Trump repeatedly mentions Serbia and Kosovo – What lies behind the Rhetoric?

At a time when Washington’s foreign policy focus is directed primarily at the Middle East, Russia and Ukraine, and the Indo-Pacific, U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly highlighted the issue of Serbia-Kosovo relations in a series of public statements. Despite the relative calm in the Western Balkans compared to global flashpoints, observers interviewed by Kosovo Online suggest that Trump may once again turn his attention to the Belgrade–Pristina dialogue.

By Dusica Radeka Djordjevic

During a press conference at the White House on June 27, Trump stated that he had done many things during his term, citing the Serbia-Kosovo issue among them.

"Serbia and Kosovo were on the verge of conflict. They were heading toward a major war. I told them—if you go to war, there will be no more trade with the U.S. And they told me they might not go to war," Trump said.

Earlier, in an interview with Fox News, he again referred to Serbia and Kosovo in the context of crises he had helped manage—issues he believes could have earned him the Nobel Peace Prize.

In mid-June, posting on his social media platform Truth Social, Trump stated that during his first term he had stopped a Serbia–Kosovo conflict that was “on the brink of war.” He blamed President Joe Biden for jeopardizing long-term peace through “very foolish decisions,” adding that he would “fix it again.”

When exactly this "fix" will find a place on the packed agenda of the U.S. President remains to be seen.

According to Aleksandra Joksimovic, Director of the Center for Foreign Policy, the frequency and tone of Trump’s recent remarks suggest that he may seek to reengage with the Belgrade–Pristina dialogue. However, she noted that it remains uncertain whether the U.S. administration will have the bandwidth to fully commit to the issue.

Joksimovic observed that Trump appears eager to tackle high-stakes international challenges.

“He attempted to resolve the war in Ukraine, though so far unsuccessfully. He also made efforts to mediate between Israel and Gaza, and even Israel and Iran—particularly through early negotiations with Tehran that eventually failed, leading to open conflict involving the U.S. The nuclear deal now seems off the table, and it's unclear whether the recent attacks have neutralized Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Given the sheer number of global issues—from Ukraine to the Indo-Pacific—it’s questionable whether the U.S. has the capacity to engage in new areas and when,” Joksimovic told Kosovo Online.

Still, she believes that a lack of progress in other diplomatic arenas might push Trump to refocus on the Balkans.

Some U.S. analysts, such as Charles Kupchan—a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and a former official in past U.S. administrations—have expressed similar views.

Joksimovic recalled that the Washington Agreement was one of Trump’s final foreign policy actions in his first term, and the key question now is how he might approach the issue again: would he push for full implementation of the existing agreement or propose new, innovative solutions?

"What would likely remain unchanged, judging by past behavior, is the lack of coordination with the European Union. On matters ranging from Ukraine to the Middle East, the U.S. has often sidelined the EU. Before the Washington Agreement was signed, there were alternative proposals for resolving the Serbia-Kosovo dispute—but European influence halted the development of some ideas that Trump had reportedly supported,” she noted.

Petar Donic, a researcher at Novi treći put (New Third Way), also believes that renewed U.S. attention to the region is a real possibility. He points out that when the Trump administration repeatedly highlights an issue, there is a strong likelihood that it will act on it.

However, Donic cautioned that Trump’s statements must always be viewed through the lens of his unorthodox communication style.

“He claimed the parties were on the brink of conflict and that he helped de-escalate the situation, though those of us living here might see things differently. Nonetheless, it’s entirely possible that the region will receive renewed attention, despite prior claims that the Balkans are currently not a priority for the U.S. given the relevance of Indo-Pacific and NATO-related issues,” Donic told Kosovo Online.

Donic noted that Trump now has a strong incentive to project himself as a global peacemaker.

“He won the presidency on that platform, and his MAGA base—the most loyal segment of his support—expects him to deliver results. While he did intervene in Iran, it resulted in a fragile and tentative ceasefire. All of this suggests a strong desire within the administration to showcase foreign policy success,” he said.

Should Trump and his team actively reenter the Serbia–Kosovo negotiation process, Donic believes the appointment of a new special envoy, as seen during his first term, is likely.

“That could be the preferred approach. However, Trump is currently facing staffing challenges. Some key aides from his previous term have moved on. This is a continuing trend—we’ve seen high turnover in Trump’s circle. Expectations are high, and the issues are increasingly complex. It's unclear who might be appointed. There’s been speculation about Richard Grenell, but he is reportedly engaged in more pressing global matters, while the Balkans remain relatively stable in comparison,” Donic said.

He added that any renewed American engagement would likely retain an economic focus.

“This was also the case in Trump’s first term, when the agenda emphasized regional economic integration under the theory that economic ties would foster political closeness. If we look at recent appointments to the State Department and ambassadorial roles, this economic-first approach appears to be continuing,” Donic concluded.

Meanwhile, security analyst Hisen Geçaj from Pristina said that Trump’s repeated references to his role in preventing conflict between Serbia and Kosovo signal his continued interest in the region and its stability.

“These statements suggest that a new round of meetings between Serbia and Kosovo aimed at finding a sustainable solution could take place in the near future,” Geçaj told Kosovo Online.