Who would benefit from new elections held simultaneously with local ones?

Two days before the constitutive session of the Assembly, it remains unclear whether the Self-Determination Movement, as the party that won the most seats in the February 9 elections, has secured the 61 votes needed to elect the speaker of parliament and form a new government. Various scenarios are being considered, one of which is that Albin Kurti’s party may be playing the card of calling new elections to be held alongside the local ones. Although this would grant the "Kurti 2" government several more months in a caretaker mandate, analysts believe that bonus time would not lead to a significant shift in the political balance following another trip to the polls.

Written by: Dusica Radeka Djordjevic

Yesterday, Albin Kurti avoided answering reporters' questions about whether he had secured enough votes to form a new cabinet.

The legal deadlines for forming a government will begin only once the parliament speaker is elected, and there is no prescribed deadline for when the speaker must be proposed. Due to these "loopholes" in the procedure, all options remain open — including dragging out the formation of institutions until the time for local elections arrives.

According to Arton Demhasaj of the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo, Self-Determination is deliberately delaying the formation of new institutions with the goal of calling early parliamentary elections in the fall, simultaneously with the local ones.

This line of thinking may have been encouraged by Albin Kurti himself, who, after the certification of parliamentary election results, published a map of Kosovo municipalities showing the percentage each party won, stating: “A map that should serve us in preparation for the local elections this fall.”

The question, however, is who would benefit more from holding joint elections — Self-Determination or the opposition parties?

Political analyst Nexhmedin Spahiu says such a scenario would benefit no one.

“Most MPs elected in this round have no guarantee of being reelected if another vote is held, and people primarily defend their personal interests, then their party’s, and only after that the national interest,” Spahiu told Kosovo Online.

He points out that the chances of Albin Kurti failing to form a government now are very slim, and argues it is not in Self-Determination's interest to push for new elections at the same time as the local ones, as they would likely not win more votes than they did on February 9.

Stefan Vladisavljev, Program Coordinator at the BFPE Foundation for a Responsible Society, also told Kosovo Online that a government in a caretaker mandate led by Self-Determination would face a potential risk of performing worse in new elections.

He notes that it’s questionable how much the Kurti government could correct its perceived shortcomings in such a short period — shortcomings that contributed to a weaker result compared to the 2021 elections.

Overall, he says, the likely outcome of new elections would be a continuation of the status quo.

“Parties that were not in power and had no opportunity to prove themselves couldn’t have done anything particularly good or bad to improve their positions, while Self-Determination would still face the same challenges — particularly the disapproval of the international community due to their unconstructive approach. Criticism and pressure from the international community will continue in the coming months, as nothing has changed or improved, and their approach remains just as unconstructive,” Vladisavljev observes.

Additionally, he says, several international actors — especially the United States — are still reassessing their stance toward the Western Balkans, including toward Pristina.

“So, if another election cycle is awaited during a caretaker mandate and expectations are placed on some substantial changes, I don’t think those changes will happen, and there is a potential risk that the result will be worse than in the previous elections,” he concludes.

Zoran Savic, a contributor from the NGO Aktiv, does not rule out any possibility and says that a scenario where new elections are held together with the upcoming local ones in the fall is not unlikely.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if new elections are even called in the summer. At that time, many diaspora citizens will be in Kosovo, and we know that Self-Determination received most of its votes from the diaspora in the previous election cycle. It’s very likely that we could lose the entire year to elections,” Savic told Kosovo Online.

In his view, holding new parliamentary and local elections simultaneously would suit Self-Determination.
“They didn’t achieve the goal presented in the pre-election campaign, which was to get 500,000 votes, so they’re certainly hoping for a higher number of votes. Holding another election would suit them so they can then see how to form a coalition. Right now, Self-Determination is having great difficulty forming a coalition due to everything they said during the campaign. We’ve already seen that Abdixhiku from the LDK rejected talks with them about a coalition,” Savic emphasizes.

Still, he says it is currently impossible to predict whether Self-Determination or the opposition parties would perform better if new parliamentary elections were held together with the local ones.

“There would be a short period between the two election processes, so the numbers would likely be similar — if not identical — to those in the current elections,” Savic believes.