce criticism, but also by specific institutional actions of the opposition against Prime Minister Albin Kurti and the government he leads due to the violation of relations with allies and isolation, could in the coming weeks "spill over" to the streets, in a series of protests primarily caused by dissatisfaction with the catastrophic economic situation in which Kosovo is, according to the interlocutors of Kosovo Online, professors Rastislav Stojsavljevic and Mazllum Baraliu.

The Albanian opposition is in agreement that Kurti's latest moves in the north have put Kosovo in a difficult position, but for now, there is no unity on how to change the government. The president of the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo, Ramush Haradinaj, called on the rest of the opposition, above all the PDK and LDK, "if they are sincere in their position that this government should be stopped at all costs because it is destroying Kosovo, then they should accept the Alliance's proposal to vote of no confidence in Kurti and his government.

KLA veterans protested last week that they were exempted from the Minimum Wage Law, also demanding that Kurti leave and announcing a series of demonstrations if their demands were not met.

According to the Professor of the University of Novi Sad, Rastislav Stojsavljevic, these protests are not accidental and could be a prelude to serious internal pressure that Kurti could face in the coming weeks. He does not rule out the possibility that they are synchronized with the pressures coming from outside, and due to Kurti's uncooperativeness in meeting the demands of the US and the EU for de-escalation in the north.

"Pristina's non-cooperation in the dialogue with Belgrade has been officially recognized to this extent by the Western power centers for the first time. For the first time, they are openly critical of Kurti's regime and this is now clearly shown. According to what has been happening in Pristina in recent days, the criticism of the opposition, and the fight in the parliament when Kurti was practically not allowed to speak, shows that there is a certain opposition to Kurti and that, if he is not cooperative, from the perspective of the West, he can be replaced," Stojsavljevic says.

"Kurti still has some room for maneuvering in the next month or two, and he will use it as much as he can. We will see if he will continue to withdraw the Kosovo Police in the vicinity of the municipal buildings in the north, which is only a trick, because he does not want to fundamentally de-escalate the situation, but to show that he is cooperative, not with Belgrade, but with the West. He will try to use this room for maneuver, which is much bigger for Pristina than for Belgrade, until the fall, until September, to assert himself that he is still the leader who can be counted on. However, I think that Kurti's time is slowly running out and that certain opposition forces are slowly preparing to complicate his political life," our interlocutor says.

He believes that Kurti's position as Prime Minister could be shaken the most by the economic situation, that is, by protests due to the disastrous economic situation in which Kosovo is.

"First of all, economic and social protests will await him. Both the Albanians and the Serbs in Kosovo, like everywhere in the world, first look at their wallets. In Kosovo, the economic situation is very bad, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic, and the crises caused by Pristina are only making things worse. People are leaving Kosovo en masse, it is literally emptying. Now the EU measures have come due to the refusal to give up violent actions in the north, Kosovo has been denied European funds, and investors certainly do not look favorably on everything that is happening. As long as Kurti was cooperative from the point of view of the West, these problems, which existed before, were not questioned. But now, as his cooperation ends, all these accumulated internal problems of theirs will come to light and will most likely 'spill over' into the streets in the form of protests," Stojsavljevic points out.

He adds that, however, all these protests will be "dosed" by the West as much as it is necessary to "discipline" Kurti.

"I wouldn't expect too much here, because as I said, there is still room for maneuver to make some moves that are acceptable to the West. If he crosses the line, then we should definitely count on early elections. It may even be an option that suits Kurti because it is a classic way to buy time because then there will be a political vacuum, a technical government... If he wants to delay fulfilling some of the obligations that he has to, according to international agreements and the law, then Kurti himself could resort to early elections as an exit strategy. I have no illusions that he will agree to form the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities, he will buy time as long as he can to postpone it," he believes.

Stojsavljevic emphasizes that, on the other hand, Kurti invested in too many political roles, forcing illegitimate elections in the north with three percent of voters, sending the police to the north, and imposing mayors elected with several hundred votes each.

"I think that his insistence to spite the political West is not a bluff because he knows that now any withdrawal will be his political minus. On the other hand, he is gradually trying to mobilize the right-wing electorate and thereby strengthen his support, whether war veterans, those who still have in their minds what happened in the 90s and 2008, because that is good 'political capital' for him if it comes to early elections. Kurti will raise the stake as much as he can in order to strengthen his electorate. When he raises the stake to the maximum, without being able to withdraw without political damage, I do not rule out that he will go to the elections," the Professor explains.

Constitutional Law Professor Mazllum Baraliu said that it could not be said with certainty that the coming months would be "hot" for Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti, but that, in the context of the dialogue with Serbia, they would certainly be intense, because the international community had announced that it would pay more attention to the dialogue, as well as the Brussels and Ohrid agreements.

According to him, the most that the Kosovo opposition can achieve with the boycott and announced protests is to "disrupt" the work of Kosovo's institutions.

"The opposition has now become more active than ever before. The opposition parties are not unique either, but they are quite determined to boycott the work of the Assembly this time. This is the main obstacle that will affect the functioning of Kosovo's institutions to some extent. The opposition has decided, and primarily the Democratic Party of Kosovo, that it will not participate in any session of the Assembly, that it will not vote for agreements, and they have also begun to withdraw from various committees. This will certainly affect the functioning of the activities of the Presidency of the Assembly and the Assembly, as well as the work of the Government of Kosovo," Baraliu said.

He added that there would most likely be various activities in the coming months, but that he did not believe that a major crisis would happen.

When asked if the institutional crisis could be "transferred to the streets", that is, if citizens organized mass protests, Baraliu reminded that the minimum wage, despite the increase, was still the lowest in the Balkans.

"There may be some dissatisfaction, but I do not see that the strength of the opposition is strong enough, nor the will of the voters to join the opposition in serious protests that would shake the government and institutions. I do not see the strength of the opposition to impose changes or even the dissolution of the Assembly," Baraliu said.

According to him, the opposition is not powerful and strong enough to articulate protests.

According to Baraliu, it is the bad economic situation that can mobilize citizens to protest.

"But the people are peaceful; they are used to poverty and social problems. Unfortunately, no government has managed to put the solution to citizens' problems on the agenda. There are up to 26 systems in Kosovo for social benefits, and there is no unified pension insurance system, nor is there a health insurance system. Kosovo is the only one in Europe, probably in the world, that does not have a merit-based pension system, but a linear system. Pensions are minimal, from 100 to 260 euros for those with a university degree, while they don't pay you for the master’s and doctoral degrees," Baraliu said.

Given that, as he says, the people are used to bad economic conditions, the opposition will not be able to force them to protest which would lead to significant changes.

"I am not convinced that the call carried out by the opposition on the ground will be successful, that is, a civic activity that would create serious pressure in terms of improving social and economic conditions," Baraliu said.

Regarding the Law on Minimum Wage, which was adopted at the last session of the Assembly, and led to protests by KLA veterans, because they were left out of the increase in compensation, Baraliu says that first of all, it should be established that there really were no fake lists, that is, "fake veterans".

"Like previous governments, the current one has not said that it will not take into account the rights of KLA veterans, however, this government will probably investigate and clear up the issue with certain commissions and bodies as to whether there were certain omissions and an artificial increase in the number of KLA veterans. As another reason, the Kosovo government stated that the minimum wage could not be compared to veterans' monetary benefits. No one is against veterans, but the government wants to investigate all of this to the end," Baraliu said.

He has no doubts that the veterans will continue their protests, because, as he says, they are aware of their power.