Taiwan - Continuation of flirting with separatism

Writing for Kosovo Online: Dragan Bisenic

In the just-concluded presidential elections in Taiwan, the new President is the former Vice President, Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), a party that advocates Taiwan's separate identity and rejects territorial claims from China. China rightly views the 'progressives' as inclined towards flirting with separatism, as the party has repeatedly announced its intention to formally adopt an 'independence act' in parliament. However, in the parliamentary elections, the DPP lost the majority, which shifted to the Kuomintang party, along with a new third factor in Taiwanese politics, giving them the majority in the 113-member parliament. As a result, the declaration of independence is almost entirely ruled out. Although the advocates of separatism won the presidential elections, they lost legislative control, making the outcome a setback for the supporters of independence, even though the pro-reunification side did not achieve complete success.

Nevertheless, Taiwan remains one of the most volatile points on the planet. The decision, whether towards final separation or reunification, will decisively change the political and economic situation in East Asia, and the Pacific region, and will also impact the global situation as a whole. It is challenging to imagine the cataclysms that might occur in Taiwan.

In the initial reaction to the election results, Beijing emphasized that 'reunification is inevitable', and the vote will not change that, while the new president, on his part, said he would defend the island from threats from mainland China, promising to maintain the status quo in the Beijing-Taipei relationship. From the Chinese perspective, he has been repeatedly labeled as a separatist who might resort to formally declaring the island's independence. In response to the election results, US President Biden stated that the US did not support Taiwan's independence in any way. However, the US announced sending an official delegation to Taiwan next week, which was met with anger in Beijing. In any case, any separatism in Taiwan remains unacceptable for China, sharing the same fate as other precedents, with Kosovo being the most striking. China strongly supports Serbia's territorial integrity, just as Serbia supports a unified China.

The examples of Kosovo and Taiwan are similar in some respects, but significantly different in others. They both are partially recognized entities. Those who recognize Kosovo unofficially support Taiwanese aspirations for independence because it is impossible to maintain political relations with both China and Taiwan simultaneously. China has just severed diplomatic ties with Lithuania because Vilnius recognized Taiwan. Therefore, insistence on Kosovo's independence is considered an ideological foundation that provides Taiwan with grounds to declare its own independence. All unrecognized or partially recognized states in the world share a common trait - the emergence of new political entities was preceded by military conflicts, with one of the causes being a national question; Taiwan is different.

Taiwan, as a partially recognized state, that is currently on the path to separate existence from continental China, does not have a national question at the core of its separatism. Thus, the example of Taiwanese separatism is unique. Forming itself as an internationally recognized government of China in exile, after half a century of separate existence from the 'mainland', Taiwan's Government has lost international recognition and abandoned the policy of one China, turning, in essence, from the losing side of the civil war into separatists defending the idea of their independence.

China has repeatedly stated that as soon as Taiwan declares secession, war begins on the same day. China and the Republic of China on the island of Taiwan are ready for this. But it is clear to everyone that China would quickly defeat the Taiwanese military and restore the territorial integrity of its state, finally overcoming the 'century of national humiliation' when China was under the control of Western colonial administrations.

China has enough weight in the global economy to withstand the pressure of sanctions. Studying the current experience of Russia and cultivating a strategic alliance with it, China is already preparing for it, as well as preventing, if necessary, the free economic maritime activities of Western countries in Southeast Asia. In other words, China is preparing, if necessary, to isolate Asia from the United States.

The question of Taiwan's independence began to be raised in the official domestic political arena relatively recently. The promoter of the idea of independence is the so-called 'green coalition', led by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) formed in 1986. The DPP is the main political opponent of the Kuomintang (KMT), with which it periodically alternates in positions of power. The KMT leads the 'blue coalition', which adheres to the idea of 'One China'.

Where do the roots of the idea of independence come from? If we go back in history, Taiwan became a Chinese territory relatively late. The indigenous population of the island was not Han Chinese at all but tribes belonging to the Austronesian language family. The first administration on the island was Dutch - for about 40 years, Formosa was under the control of the Dutch East India Company. Interestingly, the Chinese population under the Dutch significantly increased – this is another illustration of the fact that the Chinese are most willing to settle in areas where there is organized economic life (similar examples are Singapore and the Chinese Eastern Railway). The island province owes its transfer under Chinese control to Koxinga (real name Zheng Chenggong). As was often the case in ancient times, he was a subject of dubious origin, a 'fighter for the people's happiness' (fighting against the Manchu Qing dynasty), a bandit (trading with pirates), and a statesman – all combined into one. Koxinga's military strength was not enough to resist the Manchu troops on the mainland, but it was more than enough to survive the Dutch on Formosa.

In the late 19th century, Taiwan was annexed by Japan as a result of the 1894-95 war and remained a Japanese colony until August 1945. During these fifty years, colonial authorities pursued a consistent policy of Japanization of the island: education and office work were conducted in the Japanese language, and the population was forced to change their names to Japanese. At the same time, the local population did not experience any economic difficulties and, unlike Japanese-occupied areas of continental China, was not subjected to repression.

Unlike the peaceful existence under the Japanese, the transition to the rule of the Republic of China was seen as a clear and unjustified 'tightening of screws'. The conflict with the 'continental' state authority resulted in a rebellion of smugglers in February 1947. The Kuomintang administration, which was engaged in a fierce civil war with the communists on the mainland, did not hesitate to choose its methods in this case either. The rebellion was brutally suppressed. Currently, through the efforts of the 'greens', these events are commemorated on February 28 and remembered as a national tragedy.

After the defeat on the mainland, the Kuomintang Government evacuated to Taiwan. The Republic of China shrank to the size of an island province. Nevertheless, for a long time, many states considered this administration the legitimate government in China. (China's seat in the UN and the UN Security Council was transferred to the People's Republic of China only in 1971).

The islanders, accustomed to a peaceful provincial existence, suddenly found themselves in the midst of great politics. However, visitors from the mainland took the places at this 'celebration of life'. The state was actually a one-party dictatorship, and only those who had significant weight in the structure of the Kuomintang could apply for a significant position in the government. It is clear that local residents who had lived under Japanese jurisdiction for decades could not have any party experience. Thus, they turned into a politically vulnerable population.

In an effort to create a mood in favor of secession at any cost, the 'greens' began to intensively connect with aboriginal territories. Claims were made that the culture of these small nations allegedly has enormous value and is much more important for Taiwan than Chinese culture.

Attacks on Chinese culture have also occurred along linguistic lines. For example, the 'slight change' of the Chinese language began with efforts to encourage the use of dialects (Min and Hakka) at the expense of the normative 'Guoyu', which essentially coincides with the continental norm of 'Mandarin'.

Therefore, the idea of separating Taiwan from China is largely supported by the indigenous inhabitants of the island (Han Chinese, whose ancestors arrived in Taiwan before Japanese occupation, and the natives who are not of Han origin). Due to objective historical reasons, their Chinese self-identification is quite blurred, and subjectively, there is a desire for revenge for the political injustice during the Kuomintang dictatorship. Otherwise, Hong Kong differs much more sharply from the mainland than Taiwan, however, its reunification with China has already been realized.

Despite the mantras of the 'unique Taiwanese nation', the reality is relentless: 98 percent of Taiwan's population is Chinese. They speak Chinese, behave in a Chinese manner, and live the Chinese way of life. There are no insurmountable psychological barriers between mainland Chinese and Taiwanese.

The economic ties of the island with mainland China are greater than with any other country in the world. The state based in Taiwan is called the Republic of China. It considers itself the legitimate authority throughout China. From this, it follows that the declaration of Taiwan's independence (which is legally a province of the ROC, i.e., part of Greater China) automatically signifies a coup in favor of separatists.

A colossal external factor is the extremely negative stance of the PRC towards the proposed independence. The fact is that the issue of the country's unity is an extremely sensitive matter for the Chinese nation. The real subjugation of China by foreign powers, starting from the Opium Wars, has always been accompanied by the loss of sovereignty over parts of its territory: Hong Kong, the Kwantung Peninsula, Taiwan, Qingdao, and Manchukuo. And until territorial unity is restored, national humiliation cannot be considered completely overcome. Despite the fact that Dr. Sun Yat-sen's idea - the Republic of China - continues to live in Taiwan, the teachings of the 'father of the nation' on nationalism are much more accepted on the mainland.

The authorities of the PRC will not leave the act of separatism without consequences. The PRC has officially stated multiple times that if Taiwan declares independence, it will resort to military measures. On the one hand, Taiwan could be taken as a result of a large-scale landing operation, for which currently only one country in the world is capable, and this country (the USA) is on Taiwan's side. On the other hand, mainland China is fully capable of turning Taiwan into an uninhabitable rock. No one can guarantee that the PRC will not use military force in this way, even at the cost of conflict with the USA. This is well understood in Taiwan.