Ivic: No tectonic shifts in US foreign policy toward the region

The US congressional midterm elections will not lead to tectonic shifts in the United States’ approach or foreign policy toward the region, as foreign policy is conducted by the executive branch, led by President Donald Trump, said Petar Ivic of the Pupin Initiative. He noted, however, that the election results could affect the pace of confirmation of US ambassadors to Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro.

Ivic told Kosovo Online that the midterms brought changes to the legislative branch of the US political system, while foreign policy remained in the hands of Trump, who still has two years left in office.

“The Trump administration has recognized Serbia’s importance as a key player in the region and has completely changed its approach. Under this administration, we have seen relations deepen, the launch of the Strategic Dialogue with Belgrade and the suspension of the dialogue with Pristina, so there is a strong possibility that these recognized interests will continue to shape policy and that cooperation will deepen,” he predicted.

Ivic pointed out, however, that Congress—and specifically the Senate—has authority over personnel appointments, which in the region includes the confirmation of ambassadors to Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Albania.

“The confirmation processes for the ambassadors to Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro are under way, and the administration has until January 3, when the new Senate with a Democratic majority takes office, to complete them. If that does not happen, the process would unfortunately have to start again from the beginning. The administration is aware of this, so we can expect the process to be accelerated and finalized,” Ivic said.

Regarding Pristina’s efforts to rebuild ties with Washington, Ivic said that work could be done to strengthen relations with members of the House and senators elected in the midterms, but reiterated that the decision on launching a strategic dialogue rested with the State Department and the White House.

“Therefore, for at least the next two years, Pristina cannot expect any breakthrough resulting from Trump’s electoral defeat,” he noted.

Ivic also left open the possibility that Democrats in both chambers of Congress could scrutinize projects linked to Donald Trump in the Western Balkans in an effort to obstruct the US president during the remaining two years of his final presidential term.

“There is a strong possibility of a historic precedent, with Democrats launching a third impeachment process against Trump,” Ivic said.