Xi–Trump meeting marks another step toward a trilateral balance of power

Written by Zeljko Sajn, for Kosovo Online

“In a world without a balance of power, peace does not reign—uncertainty does; peace is not a natural state, but the result of efforts by those who preserve it,” warned Richard Nixon, accurately describing the logic of geopolitical order.

Today, the world stands at a turning point—the collapse of an unsustainable international system and the creation of a new multipolar world. The meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, held on the sidelines of the APEC summit in South Korea, represents yet another step toward the already charted course of building a new architecture of power, in which global politics will no longer operate under the pattern of a single force setting the rules.

Instead, what is emerging is a trilateral balance of power: Russia and China, forming the Eurasian core that has been systematically building a strategic alliance for two decades, and the United States, which is returning to the new order not as a hegemon but as a stakeholder ready for compromise.

APEC brings together leaders of 21 member economies and senior regional officials, with the goal of strengthening cooperation, agreeing on priorities, and “shaping the region’s future.” The expected outcome is a declaration reaffirming commitment to responsible innovation, green growth, and the digital economy—while emphasizing APEC’s role in global economic planning.

However, behind this visible economic agenda lies an invisible geopolitical drama: the Xi–Trump meeting opens the door to a new security architecture founded not on sanctions and blocs, but on the balance of spheres of interest. Symbolically, the recent lifting of sanctions on Milorad Dodik, Zeljka Cvijanovic, and 48 other individuals sheds light on this shift—it could signal the beginning of a process toward global détente, paving the way for the easing of sanctions on Russia and, consequently, for Serbia concerning Russian companies.

This development also begins to lift the veil from the 2018 statement by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who warned in an interview with Politika that the world was facing “the most complex and unpredictable security situation” in decades, citing Russia, the Middle East, and North Korea as key challenges. Later acknowledgments that the Minsk Agreements were merely a prelude to preparing Ukraine for war against Russia confirmed the absence of genuine European will for dialogue. The Biden administration then intensified sanctions and military-political support for Kyiv, drawing the United States into its most dangerous confrontation since the Cuban Missile Crisis and raising questions about the sustainability of a model based on economic punishment and military escalation.

In contrast to hegemony, hypocrisy, and neo-colonial measures, Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2024 presented an initiative for a Eurasian security architecture based on the principle that regional issues should primarily be decided by regional powers. “From Murmansk to New Delhi, from Lisbon to Beijing and Jakarta,” explained Alexey Drobinin, Director of the Department for Foreign Policy Planning at the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in an interview with Politika.

This framework, open even to NATO and EU members—provided they renounce confrontational policies—is envisioned to operate through existing platforms: the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), BRICS, the CIS, CICA, ASEAN, and the GCC. It aligns with Xi Jinping’s doctrine of a “community with a shared future for humankind,” which emphasizes sovereignty, territorial integrity, non-interference, and development without conditionality.

Over the past two decades, China and Russia have built the most comprehensive strategic partnership of the modern era—spanning energy, logistics, science and technology, and financial systems beyond the dollar’s monopoly, alongside security consultations at the highest level. The common denominator is clear: no hegemonism, no economic coercion, but a balance of power and negotiated solutions to conflicts. This axis is now a political reality, not a declaration.

As Russian analyst Sergei Stankovic observed for Politika, Trump’s return to the presidency represents not merely a change of administration but a tectonic shift—from the doctrine of hegemony to a realist acknowledgment of a trilateral world. The earlier Putin–Trump meeting in Alaska signaled mutual understanding: the U.S. maintains dominant influence in Europe, while Russia holds preeminence in the Eurasian sphere—not exclusively, but predominantly—requiring disputes to be settled through dialogue. This model differs sharply from the Eurocentric perception of security that has prevailed for decades. Europe, increasingly driven by a wartime logic, is losing its capacity to act as an independent decision-maker.

The Trump–Xi meeting in Gyeongju follows this same trajectory: the U.S. is no longer in a position to dictate terms, but it can stabilize its role within a negotiated order. That order does not exclude American interests—on the contrary, it legitimizes them within a trilateral balance centered around the established Sino-Russian core.

The logical next step is a Putin–Trump meeting, followed by a trilateral summit of Trump, Putin, and Xi—a defining event in the reorganization of the global order. In this new configuration, Europe appears as a bystander: tied to bloc logic and sanctions, dependent on external energy and security structures, and lacking autonomous agency at the table where the rules of the new order are being written.

The meeting in Gyeongju will not remain a mere bilateral encounter but will likely serve as an introduction to a new era of geopolitics whose foundations have already been agreed upon. Xi and Trump enter the dialogue with the unavoidable presence of Russia as an equal pillar. Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency marks the end of the unipolar dream and the beginning of trilateral realism.

It is evident that no benefit could separate Xi from the strategic partnership with Putin, cultivated for two decades, nor is there pressure that could make Moscow abandon its Eurasian platform. Equally unlikely is a European “geopolitical awakening” capable of altering the course of events. Thus, Russia and the United States are emerging as co-architects of a New World Order, with China as the stabilizing pillar maintaining equilibrium between the two powers.