Ivic: I expect the U.S.–Serbia srategic dialogue to be formally launched once the NIS issue is resolved

Relations between Serbia and the United States are on an upward trajectory, with cooperation between the two countries becoming increasingly intensive in the areas of the economy, infrastructure and security, Petar Ivic of the Pupin Initiative has said. He stressed that although a formal strategic dialogue has yet to begin, concrete projects demonstrate that the partnership between Belgrade and Washington is growing stronger.

Commenting on the assessment by U.S. Chargé d'Affaires in Serbia Alexander Titolo that relations between Washington and Belgrade have entered a new era, Ivic pointed out that the most significant change lies in the United States' approach toward Serbia.

"The key message—and the main change compared to previous decades—is that the United States has developed a much greater interest in Belgrade, but this time not in order to punish Serbia or impose its own values, but exclusively to cooperate with Serbia as an equal partner," Ivic said.

According to him, following Donald Trump's return to office, the United States changed its approach, abandoning a policy of imposing values in favor of cooperation with countries capable of pursuing independent policies.

IT, Energy and Infrastructure as the Cornerstones of Cooperation

Speaking about the tangible results of bilateral cooperation, Ivic noted that Serbian-American relations are steadily improving, although this is not sufficiently visible to the public.

As examples, he highlighted Serbia's exports of IT services, of which 40 to 50 percent are destined for the United States, the investment by the U.S. Export-Import Bank in the deployment of Serbia's 5G network, cooperation with the Ohio National Guard, joint military exercises, the expansion of the Serbian Caucus in the U.S. Congress, as well as American support for the construction of the Djerdap 3 hydropower plant and the Morava Corridor motorway.

"These are exceptionally valuable, strategic projects in infrastructure connectivity and energy diversification. They are all key sectors for the development of our country, yet they are not particularly visible to the general public," Ivic emphasized.

NIS as a Potential Turning Point for Strategic Dialogue

Asked why a formal strategic dialogue has not yet been launched, Ivic said there was no clear reason for the delay, but suggested that resolving the issue of Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS) could prove to be a turning point.

"I expect that, once the NIS issue is resolved, the dialogue will also be formally launched. However, the dialogue itself would merely crown a partnership that is already exceptionally strong and well established," Ivic said.

Commenting on Serbia's economic cooperation with both the United States and China, Ivic observed that while there are certain similarities in their approaches, Western investments have a more positive impact on Serbia's domestic economy.

"Western investments are better because they generate what is known as a spillover effect for our economy. Foreign capital comes in, but local talent is employed, which benefits the domestic economy through job creation, improved quality of life and higher living standards," he said.

On the other hand, he noted that Chinese investments more frequently raise concerns regarding environmental standards and the engagement of Chinese contractors and subcontractors, which, in his view, results in a more limited positive impact on the Serbian economy.

Serbia's Room for Maneuver Is Narrowing; Its Place Is in the West

Speaking about Serbia's foreign policy position following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, Ivic assessed that the country's room for pursuing a multi-vector foreign policy has narrowed significantly.

"Serbia's room for maneuver is undoubtedly shrinking. I would say that Serbia belongs in the West—geographically, historically and civilizationally," Ivic stated.

He added that cooperation with Western partners does not preclude maintaining relations with other countries, but that Serbia should gradually orient itself toward the region to which it belongs geographically and, as he put it, "in civilizational terms."