Will Montenegro change its stance towards Kosovo after the entry of Serbs into Spajic's government?

The entry of Serbian political parties into the reconstructed government of Montenegro could somewhat influence the official policy of Podgorica towards Kosovo. However, as assessed by interlocutors of Kosovo Online, the withdrawal of Kosovo's recognition is not a realistic option at this moment.

By Dusica Radeka Djordjevic

Last week, members of the Montenegrin Parliament supported the reconstruction of Milojko Spajic's government, which included representatives of the coalition "For the Future of Montenegro," namely the Democratic People's Party led by Milan Knezevic and New Serbian Democracy led by Andrija Mandic. This marked the first time since Montenegro declared independence in 2006 that Serbs have their representatives in the government. The reconstructed government also includes the Bosniak Party, making Spajic's cabinet now consist of seven deputy prime ministers, 25 ministries, and a minister without portfolio.

Montenegro recognized Kosovo on October 9, 2008, eight months after Kosovo unilaterally declared independence in Pristina. Diplomatic relations between Montenegro and Kosovo were established on January 15, 2010. Podgorica voted for Kosovo's entry into UNESCO in 2015 and for its admission to Interpol in 2018, although Kosovo has not yet become a member of these organizations. The current ambassador of Kosovo in Podgorica is Ariana Zerka Hoxha, while in February of this year, it was stated by the Montenegrin government that the appointment of Montenegro's ambassador to Kosovo was "in process."

The stance of Knezevic and Mandic towards Kosovo is well known. Last fall, Knezevic stated that if the condition for him to become a minister was to recognize Kosovo, he would rather go to Zeta to plant tomatoes because his honor is more important to him. Mandic went on a hunger strike in protest when Montenegro decided to recognize Kosovo.

However, the question remains how much influence the representatives of their parties, holding five positions in the executive branch, will have in adjusting Podgorica's course towards Pristina.

Bogdan Zivkovic, a research associate at the Institute of Balkan Studies in Belgrade, told Kosovo Online that the entry of representatives of Serbian political parties into the Montenegrin government will allow them to more loudly raise issues about reshaping the country's policy towards Kosovo, such as lowering the level of contacts and diplomatic relations with Kosovo, but not about withdrawing the recognition of Kosovo's independence.

According to him, given the composition of the reconstructed Montenegrin government, the influences regarding Kosovo will be contradictory.

"It is clear that the EU and the West, as well as the Albanian parties and the Bosniak Party, will push in the opposite direction. In this sense, it is difficult to make precise predictions, but it is clear that the chances for defending Serbian national interests are now much better," Zivkovic believes.

He points out that, from Belgrade's perspective, what happened in Podgorica is significant news. After a decade of isolation of the main political representatives of Serbs in Montenegro, parties representing the largest number of Serbs, namely Milan Knezevic's Democratic People's Party and Andrija Mandic's New Serbian Democracy, have finally entered the government.

He notes that even after the fall of the DPS (Democratic Party of Socialists), they could not be part of the government, although they have recently been providing minority support to the government.

"This is a step further in strengthening the presence of the Serbian element in Montenegrin politics. Of course, recent events have shown us that, although the position of Serbs is stronger, it is still very contradictory. On one hand, we saw that Montenegro voted for the Resolution on Srebrenica, but on the other hand, Serbian parties managed to push through the resolution on Jasenovac. The past years indicate that the influence of Serbian parties is stronger than before, but it is still framed and limited by many factors, primarily the strong Western influence in Montenegro, as well as the influence of the Albanian and Bosniak parties, which are now also part of the government," Zivkovic states.

Regarding whether the new Montenegrin government will likely improve relations between Podgorica and Belgrade, Zivkovic says that the election of Andrija Mandic as the president of the Montenegrin parliament has already significantly improved relations between Serbia and Montenegro. He believes that this new level of political inclusion of Serbs in Montenegro with their entry into the government will undoubtedly improve these relations. He suggests that once the political dissatisfaction of Serbs in Montenegro, which existed in previous decades due to political marginalization, disappears, both Belgrade will be more satisfied, and the dialogue will be more fruitful.

"That again does not mean that the influence of the West, which generally pulls against Serbian national interests, will be marginalized or that we cannot expect some decisions from Montenegro that will not align with Serbian national interests. However, this is certainly a significant step forward and a precedent that establishes the right of Serbian parties to be in the Montenegrin government. We see that nothing radical has changed or happened in Montenegro, and this will allow a maneuvering space in future governments and within Montenegro's political field for Serbian parties to be part of the government, without threatening Montenegro's sovereignty or dramatically changing the situation in the country. Therefore, I think this is an important precedent that is not just political for today but will have longer-term significance," says Zivkovic.

Professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences in Podgorica and President of the Board of Directors of the Center for Monitoring and Research Zlatko Vujovic assesses that, after the entry of representatives of Serbian political parties into the Government of Montenegro, it can be expected that they will try to lower the level of relations with Kosovo to a minimum and to revert them wherever possible.

If the new ruling majority remains in power for a longer period, he does not exclude the possibility of making a decision to withdraw the recognition of Kosovo.

"The current government of Montenegro, i.e., the majority dominated by pro-Serbian and pro-Russian parties, has a negative stance towards Kosovo and its independence and is not interested in good neighborly relations with Kosovo. What they will probably tactically do is to ensure that the actions of certain ministries, such as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs or European Integration, do not alarm our Western partners to avoid jeopardizing some of their interests. However, wherever they can, in the coming period, they will try to lower the level of relations with Kosovo to a minimum and to revert those relations. When it comes to the potential withdrawal of recognition, it is difficult to do at this moment due to Western pressure, but in the foreseeable future, if this ruling majority remains, I would not exclude that possibility, especially if something goes wrong with European integrations," Vujovic told Kosovo Online.

As he adds, "the carrot – that Montenegro could be in the EU by 2030 – on one hand motivates some people more, and on the other hand increases pressure from Belgrade, which is trying in every way to stop Montenegro's entry into the EU." He emphasizes that this is a complex relationship of intertwined interests and interventions, in which it is sometimes unclear what the Montenegrin government’s next move will be.

"If it happens that the prospect of European integration becomes almost non-existent, if it happens that it collapses under the pressure from Belgrade, then this ruling coalition would have no motive to maintain relations with Kosovo. Just as they adopted the Declaration on Jasenovac despite the stance of Western partners being against it, in some future moment when Mandic and Knezevic want to demonstrate loyalty to official Belgrade, we should not exclude such a decision, as it does not require a parliamentary vote but only a majority in the government, and now that majority in the government is quite different than it appeared before the reconstruction," Vujovic explains.

Historian Aleksandar Rakovic says that representatives of Serbian political parties who became part of the Government of Montenegro during its reconstruction are a minority in this government, and therefore, it should not be expected that the recognition of Kosovo will be withdrawn.

"It is excellent that Serbs have entered the Government of Montenegro, but when we look at the number of members of that government, we see that they are in the minority. Regarding the departments that Serbs have received, they will certainly not establish communication with the departments of so-called Kosovo. But when it comes to making decisions about the relations and issues between Montenegro and so-called Kosovo, Serbs will be in the minority. And that is a reality we need to accept. We need to accept that our compatriots in Montenegro will not be able to do everything we would expect, want, and like because it is not possible. There will be no withdrawal of the recognition of so-called Kosovo, as there is no majority for that in either the Assembly or the Government. The next moment will certainly be more favorable, but now, at this moment, the most important thing is that Serbs have entered the Government of Montenegro," Rakovic told Kosovo Online.

While he believes that relations between Podgorica and Belgrade will probably be somewhat softer, Rakovic emphasizes that this will depend on foreign sponsors who, as he notes, control the majority in the Government of Montenegro.

"And that majority in the government voted for the resolution on the so-called genocide in Srebrenica. They still have the majority. And they did so despite understanding that it harms the interests of the Republic of Serbia. The situation has been somewhat corrected with the Resolution on Jasenovac, but we will leave it to time to show how (Milojko) Spajic will play that game, which he does not play alone. He has conductors who are directing him," says Rakovic, who has been banned from entering Montenegro since 2018.

Although Montenegrin Prime Minister Spajic said last week that his government will last another three and a half years and achieve historic results during that period, analysts believe its longevity will also be influenced by the results of the extraordinary local elections in Podgorica scheduled for September 29.

Zlatko Vujovic points out that the reconstructed government is extremely unstable despite having two-thirds of the deputies in the Montenegrin parliament, which, as he says, sounds absurd because the number of deputies supporting the government should be the basic criterion of its stability.

"Here, however, we are dealing with very diverse political parties, both in terms of programs and identities, and there is also a huge personal distrust between the leaders of these parties. Some have made a complete turnaround. The Bosniak Party, contrary to the views of its electorate, decided to support Andrija Mandic, Becic, and Spajic in exchange for considerable benefits for its leadership. However, this has caused significant turbulence within the party, and part of its officials has already founded another party, the Bosniak Democratic Movement, raising questions about how this will affect the rating of the Bosniak Party," Vujovic says.

He also points out that the stability of the reconstructed government will be influenced by the results of the upcoming local elections in Podgorica. According to some estimates, the current ruling coalition, which has two-thirds of the deputies in the national parliament, is unlikely to achieve an absolute majority.

"I think they will fall far short of the necessary majority to form a government, and if it happens that the leader of the ruling majority, the Europe Now Movement of Mr. Milojko Spajic, experiences, as many analysts expect, a drastic drop in support in Podgorica, where they previously had around 25-26 percent, then the pressure on the government would be such that it would probably fall and new elections would be called. The least realistic scenario is that this government with this ruling majority survives. Maybe the prime minister will survive with a new reconstruction, but this ruling majority has minimal chances of survival," Vujovic believes.

Bogdan Zivkovic also believes that the longevity of the new Montenegrin government will depend on the elections in Podgorica and the results that Milojko Spajic's Europe Now Movement achieves there.

He assesses that since the fall of the DPS, Montenegro, like Serbia after October 5, 2000, is in a political interregnum or power vacuum, where there is no clear hegemon and dominant party.

"Although Milojko Spajic is now the strongest political actor, he still does not have the power to make some decisions on his own. By including the Bosniak Party in the government, he gained some points in the West and significantly expanded his ruling majority. He is slowly isolating parties that are against him in the opposition. This move has greatly strengthened him and suggests that this government might have a longer lifespan. But now the main question is the elections in Podgorica, and the longevity of this government depends on the results of the Europe Now Movement led by Milojko Spajic. If they manage to defend their result in Podgorica, their chances for a longer rule will be more stable; if there is a decline, then this government will also be threatened," Zivkovic assesses.