Andric Rakic: Self-Determination likely to win elections again, but with reduced support

Milica Andric Rakic, Programme Manager at the NGO “New Social Initiative,” says she expects Self-Determination to win the elections again, but, as she assesses in a statement to Kosovo Online, with a lower percentage of the vote than in December. According to her, there are several reasons why Self-Determination could receive fewer votes this time, which is why the opposition is seeking another opportunity at the polls.

“Although the elections will be held close to the summer period, the same proportion of the diaspora will not be present as during the New Year holidays, when people tend to concentrate around that specific date, whereas in summer such visits are more spread out. In addition, fuel prices are higher, and airline ticket prices are likely to increase, meaning it will be significantly more expensive for the diaspora to travel solely for the elections. It can be expected that this will be reflected in Self-Determination’s result to some extent. It is difficult at this stage to quantify by how much, but it could certainly be significant,” Andric Rakic noted.

She added that if Vjosa Osmani were to openly side with the opposition, that is, appear on the list of the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK), it could help the party regain voters it has lost over the years.

“Of course, this would again affect the balance of power between Self-Determination and the LDK. The election results should be somewhat different this time. It is currently unclear how the public perceives this new round of elections—namely, where they place responsibility and who might potentially be penalized—but this too could be one of the factors influencing the final distribution of votes,” our interlocutor emphasized.

She assesses that the Kosovo opposition believed it had nothing to lose by calling these elections.

“They likely calculate that they cannot perform worse than they did in December. Had they conceded and allowed Self-Determination to also select the president, thereby taking control of all three institutions, it would have meant that the opposition could fare even worse in future elections and that, if there were any authoritarian tendencies, these could be more easily realized. I assume they weighed their options and concluded that it was better to test themselves once more in elections and, to some extent, curb Self-Determination’s power. They are probably hoping that Self-Determination will achieve a somewhat weaker result than in December,” Andric Rakic concluded.