Atanasovski: Our region would be first affected if a new migrant wave occurs

Blagojce Atanasovski, a political analyst from Skopje, told Kosovo Online that in the coming weeks it will become clear whether the situation in the Middle East will escalate into a serious conflict or whether a resolution will be reached quickly. However, he emphasized that our region remains at a relatively safe distance — de facto — from the events unfolding between Iran and Israel, making direct involvement in the conflict unlikely. What could affect the region, he warns, is a potential new wave of migrants.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced that a ceasefire agreement had been reached and that the war between Israel and Iran was over, though both sides continued launching rockets afterward.

“We are part of a Western military-political alliance such as NATO, and from that perspective, I think we are safe. But if a new migrant wave emerges, our region would be the first to be hit, just as it was during the wave of migrants from Syria and Afghanistan,” Atanasovski said.

For such a new refugee wave to occur, he noted, a broader, more intense, and long-lasting military conflict would be required — something on the scale of the civil war in Syria.

“If the war between Israel and Iran lasts for several years, there will definitely be a new wave of refugees. We’re already seeing mass evacuations from Iran to neighboring countries, but it’s still too early to make predictions. We’ll see in the coming weeks or during the summer whether this conflict will intensify to the maximum or whether a more acceptable diplomatic solution will be found, at least temporarily,” he stated.

If there are economic consequences from the Middle East crisis that affect the global economy, he added, they would especially hit our region, which is relatively poor. He highlighted the potential for a rise in oil prices, followed by inflation — similar to what happened three years ago after the start of Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine.

“So far, we’ve seen conflicts between Israel and Gaza, and Israel and the Palestinians on one side, and on the other, the involvement of groups like Hezbollah from southern Lebanon. But this particular missile exchange between Israel and Iran — the two most militarily powerful states in the Middle East — along with the U.S. military intervention in Iran, definitely casts a new light that could further destabilize an already fragile Middle East region,” Atanasovski noted.

Regarding Albania, which has had strained relations with Iran for some time, Atanasovski said that the country currently remains diplomatically neutral.

“Albania has always been considered one of the strongest and most stable U.S. foreign policy and security partners, while Israel is known as the U.S.’s most loyal and powerful ally in foreign policy,” he said.

“For now, I believe Albania is acting tactically — avoiding involvement, whether logistical, diplomatic, or military — so as not to invite additional harm or expose itself to hybrid threats that could jeopardize the safety of Albania or its citizens. Iran is too powerful, both militarily and diplomatically, and could harm Albania through hybrid attacks. And in the context of Albania negotiating its EU accession, it would be unwise to allow a deterioration of its security situation by becoming directly or indirectly involved in the Israel-Iran conflict,” Atanasovski concluded.