Surlic: Serb List could be the "tipping point" in the formation of the new Kosovo government

Assistant Professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences in Belgrade, Stefan Surlic, assessed for Kosovo Online that the Serb List could be the "tipping point" in forming the future Kosovo government, but that such a scenario is difficult to achieve because this party is unacceptable to Self-Determination, and at the same time, opposition parties could face Kurti's "cowardice game" and be targeted by the nationalist public.

"We will see in the coming days how the Democratic League of Kosovo behaves toward other parties in the opposition bloc, as they are the only ones who have not explicitly stated their position toward both the PDK and the Alliance led by Haradinaj regarding whether they would cooperate with Self-Determination," Surlic said for Kosovo Online.

As he says, if their stance becomes milder, there is room for either forming a coalition with Self-Determination or for them to remain consistent and say - we do not want to form any coalition and that elections are the solution.

"In that case, it might sound extreme, but the Serb List is actually the 'tipping point' that will determine the behavior of all other political actors in Kosovo. Depending on how the Serb List is perceived in parliament and the potential coalition in the future, we will either have a stable government in Kosovo or a 'Bulgarian scenario,'" Surlic said.

At the moment, neither Self-Determination nor the Serb List is considering forming a coalition.

"But what could be problematic is some kind of 'cowardice game,' where Self-Determination would accuse opposition parties of forming a coalition with the Serb List because, according to them, they are allies of terrorists. In this context, opposition parties could be targeted by the nationalist public and be accused of making the Serb List a 'Trojan horse' for Kosovo's statehood and a 'Trojan horse' for the stable political system. Then, opposition parties, under such nationalist pressure, might back out of forming a wider coalition and opt for elections instead," Surlic explained.

In other post-election calculations, Surlic recalls that before the elections, there was "whispering" about talks to form a future government with Self-Determination and the Democratic Party of Kosovo.

"But, that was under the condition that the PDK would be in third place. Now we have a completely different political environment. The PDK is in second place and would like to win the position of prime minister," Surlic specified.

He believes that for opposition parties, instead of a coalition with Self-Determination, forming a broader coalition would be much more appealing.

"They know that a coalition with Self-Determination would mean losing their identity, but also the absence of any levers of power. Because Self-Determination has demonstrated a kind of authoritarian and absolutist rule under the leadership of Albin Kurti," Surlic emphasizes.

He adds that the ideal solution would be a broad "anti-Kurti coalition," but that it would involve a "very complex political process" in the near future.

"The ideal solution is a broad 'anti-Kurti coalition,' but such a scenario would create the problem of making a lasting, stable coalition agreement, dividing ministries, and aligning all those negative messages that were sent toward each other in the past period. Still, a coalition of three parties plus minority communities, including the Serb List, would require a very complex political process in the coming days and months," Surlic clarified.

At the same time, he does not rule out the possibility that Albin Kurti may change his rhetoric, in which he rejected the possibility of forming any coalition to create the future government.

"Albin Kurti's argument was that he did not want a coalition with any opposition party because it would mean making some other compromises with international actors, and that would primarily involve concessions to Belgrade. That is why he demanded those imaginary 500,000 votes," Surlic reminds.

He also warns that Kurti's statements made immediately after the elections should be taken with a grain of salt and that it should not be ruled out that he will form a government with one of the three parties that received the most votes.

"Most likely with the Democratic League of Kosovo, since that is now the third option, and they have experience in coalition agreements. But any coalition would mean softening the very extreme and radical policies that Self-Determination has pursued. Therefore, if Self-Determination remains in power, it would mean concessions to the international community, to coalition partners, and above all, the improvement and normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina, which would, of course, mean a better status for the Serbian community in Kosovo," Surlic concluded.