Raseta: Certain economic consequences due to the Israel-Iran conflict are possible

Dragoslav Raseta from the organization New Third Way stated for Kosovo Online that the Israel-Iran conflict could cause certain economic consequences if the Iranian parliament’s recommendation to close the strait through which one-fifth of the world’s oil passes is accepted. However, he points out that neither Europe nor the US is significantly dependent on those oil supplies.

US President Donald Trump announced this morning that Iran and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire. Raseta notes that the US had a measured response in Iran beforehand, targeting three underground nuclear facilities.

“If that goal has been achieved, I don’t believe we will see further American involvement, so we can’t talk about a war in terms of major casualties or significant political consequences. There could certainly be some economic repercussions because we have seen that the Iranian parliament decided to close the Strait of Hormuz. About one-fifth of the world’s oil passes through this strait, but almost 80 percent or more of that oil goes to India and China, so neither Europe nor the US is heavily dependent on it,” Raseta said.

He adds that Iran produces about 3–4% of the world’s oil, most of which is for domestic use, with about one-third intended for export.

“If we look at the current oil market, there is less demand than supply. So I don’t believe it will significantly affect fossil fuel prices, but I would remain cautious until we see whether the Americans will become more deeply involved, or if this was perhaps just a tactic to force Iran back into compromise on nuclear negotiations,” Raseta said.

Taking into account that Albania has been targeted by Iranian hacker groups for years, and in recent days has also received threats on social media, Raseta points out that it has been nearly a decade since Albania’s relations with Iran entered a steadily deteriorating phase, seemingly without end.

He adds that since the first hacker attacks, NATO has significantly helped Albania confront Iranian cyber threats, which have since become less dangerous than in the early waves, when government institutions and organizations were mainly targeted and significant damage could have been inflicted on the functioning of the Albanian state itself.

“Since then, we have seen Albania firmly align itself not only with the US but also with Israel, if we remember the Israeli president’s tour of the Western Balkans, during which he visited only two capitals: Tirana and Belgrade, marked as Israel’s main allies in the region. But when we look at the current state of Iran and the Ayatollah’s regime, I don’t believe they have the capacity to carry out cyberattacks on Albania, especially given that they no longer even control their own airspace, and that the military and state leadership is practically decapitated. I think the Ayatollah will be more concerned about staying in power and keeping his head than about what to do with the Western Balkans for supporting Israel,” Raseta said.