Pavkovic: We are entering a period of political crisis; three scenarios for a new Kosovo government

Milos Pavkovic, an associate at the Center for European Policy, has assessed that Kosovo is entering a period of political crisis regarding the formation of a new government and that there are three possible scenarios to resolve the situation, emphasizing that the option of repeating the elections would be the least favorable for the Serb List.

"We are certainly entering a period of political crisis," Pavkovic told Kosovo Online.

He pointed out that, on one side, there is Self-Determination, while on the other, there are the Democratic League of Kosovo, the Democratic Party of Kosovo, and the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo, which together have more votes.

"However, Self-Determination’s coalition potential is practically zero. No Albanian party wants to form a government with them," he added.

Pavkovic outlined several options for political parties in Kosovo, including what he referred to as the "Bulgarian scenario."

"The first scenario is that Kurti manages to form a government with the deputies from non-majority communities, possibly with some defections from other Albanian parties. This would result in a 'Kurti 3' government. The second is an 'anti-Kurti coalition' – a broad alliance of all Albanian parties plus the Serb List, which would form a government, sending Kurti into opposition. However, this is highly problematic. In the history of Kosovo’s politics, the Serb List has never been the deciding factor in forming a new government. No Albanian parties have ever opted for such a step, so this scenario should be approached with caution," Pavkovic emphasized.

The third scenario is new elections.

"Under Kosovo's law, the party that wins the most votes gets the mandate to form a government and has 15 days to do so. If it fails, the second-largest party gets the mandate, and if it also fails, new elections are called," Pavkovic explained.

He notes that this is feasible because local elections are already planned for the fall, and presidential elections are scheduled for early next year.

"Parties will factor this into their calculations when forming potential coalitions. Another important aspect is that in January 2026, Kosovo will hold presidential elections, which require a two-thirds majority in parliament. Currently, no political force holds such a majority," Pavkovic said.

He believes that repeating the elections – the so-called "Bulgarian scenario" – would be the least favorable option for the Serb List and the Serbian community in Kosovo.

"Such a scenario would certainly not benefit the Serb List and the Serbian community because Kurti would remain prime minister in a caretaker government and would likely continue using his nationalist and sovereigntist approach to pressure the Serbian community, aiming to further strengthen his voter base in the next elections," Pavkovic stated.

He suggested that new elections could actually benefit Kurti.

"He would gain additional time to consolidate his electorate. However, it remains uncertain how the international community would react to new elections and the subsequent campaign. The trend suggests that Kurti is losing international support, which has now been reduced to a minimal level," the analyst noted.

For the opposition parties within the Albanian bloc, the best-case scenario would be securing support from Kosovo’s key international partners: the United States, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom.

"This could harm Kurti while helping the opposition gain more votes, putting them in a better position in repeat elections to form a government without the Serb List," Pavkovic concluded.