Persian Gulf and Ukraine: Are Russia and America reshaping the global energy structure at the negotiating table?

Written for Kosovo Online by Zeljko Sajn

The war over Iran began with the nuclear issue, but as it unfolded, it opened up a much broader question: who will set the rules in the future for energy, freedom of navigation, and the security of the areas on which the global economy depends.

The Persian Gulf, and the Strait of Hormuz in particular, has therefore become much more than a question concerning a single strait. Disruptions to shipping through Hormuz have already had a serious impact on global energy flows, while the Gulf states are accelerating investments in alternative pipelines, ports, and other export routes in order to reduce their dependence on this strategic passage.

The question of Hormuz can therefore no longer be viewed solely as an issue concerning relations between Iran and the United States. It is becoming a question of who will determine the rules governing the movement of energy around the world and who will guarantee the security of strategic energy routes.

A similar logic applies to Ukraine. The future of the war, relations between Russia and Europe, energy infrastructure, and the supply of the European market will be interconnected. In the discussions surrounding Ukraine, the energy issue has already had its place, including earlier talks between American and Russian officials about possible energy arrangements.

Thus, the Persian Gulf and Ukraine emerge as two different but interconnected points in the same process. One determines an important energy outlet from the Persian Gulf to the global market, while the other is part of Europe's future energy landscape.

If bilateral talks between Russia and America expand their agenda from the immediate resolution of conflicts to long-term security and energy issues, their political significance could become much greater. Current contacts between Washington and Moscow show that a channel of communication still exists, while possibilities for continuing talks on Ukraine are being explored at the same time.

Russia and America would then not be discussing only the end of individual wars, but also the rules that will determine relations among major centers of power and future energy flows.

This would not be a return to Yalta in 1945. The world is different today. China, India, the European Union, Iran, and the states of the Persian Gulf have their own interests and growing influence. Therefore, the future global energy structure cannot be determined by an agreement between just two countries.

But Russia and America could be among the most important interlocutors at the table where its reshaping is discussed.

The United Nations have a particularly important role in this process. Their role should not be to determine who will receive the largest share of the energy market, but to provide an international legal framework for rules that would apply to everyone: freedom of navigation, the security of energy corridors, infrastructure protection, and equal relations among states.

Hormuz could therefore become much more than an issue related to a single war. If its status is addressed together with broader questions of energy, trade, and security, it could become one of the first points at which the new global energy structure becomes visible. Iran and Oman are already discussing a special navigation regime through Hormuz, showing that new practical solutions are being sought for passage through this strategic area.

At the same time, Ukraine could become the second major point in this reshaping, on the European energy landscape.

Therefore, the fundamental question is no longer simply who will control Hormuz or what the outcome of the war in Ukraine will be. The question is who will define the future rules of global energy at the negotiating table.

In this process, Russia and America can be two significant interlocutors, but not the only ones. Their bilateral talks could create space for a broader agreement with other centers of power. The United Nations should remain the key legal framework, while the transformation of the international system should take place evolutionarily, through agreement, new international norms, and the gradual adaptation of the order to the realities of the 21st century.

The Persian Gulf and Ukraine could therefore become two major energy points where it will become clear whether the world is truly entering a new phase: from an order shaped in 1945 toward a multipolar system in which new rules will not be imposed by force, but negotiated at a broader international table.