Curcic: Germany will strive to maintain its role as a mediator in dialogue even with the new government

Researcher at the Institute for European Studies in Belgrade, Petar Curcic, stated for Kosovo Online that in tomorrow’s federal elections in Germany, a victory for the Christian Democratic Union is expected. The party will most likely form a government either with the Social Democrats or the Greens. He added that Germany, even after these elections, will remain traditionally interested in the entire Southeastern European region, including relations between Belgrade and Pristina.

"It seems to me that this will be a continuation of the policy we have seen before, during the tenure of Chancellor Merkel and later Chancellor Scholz. Therefore, Germany will seek to maintain its role as one of the mediators in the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, even as it has for decades supported Pristina’s interests," Curcic noted.

According to him, differences may arise in the methods used to achieve certain political goals, as the "game has become much more complex" due to the specific policies currently pursued by the US, which is increasingly focused on conflict with China. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine is entering a completely new phase – diplomatic, military, and economic.

"In this major equation, all these factors must be taken into account so that Germany itself can align its interests in this region. Let’s not forget that Germany has strategic economic interests here. Their goal is certainly not to have this region become conflict-ridden and problematic, especially given its immediate proximity to the European Union. So, I believe that Germany’s primary objective will remain ensuring that the Western Balkans remains as stable as possible in relation to the rest of the increasingly complex world," Curcic explained.

Although the Alternative for Germany (AfD), known for opposing Kosovo’s independence, is expected to achieve its best electoral result so far, Curcic believes that even in a hypothetical scenario where AfD participated in the future government – with support from some US Republican politicians, such as Vice President J.D. Vance and also Elon Musk – this would not fundamentally change Germany’s stance on Kosovo.

"AfD represents an alternative political current in Germany, but in these elections, centrist parties, whether center-left or center-right, such as the Christian Democrats, Social Democrats, Greens, and Liberals, are expected to secure between 70 and 75 percent of the vote. These parties are strongly pro-European and advocate for the established patterns of German policy, which include the resolution of the Kosovo issue as Germany supported it – with Kosovo’s unilateral secession in 2008. Alternatives exist, but we have already seen an example in Austria: when the Freedom Party was in power for a few years under Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, Austria did not change its foreign policy toward Kosovo," he explained.

Additionally, Curcic noted that another political option exists in German politics that has consistently supported Serbia’s interests since 1999 – the Left party, which is expected to achieve a small electoral surprise by performing better than in the previous elections.

"We will see how everything unfolds, but fundamentally, I do not expect Germany’s policy toward this region to change, regardless of which party comes to power," Curcic concluded.