Von der Leyen in the region: Between mutual love and unilateral actions

We call on Kosovo to facilitate the process for accepting the Community of Serb Municipalities (CSM), and Serbia must accept de facto recognition," Ursula von der Leyen said during her visit to Pristina in October last year. A year later, the same tour around the region, the same European Commission president, the same demands on the table, but with a new stimulus in the form of millions of euros from the Growth Plan promised to both sides. On the condition that they make progress in the dialogue. And there is none. There are only unilateral actions.

Written by: Dragana Savic

There is also a new/old rhetoric on offer, promising a new momentum for EU enlargement and economic progress, with the message that Von der Leyen's visit shows that the region is important to the European Union.

Additionally, the European Commission yesterday approved the reform agendas of five Western Balkan partners, paving the way for disbursements from the Reform and Growth Instrument worth six billion euros.

The fact that the love is reciprocated is also shown by the messages from regional leaders about their strategic and firm commitment to staying on the European path.

But even if we accept that the feelings are sincere and mutual, that doesn’t mean the love is unconditional.

When it comes to Belgrade and Pristina, the Growth Plan is not just an instrument for economic stimulation of the region but also an attempt to break out of the political deadlock in the dialogue.

In this sense, Von der Leyen’s demand will be that “no conditions that cannot be negotiated between the parties are set in the dialogue,” says one of our sources.

In translation, something must be accepted without being openly discussed.

So, what will the president of the European Commission talk about in Belgrade and Pristina? Or more precisely, what will she stay silent about?

Slobodan Zecevic, director of the Institute for European Studies, told Kosovo Online that the visit of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to the region aims to send a political message that the Western Balkans belong in the EU and to prevent the potential influence of China and Russia in the area.

Zecevic assessed that Serbia has fulfilled all the EU's requirements for obtaining funds from the Growth Plan.

However, regarding Kosovo, the director believes that the other side is violating fundamental principles of free movement of goods.

"When it comes to Kosovo, I really don't know how she thinks she can solve that problem. One of the basic conditions for economic growth in the Western Balkans is not just obtaining funds, which is very important, but creating a single market in this region. When you look at Pristina's behavior over the past few years and now at this moment, when they are still obstructing the free flow of goods between central Serbia and Kosovo, I don't know what Ursula von der Leyen thinks she can tell them about that issue," Zecevic emphasized.

Pristina was completely blocking the import of Serbian goods, and now it is partially blocking them, which, as Zecevic points out, is fully punishable under some European standards and requires compensation to Serbian companies.

"The worst part is that these Serbian companies are not only Serbian; they are companies established by EU-based firms, often subsidiaries of European enterprises. The most concrete example is Henkel, which has so-called exports to Kosovo that should not face any obstacles. Their goods should cross the border without delays, yet now the goods wait at one crossing instead of three and wait for hours. This is also an obstruction of the free flow of goods and is punishable under EU laws and rights," he notes.

When asked whether the EU sanctions against Kosovo are an obstacle to the disbursement of funds from the Growth Plan, Zecevic explains that Kosovo's reform agenda "passed" with the European Commission, and Pristina has no restrictions on accessing the funds from the Growth Plan.

Analyst Afrim Kasoli told Kosovo Online that during her visit to Kosovo and Serbia, Ursula von der Leyen’s main focus will be to further encourage the dialogue process.

"In addition to completing the reform agenda set by Brussels as a condition for these countries, it should be noted that Kosovo and Serbia have two additional conditions compared to other countries, namely progress in the dialogue and its continuation. So, alongside the reform agenda, there is also the implementation of the obligations stemming from the basic Brussels Agreement and the Ohrid Agreement on implementation, which set two additional conditions for these two countries," Kasoli emphasizes.

He also notes that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that they expect new momentum in the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia.

"On the other hand, Kosovo is still under sanctions from Brussels precisely because of its refusal to comply with the international community’s demands to implement obligations arising from these agreements, including de-escalation in the northern part of Kosovo, etc. I am skeptical that these two countries will benefit from the funds if they do not show full willingness to respond to the calls of the international community in accordance with the obligations stemming from the dialogue," concludes Kasoli.

Political analyst Lulzim Farizi also told Kosovo Online that the main message of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen during her visit to the region will be that Kosovo and Serbia must cooperate and continue negotiations under the EU’s auspices.

"Therefore, the message in Belgrade and Pristina will be along those lines, that the two countries must cooperate and overcome the issue of Kosovo’s recognition. I think the main message will be to continue negotiations under the EU’s sponsorship and to be able to overcome the problem that has been stagnant for some time, especially since Kosovo is already entering a phase of preparations for the elections that will be held in February," says Farizi.

He adds that during this period, the Prime Minister of Kosovo will not enter into negotiations.

"Her message will be along the lines of keeping the negotiations between the two sides active in order to find a solution. The positions of the two sides are very different, but the EU's pressure will increase, especially considering regional issues like the war between Ukraine and Russia and the Middle East. The EU wants to maintain peace on the continent at all costs, particularly in the countries that are EU members and the Western Balkans, to prevent problems in the future," says our interlocutor.

Responding to the question of whether sanctions against Kosovo are an obstacle to the disbursement of funds from the Growth Plan, Farizi states that although there are EU sanctions against Kosovo, "in the future, they will begin to soften as the positions between Kosovo and Serbia soften."

Belgrade and Pristina can count on funds from the Growth Plan only if they are truly committed to the dialogue, says Marko Miskeljin from the Center for Social Stability in an interview for Kosovo Online.

He emphasizes that the conditions for receiving funds from the Growth Plan and the demands in the dialogue are different issues, but they are partially interdependent.

"That is why the ball is in Pristina's court, where they need to show a willingness for dialogue and a genuine desire to access those funds. On the other hand, Serbia cannot be faulted for anything when it comes to the dialogue and its approach to the issue, as confirmed by the fact that Serbia will soon access the first tranche of funds, which cannot be said for the Pristina administration," Miskeljin concludes.

He emphasizes that sanctions against Kosovo are indeed an obstacle to receiving funds from the Growth Plan.

"We have seen threats regarding the Berlin Process, with the Pristina administration not receiving an invitation or being denied hospitality, and that yielded results, as Serbian goods finally began to enter our southern province," he explains.

However, according to him, this process is moving very slowly, indicating a lack of seriousness.

"This wasn’t really done for the sake of dialogue, progress, or primarily for the betterment and normalization of life for the people in Kosovo and Metohija, especially the Serbs. The goal was to secure an invitation to that meeting, and after that, nothing concrete was done. Now, when we talk about funds, it is clearly an experience from which both the EU and others are learning, and they do not want the same situation to repeat. They want concrete results that will remain in effect," Miskeljin concludes.