Somaliland - Secession in the Horn of Africa

Writing for Kosovo Online: Dragan Bisenic

Many are focused on Houthi attacks on ships and tankers in the Red Sea, but they are not the only force breaking through toward the Red Sea coast. Ethiopia has just made a move that could destabilize the already unstable Horn of Africa, and it revolves around a country that, on paper, does not exist: Somaliland.

On January 1st, Ethiopia announced that it would recognize Somaliland as a state and give its government a stake in Ethiopian Airlines. In return, Somaliland would give Ethiopia control over 20 kilometers of its coastline to develop a naval base.

Ethiopia is emerging from an intense and bloody two-year war within its borders, along with ongoing conflicts among various ethnic groups. As a result of the violence, Ethiopia is currently experiencing mass internal displacement and famine.

The geopolitical tensions created by the pact with Somaliland could serve to exacerbate Ethiopia's problems—and issues in the region. But despite the risks, both sides know they have a lot to gain.

Somaliland, officially the Republic of Somaliland, is an unrecognized state in the Horn of Africa, internationally recognized as a de jure part of Somalia. It is located on the southern coast of the Gulf of Aden and borders Djibouti to the northwest, Ethiopia to the south and west, and Somalia to the east. The claimed territory has an area of 176,120 square kilometers, with approximately 5.7 million inhabitants. The capital and largest city is Hargeisa. The Government of Somaliland considers itself the successor state of British Somaliland, which, as the briefly independent State of Somaliland, united from 1960 to 1991 with the Trust Territory of Somaliland (formerly Italian Somaliland) to form the Republic of Somalia.

Since 1991, the territory has been governed by democratically elected governments seeking international recognition as the Government of the Republic of Somaliland. The central government maintains informal relations with some foreign governments, which have sent delegations to Hargeisa. Taiwan currently recognizes Somaliland, and there are representations of several other countries, notably Ethiopia. However, Somaliland's self-proclaimed independence has not been officially recognized by any UN member state or international organization. It is the largest unrecognized state in the world by de facto controlled territory. It is a member of the Unrepresented Nations and Peoples Organization, an advocacy group whose members include indigenous peoples, minorities, and unrecognized or occupied territories.

Somaliland is located on the southern coast of the Gulf of Aden. Though nominally a part of Somalia, declared independence in 1991. In the same year, the independence was recognized by numerous Eastern European states and former Yugoslav republics, but not by Somaliland. Somaliland largely controls its borders and has a healthier democratic tradition than some of its neighbors. Its military, although small, has protected the country from threats such as piracy and the terrorist group al-Shabaab. The only thing preventing it from being an official state is international legitimacy. Apart from Taiwan, no state recognizes Somaliland's independence. Ethiopia's declaration could change this. Recognizing a new state under international law requires established states to acknowledge the sovereignty and legitimacy of the territory. This can be achieved through explicit or implicit means.

Direct recognition takes the form of an official unambiguous statement. In contrast, implicit recognition can occur through bilateral agreements, alliances, or diplomatic exchanges—essentially signaling acceptance without issuing an official declaration of recognition. Implicit recognition often provides a strategic advantage, protecting a country's interests without causing regional disagreements.

Mastering the skill of crafting contracts with implicit recognitions can be crucial to avoiding excessive diplomatic commitments for a country. The international community expected Abiy, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, to manage this diplomatic tightrope, balancing the level of recognition for Somaliland with restraint. This could avoid a rupture in relations with Somalia and jeopardizing regional security dynamics.

The specific details of the Memorandum of Understanding remain undisclosed. So far, all insights largely come from a joint press conference held by the leaders of Ethiopia and Somaliland in Addis Ababa and subsequent public statements.

Nuanced differences in priorities have emerged: Somaliland emphasizes explicit recognition, while Ethiopia directs its focus toward regional integration.

Some significant differences in the exchange of messages are also apparent. Both sides highlight economic and security benefits. However, Ethiopia's statement on January 3rd only suggests a "deep assessment" of the demand for state recognition. This seems at odds with Somaliland's claim of guaranteed recognition in exchange for access to the sea.

However, since the actual text of the agreement is not publicly available, its implications remain shrouded in secrecy, further adding to the discomfort in the region due to the agreement.

Somalia is furious. Its government sees both the recognition of Somaliland and the construction of a naval base as a violation of its sovereignty.

"As a government", tweeted Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud the next day, "we condemned and rejected Ethiopia's unlawful violation of our national sovereignty and territorial integrity yesterday. Not an inch of Somalia can or will be taken away by anyone. Somalia belongs to the Somali people. This is final".

However, Somalia can do little about this. Ethiopia has thousands of soldiers stationed in Somalia, assisting the government in the fight against Al-Shabaab, which controls large parts of the country.

The Horn of Africa has witnessed invasions, civil wars, uprisings, and coups starting from the smallest catalyst. Why is Ethiopia willing to rock the boat? And where will this lead?

Ethiopia became landlocked in the 1990s after Eritrea declared independence and took all of Ethiopia's Red Sea coastline. Since becoming the Prime Minister of Ethiopia in 2018, Abiy Ahmed has sought to regain access to the sea. In 2018, he made a similar deal with Eritrea, where Eritrea allowed Ethiopia influence in its ports in exchange for reestablishing diplomatic relations.

Relations between Eritrea and Ethiopia have deteriorated since then. Eritrea assisted Ahmed in fighting against Tigrayan rebels in a major civil war that concluded in 2022. Despite the war being over and the Tigray region relatively stable, Eritrean troops will not leave Ethiopian soil. Some analysts think that Ethiopia might soon engage in war with Eritrea.

Ethiopia has around 120 million people, the second-most populous country in Africa. The civil war has hit the country hard, and trade connections are needed to aid recovery. The underlying reasons that sparked the Tigray uprising persist, making a continuation of hostilities a very real possibility. Some estimate that the war has claimed up to 600,000 lives, making it one of the deadliest conflicts of this century. Ahmed has managed to sustain the war effort, in part, by purchasing foreign weapons. Perhaps he desperately wants to secure a maritime lifeline.

An agreement with Somaliland could indicate that Ahmed sees no chance of reconciliation with Eritrea, has abandoned hope of access to the Eritrean Red Sea coast, and that a war with Eritrea is ongoing.

Considering Ethiopia's delicate situation with domestic secessionist forces, critics quickly noted that Ethiopia might not be in the best position to entertain the idea of recognizing Somaliland. Not only would it risk conflict with Somalia, but it could also lead to renewed demands and secessionist movements within Ethiopia itself.

In any case, a lot of instability is expected in the Horn of Africa. Such a crisis affecting the Horn of Africa is unsettling. The region is home to over 100 million people who have gone through extremely difficult times. Global attention towards growing tensions in the Horn of Africa is increasing: the US has expressed serious concerns, and the African Union has called on Ethiopia and Somalia to de-escalate tensions in the name of regional peace. Similar statements have come from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development - an African trade bloc - the European Union, and the Arab League.

Further escalation in the Red Sea could draw the Horn of Africa into confrontations with the danger of leading to total chaos. Recognition of Somaliland could contribute to this.