Telegraph's story is potentially harmful by engaging in fearmongering

Written for Kosovo Online by Helena Ivanov, associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Research Center

Kosovo is once again in the spotlight - not because of conflict or violence but due to a viral article from the Telegraph. Dressed in full combat gear, the UK’s paper’s Defence Editor asks whether Kosovo could be the next Ukraine, and whether “Serbia’s president Aleksandar Vucic is planning an invasion aided by his ally Vladimir Putin.”

Upon reading the story and watching the accompanying video, one might fear that Europe could be on the brink of another conflict. But a closer examination - which the Telegraph story wholly fails to provide - reveals that the likelihood of Kosovo war similar to Ukraine in Kosovo is really very low.

First and foremost, the ongoing presence of Kosovo Force (KFOR), the NATO-led peacekeeping force in Kosovo, continues to serve as the guarantor of peace. Neither Kosovo nor Serbia are likely to invade the other, as such an action would effectively mean engaging in open conflict with NATO. Moreover, even if either side were to risk such an engagement, the presence of NATO troops would quickly put a stop to any attack. As long as KFOR remains in Kosovo, a Ukraine-like situation is effectively impossible.

However, stating that a Ukraine-like scenario is impossible does not mean that the situation in Kosovo is stable or favourable. Over the past few years, Kosovo has faced several periods of escalating tensions, largely stemming from stalled EU-mediated normalization talks. These negotiations can be characterized by a one-step-forward, two-steps-back pattern, where both parties frequently do not honour previously agreed-upon terms. Attempts at implementing agreements often result in heightened tensions on the ground – such as escalations pertaining to car registration plates. For as long as these breakdowns in talks and implementation remain, the situation in Kosovo will remain somewhat unstable.

Considering the context, the Telegraph's story is not only inaccurate but also potentially harmful by engaging in fearmongering. According to the Telegraph's own sources, people in Kosovo already face challenges in living together peacefully, with each round of escalation exacerbating the situation on the ground. It is unclear why the Telegraph chose to amplify these issues and contribute to the existing tensions by suggesting that a Ukraine-like scenario is a genuine possibility.

If the Telegraph's team wanted to cover the story and bring the region to everyone’s attention, there were many other aspects they could have explored. Given the infrequent attention the Balkans receive, any focus on the region should be handled with care and depth, and in a balanced manner.

However, credit should be given where it is due. According to the responses on Twitter, the Telegraph team has achieved something rare in the region: uniting many Serbs, Kosovars and Western experts in their criticism of the story.