Donic: It’s not excluded that the US might refocus on our region through the economy

Petar Donic, an associate of the New Third Way, stated for Kosovo Online that analyses have shown that when the administration of US President Donald Trump emphasizes a particular topic, there is a greater tendency that it will actually engage with it. For that reason, he believes it is not out of the question that the US will give some attention to our region and the Belgrade–Pristina dialogue in the coming period.

Regarding Trump’s frequent mentions of the Serbia–Kosovo relationship and the potential conflict he claims to have prevented, Donic says that all of Trump’s statements should always be viewed “through the Trump lens,” as he uses a liberal communication style where his remarks may carry varying degrees of emphasis.

“He said that the parties were ready for conflict and that he intervened to reduce tensions, while those of us who live here know that things may have looked a little different. On the other hand, he has recently mentioned it several times, and analyses, especially in this Trump term, show that the administration tends to focus more on issues it communicates frequently. So, it is entirely possible that our region will receive some attention in the near future, even though various officials and speculations have claimed otherwise, that the region is currently not in focus due to the importance of the Pacific and the issues involving Ukraine and NATO,” Donic told Kosovo Online.

Given Trump’s current political position, Donic says he has the need to further reinforce rhetoric and show results that could present him as a peacemaker.

“He won the election on that platform, and his Republican MAGA base, which is the most loyal to him, expects results in that direction. For example, in Iran, he did intervene, and that resulted in a fragile but increasingly stable truce. All of that shows they have a strong need to present some form of success,” Donic emphasized.

If Trump and his administration were to actively re-engage in the Belgrade–Pristina dialogue process, Donic believes it is likely that their involvement would again come through a special envoy, as it did during Trump’s first term.

“That could be the model, although Trump currently faces staffing challenges. Some of the associates who were initially with him are gradually stepping away. This has been a trend since his last term; his staff doesn't tend to stay long within the Trump administration. Expectations are high, and politics is very complex, especially today. We don’t know who might be the envoy. There has been speculation it could be Grenell, but he is currently assigned to more important tasks given the global instability, while our region is relatively calm compared to what’s happening around the world,” Donic said.

As for how the US might continue to show interest in the region, Donic assesses that, based on visible trends, this would again be through an economic lens. Supporting this are, he adds, various investment projects in the region, whether through Trump’s personal channels or official state ones.

“That was the case during the previous term too, when the agenda was economic integration of the region, with the bet being that if the region becomes economically closer, it will also become politically closer. If we look at who has been appointed in the State Department, to ambassadorial roles and as envoys, we see that this will again be the tendency, to continue the conversation through the economic angle,” Donic concluded.