Kamberi: Kosovo's NATO membership more important to the West than the recognition process itself

The security policy and geopolitical trends in the Balkans are a higher priority for the West than the actual process of Kosovo's recognition by the five non-recognizers in the EU, Belgzim Kamberi from the Institute for Social Policy "Musine Kokalari" says for Kosovo Online. He believes that the European Parliament will not change its course after the elections, but geopolitical trends might shift after the US elections.

“It is hard to predict what new geopolitical trends will emerge. One possibility that could bring some change might be the election of Donald Trump in the United States, considering his unconventional political profile. As for the European elections, the European Parliament is likely to maintain its policy or course because the majority remains the same as before,” the analyst from Pristina says.

What might change, he notes, is the situation at the national level.

“For example, France will have new parliamentary elections, and Marine Le Pen might win. In Germany, the Social Democrats might lose power. We see that the far-right hopes to take power in the main states of the European Union and in the United States, but it is hard to know whether there will be any significant political, geopolitical, or global order changes,” he believes.

Speaking about the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, our interlocutor believes that the international community will continue to seek the implementation of the agreements reached, but does not exclude the possibility of reopening some "old questions."

“Will there remain a need to implement the Community of Serb Municipalities, or will something change in a new geopolitical order? Will we maybe return to ideas about territorial changes or border corrections that were discussed in 2016-2017? It’s hard to know at this point,” he states.

Commenting on the idea of American professor and analyst Edward Joseph that the US President should appoint a special envoy for the recognition of Kosovo, Kamberi says it is currently unlikely, primarily because Biden is at the end of his term.

“That will be possible if Biden wins the elections. It is not excluded, although there might be a greater focus on integrating Kosovo into NATO. Security policy and geopolitical trends in the Balkans take precedence over the political process of Kosovo’s recognition by the EU non-recognizers. So I think that if there is any significant dynamic, it might be more in the context of Kosovo’s integration into NATO due to the security circumstances we face after all the crises, not only the war in Ukraine but also in Israel and other situations that have security implications that can destabilize the Balkans,” Kamberi says.

He adds that the risk of destabilization and security conditions between Western and non-Western countries could eventually lead to new recognitions of Kosovo.

“In this context, even countries that have not recognized Kosovo – I’m talking about countries from the so-called liberal democratic world – might see this as urgent due to the rivalry between liberal and illiberal states, authoritarian states and democratic liberal states, which are becoming increasingly polarized. Moreover, due to the new world order that might change with Trump's election, as well as developments in the so-called ‘new order’ between China, Russia, the European Union, and the US, they might assess the urgency for even Spain and other EU countries to recognize Kosovo,” Kamberi concludes.