The United Kingdom and the Berlin Process: A strategic lever to reinforce influence in the Western Balkans

Although the United Kingdom has been outside the European Union for five years, it will host the upcoming Berlin Process summit in October. This initiative, which brings together six Western Balkan countries, was also listed among the 17 projects outlined in the Agreement on Friendship and Bilateral Cooperation signed by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. According to analysts speaking to Kosovo Online, the Western Balkans are of strategic importance to London—particularly in terms of security, curbing illegal migration, and countering Russian influence. The Berlin Process serves as a key instrument for the UK to maintain its relevance in the region.

Written by: Dusica Radeka Djordjevic

The rotating presidency of the Berlin Process is determined in coordination with the German government, and after seven years, the role has once again been entrusted to the United Kingdom. In 2024, marking the tenth anniversary of the initiative launched by former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the summit was hosted in Berlin. In previous years, host cities included Tirana, Sofia, Poznań, Trieste, Paris, and Vienna.

“The United Kingdom will host the Berlin Process summit, which will bring together leaders from the six Western Balkan countries and other European states to support stability, security, and economic cooperation in the region,” states the UK-Germany bilateral agreement signed on July 17 by Merz and Starmer.

The Berlin Process, launched in 2014, has consistently aimed to foster regional cooperation and support the Western Balkans' path toward EU integration, through regional projects and initiatives designed to prepare the region for membership.

Aleksandra Joksimovic, former Serbian Ambassador to London, notes that the UK, while still an EU member, was one of the strongest advocates—alongside Germany—of the Union’s enlargement. Although Brexit reduced some of its levers of influence in the region, London remains committed to active engagement.

“The war in Ukraine has reintroduced many issues to the agenda, including the reassessment of UK-EU relations. Security has emerged as a key concern not only for Brussels and other EU capitals but also for London. At present, deterring the influence of third actors—especially the Russian Federation—is a major item on the UK’s Western Balkans agenda,” Joksimovic explained. She added that the UK has long expressed concern for regional stability, particularly in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

“The Belgrade–Pristina dialogue has consistently been high on the agenda. As a result of Brexit, the UK appointed its first Special Envoy for the Western Balkans—currently Dame Karen Pierce, a highly experienced diplomat who has served in key roles in New York and Washington. She has now been tasked with organizing the Berlin Process summit in London this October,” Joksimovic said.

Given that the Berlin Process requires coordination among all participants, Joksimovic does not believe London will pursue an independent initiative through this platform.

“I am confident that intensive diplomatic discussions are currently underway—not only regarding the summit’s agenda but also the direction of discussions around the continuation of the EU enlargement process. Migration will also be a major topic. With the looming threat of renewed conflict in Syria, there is concern over a possible new wave of migration, potentially again via the Western Balkans,” she added.

According to Professor Shkumbin Misini, an economist from Pristina, the UK is interested in the Berlin Process because of its significant investment in the European Union and its desire to join EU efforts to ensure peace and stability in the Western Balkans.

“A small spark in the Balkans can have consequences for the EU. The UK wants to see a more stable region. Analysis shows that countries in the region are heavily influenced by Russian and Chinese investments, often tied to disinformation campaigns. That’s why the EU seeks to bring these countries into the fold through enlargement,” Misini told Kosovo Online, emphasizing that this is both an EU and UK geostrategic interest.

Anamarija Velinovska, a researcher at the Institute for Democracy in Skopje, believes that the UK’s interest in the Berlin Process stems from its foreign policy priorities. Under the leadership of Keir Starmer, one of those priorities is rebuilding relationships with European partners; another is maintaining an active role in international aid and governance.

“The Western Balkans fall within both of these priorities as part of the European continent. EU enlargement remains a vital element of EU foreign policy, and I believe the UK still wants to be seen as an actor of significance in Europe,” Velinovska said. She noted that as this year’s host, London will have the opportunity to shape the summit’s priorities.

“Each year, the host country can determine the dominant themes. This year, those include security, defense, and migration—all of which are clearly of importance to the UK. They recently signed a security and defense partnership with the EU, and now also a bilateral agreement with Germany focused on illegal migration, cyber security, and foreign influence. Through its presidency of the Berlin Process, the UK can help set the political tone in the region,” Velinovska emphasized.

She added that British foreign policy is currently very security-driven, but this is part of a global trend.

“Given the region’s vulnerability to foreign influence and illegal migration, the UK sees this as a way to exert influence and remain a key player. Another area of interest lies in economically significant partnerships—particularly with North Macedonia. The two countries maintain a strategic partnership focused on investment and development. We can expect increased investment from the UK not only in North Macedonia but also in Serbia—for instance, in the Morava Corridor. Clearly, the economic dimension is crucial for the UK,” she concluded.

As with any major power, the UK also exerts soft power throughout the Balkans via its diplomatic presence, support for civil society organizations, student exchanges, and scholarship programs. Its appointment of Karen Pierce as Special Representative for the Western Balkans further underscores this interest.

Bledian Koka, editor-in-chief of TV Syri in Tirana, echoed Velinovska’s views. He sees Prime Minister Starmer’s approach as aimed at stabilizing UK–EU relations post-Brexit while maintaining the UK’s long-standing interest in the Western Balkans.

“Since 1999, the UK has had a military presence in Kosovo, seeing itself as a key regional actor. The UK’s participation in the Berlin Process—traditionally led by Germany and France—also serves another purpose: to balance what the West views as dangerous Russian and Chinese influence. Through its presence, the UK is attempting to help maintain that balance, which is of interest to both the EU and the UK,” Koka said.

He also pointed out that the UK has long viewed the Western Balkans as a source of challenges—including drug trafficking and money laundering.

“Let’s not forget that the UK has recently imposed sanctions and issued persona non grata designations for individuals from Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia due to their involvement in these criminal activities. These issues clearly impact the UK as well. One of the primary goals of the Berlin Process is to strengthen the rule of law and democracy. By engaging in this initiative, the UK believes it can help promote stability, fight organized crime and corruption, and create new opportunities for strategic investment in the Western Balkans,” he added.

Regional stability is also tied to relations between Belgrade and Pristina. During a recent visit to both capitals, Special Envoy Karen Pierce noted that the agreements reached in Brussels and Ohrid contain many constructive ideas that must be implemented. While dialogue was a central topic during her meetings with Serbian and Kosovan officials, Stefan Vladisavljev, Program Coordinator at the Belgrade Fund for Political Excellence (BFPE), does not believe the UK could outperform the EU in facilitating the dialogue process.

“From Robert Cooper to Catherine Ashton, the UK has historically played a role within the EU’s framework—often with a high level of engagement. But after Brexit, one of the many things it relinquished was relevance in the dialogue process. Today, the UK remains a contributor to regional cooperation, but by definition, it has no formal role in the dialogue,” Vladisavljev told Kosovo Online.

He noted that by leaving the EU, the UK has redefined its global strategic position, including its approach to regions of historic and economic importance. As a former great power, it seeks to remain active in the Western Balkans—not just through regional platforms but also via bilateral engagement.

“Hence the special envoys, their visits, and bilateral meetings. But in terms of substance, the UK’s impact is questionable, even if constructive. It has shown support for the Berlin Process, which has informally received the backing of all relevant actors as a framework for regional cooperation in the Western Balkans,” Vladisavljev concluded.