What will Hungary's presidency of the EU Council bring to Serbia?

Hungary has designated the expansion to Western Balkan countries as one of the seven key priorities during its EU Council presidency. While Budapest announces changes under the slogan: "Make Europe Great Again," no matter how much Viktor Orban's messages please the public in Serbia, analysts remain skeptical. Few believe there will be any departure from the official EU discourse over the next six months.

In mid-June, Hungary officially announced its program and priorities for its EU presidency, which it will assume tomorrow, July 1.

As reported, the presidency's slogan will be "Make Europe Great Again," reminiscent of Donald Trump's campaign slogan for the U.S. presidential election, "Make America Great Again."

Budapest has highlighted seven key priorities, including the restoration of peace and security in Europe, as well as the expansion to Western Balkan countries.

Last week, Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó reiterated that Hungary's EU presidency will focus on the Union's expansion to the Western Balkans.

He stated that Hungary will open new chapters in accession negotiations with Serbia and conduct intergovernmental talks with all five Western Balkan membership candidates in an effort to accelerate EU expansion in the region.

Strahinja Subotic from the European Policy Centre told Kosovo Online that this is good news for Serbian citizens.

"What Hungary can bring to Serbia is that a neighboring EU member state will strongly prioritize expansion policy. If you look at their presidency program, expansion policy is third among the seven priorities. This is not often the case. With Hungary, as a country in our region and one that knows us well and has good relations with Serbs, this is certainly good news for our citizens," said Subotic.

He also reminded that the European Commissioner for Neighborhood and Enlargement is currently Hungarian diplomat Olivér Várhelyi.

"We now have the situation where we have a commissioner for enlargement from Hungary and Hungary presiding at a time when new functions and the new balance of power after the European Parliament elections are being discussed. In this regard, Hungary's key priority will be, on one hand, to convince other member states to prioritize expansion and, on the other, to ensure that the transition of power from the old to the new EU institutional cycle happens effectively," said our interlocutor.

Although she agrees that Hungary's EU Council presidency is favorable news for Serbia, Helena Ivanov, a research associate at the Henry Jackson Society, nevertheless believes it will not significantly change the current EU policy.

"We can certainly say it is a good thing that Hungary will preside and that this will benefit Serbia, especially since Serbia may have slightly strained relations with some other EU countries compared to Hungary. However, on the other hand, I wouldn't give it much significance, if only because of the way decisions within the EU are made, which is unanimously or at least by majority," Ivanov told Kosovo Online.

She views the Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó's announcement more as a political statement than one based on facts.

"For any chapter or cluster to open for any country, not just Serbia, the support of all EU member states is required. So Hungary, even as the presiding country, cannot promise something like that without some guarantees from other countries. The problem is that, at least at this moment, I don't see any reason why the EU would want to expand," said Ivanov.

She reminded that Macron clearly stated that now is not the time for expansion, and other countries have not shown great appetite for expansion either.

"After the European Parliament elections in which the right had relatively positive results compared to other options, I think that appetite for expansion has further decreased. So, despite Szijjártó's promises, I am not overly optimistic that many chapters will open soon or that Western Balkan countries will join the EU in the near future," she said.

Nemanja Todorovic Stiplija, director of the Center for Contemporary Politics and editor of the European Western Balkans portal, also agrees that Hungary cannot independently accelerate the European integration process of any country, including Serbia, with which it has good relations.

He told Kosovo Online that the presidency of an EU country is a technical process and that Hungary cannot create "its own agenda."

"The presiding country, in agreement with the country that previously presided and the one that will next preside, agrees on the work agenda of the council and all the legislation or policies that will be dealt with in the coming period. In this sense, Hungary does not have much power to set its own special agenda," said our interlocutor.

He noted that it can only do this with countries with which it partners in the presidency. However, even then, he added, everything depends on all member states, i.e., the heads of states and governments sitting in the EU Council.

"The Council must decide unanimously on the accelerated accession of any EU candidate country. So, I repeat, Hungary cannot independently accelerate the European integration process of any country," Todorovic Stiplija said.

Regarding the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, our interlocutors believe that Hungary, as the presiding EU country, will not play a significant role.

Subotic said that this issue is important to Hungary, and the country has a significant number of its forces as part of KFOR in Kosovo. However, he reminded that Miroslav Lajcak’s mandate was recently extended.

"Hungary's role will be limited or almost non-existent in this regard, considering that we recently learned that Miroslav Lajcak’s mandate as Borrell's delegate for the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue has been extended until the end of the year. This was not initially planned, but now we have a signal that he will be the main person to gather Kurti and Vucic to bring them to the same table and continue negotiations until the EU completes its new distribution of power," concluded Subotic.

Stiplija also noted that the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina is under the jurisdiction of the European External Action Service, headed by the Estonian Prime Minister.

"So the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, as it stands, is Kaja Kallas, along with the new mediator in the dialogue, will lead this process, and it will have nothing to do with the presiding country," he emphasized.

Ivanov assessed that the course of negotiations on the normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina will remain largely the same with the new team and that the main question is how the EU can potentially force them to respect what they have agreed upon.

"It should be noted that more than ten years have passed since the signing of the Brussels Agreement, which is still not implemented, and we still don't have the Association of Serbian Municipalities. So, it is questionable whether the EU will change anything in the coming months to persuade both sides to actually implement what they have agreed upon verbally or even signed more than ten years ago," concluded Ivanov.