Igrutinovic: The new “Iron Curtain” on the Dnieper is the West’s “locked-in policy”

Milan Igrutinovic, a research fellow at the Institute for European Studies, says that the end of the war in Ukraine will not bring about a “wave” of resolutions to other unresolved global issues, including Kosovo, because the key priority for the US and EU is curbing Russia’s influence in European politics.

“From the perspective of the war in Ukraine, what will unfold in the coming years, and what is essentially a ‘locked-in policy,’ is the exclusion of Russia from European politics. That dividing line, the new so-called ‘Iron Curtain,’ is now somewhere along the Dnieper. We know who the new NATO members are, and both Europe and America are working to suppress all those Russian ‘pockets’ of influence in various ways,” Igrutinovic told Kosovo Online.

He warns that this approach will also shape future policy toward the Kosovo issue.

“If they perceive that Russia’s role in Serbia and in relation to the Kosovo issue is too large, intolerable, and disruptive, they may adopt the logic of ‘we have to resolve this problem’ in order to limit Russian influence. And that has been the American logic for 15 years now, regardless of the administration,” Igrutinovic believes.

He explains that official Washington has never been particularly bothered by Serbia’s refusal to recognize Kosovo, but rather by the potential for “malign Russian influence” on Serbia’s official stance.

“They weren’t so troubled by Serbia’s opposition, which they understood as something normatively grounded and entirely legitimate. What troubled them more was Russia’s role and Serbia’s reliance on Russia on this issue – that so-called ‘malign Russian influence.’ If anything pushes them to resolve outstanding issues in a broader sweep, it will stem from their perception of Russia’s role, not from the specific local characteristics of each individual dispute. That is a lesson for us, to be very cautious in how we position ourselves on this issue so that, because of great power conflicts, we don’t ruin our own national interests and position,” Igrutinovic emphasized.

Commenting on claims from geopolitical analysts that the issue of Ukraine, along with other unresolved conflicts, such as Cyprus, could be addressed through some form of international peace conference, Igrutinovic doubts this approach would apply to the Kosovo issue, as he notes it’s “a diplomatic game being played on a somewhat lower level.”

“Kosovo’s membership in the UN is not the key issue, nor is it essential for its eventual EU membership. Recognition by the five EU member states that have not recognized Kosovo isn’t the key either. Those countries will primarily weigh Serbia’s stance, while also factoring in their own internal issues. But the UN membership is a forum where Russia and China can wield significant influence. Clearly, this diplomatic game is being played at a lower, more Euro-regional level. That is what matters to them,” Igrutinovic concluded.